Tag: john lackey

Cards’ do or die status is nothing new

· Leave a comment ·

imageedit_1_6786761481This is it, folks. A 162 game season comes down to a do or die at Wrigley Field today for the St. Louis Cardinals. Most of you won’t get to see the game, and for that some should be thankful. Just listen to the cubicle next to you. Listen for the screams, cries and excitement. Baseball is a game of endurance and stress trading spots on a bus heading towards the brutal cold of winter.

After dropping Games 2 and 3 to the Cubs, the Cards are against the wall, scratching for space. Things started swimmingly on Friday night and suddenly took a detour away from Pleasantville. Things went terribly wrong. For once, the bats escape blame and the pitching is the culprit. How things have changed for the team with the most wins in baseball and best overall pitching staff.

While Game 2 was a breakdown in fundamentals, Game 3 was a launching pad. A Michael Bay film instead of a dynamic chess duel in the vein of The Hunt for Red October. A stunt sequence. The Cubs hit six home runs Monday night off Cardinals pitching, including three off Michael Wacha and one off Adam Wainwright. Yes, the Waino that some wanted to see start for Wacha. No pitcher went unscathed last night. Everybody had a stain on their shoulders.

Sure, Wacha’s 5th inning was ill fated. He got through four innings while allowing only two runs to a dangerous lineup but Mike Matheny sent him back out there for a third trip through the order. Even though he was hanging his curve and couldn’t locate his changeup. Wacha went out there and Kris Bryant hammered a two run home run. Kevin Siegrist came in for the 182nd time in 2015 and served up a blast to Anthony Rizzo.

After the bats drew the game to 5-4, Seth Maness came in, recorded an out and allowed a scratch single. Suddenly, Matheny wanted to bring in Wainwright. Why? I have no idea. The Cards needed a groundball and Maness is the best at getting those. Everybody wearing blue at Wrigley knew Wainwright throws a first pitch fastball. He did and Jorge Soler hammered his second home of the series, a blast that would prove to be the game winner. Just look at Waino’s face after Stephen Piscotty’s meaningless two run home run in the 9th. The heartbreak was deafening.

Here they are. Tuesday afternoon. Down 2-1 in the series and desperately needing to get this series back to Busch Stadium for a winner take all Game 5. Can they make it happen? Can the Cards pull out a victory at Wrigley?

The ball will be handed to John Lackey on three days rest. By now, more than a few people have told you his stats on this kind of rest. Two decent starts. Both taking place over ten years ago. Expecting anything more than 5-6 innings out of Lackey today is crazy. He’s 36 year old and pitching in a sandbox with high winds. If he keeps the Cards in the game, fans should be grateful.

This game will come down to the bullpen doing a good job. The Cards bats aren’t full throttle wrecking balls this series but they have a pulse. Jason Hammel is a hittable pitcher whom the Cards have beaten up this season for seven earned runs in 10 innings of work. Runs will be pushed across the plate but can the pen protect a lead?

Jonathan Broxton shouldn’t be allowed to pitch. He’s good for a home run or two baserunners per inning these days. Adam Wainwright should only START an inning. If needed, Lance Lynn should be used today. He was supposed to pitch anyway and can give the Cards big innings if needed. Tyler Lyons is down there somewhere and can be valuable. Jaime Garcia SHOULD NOT pitch. He’s never pitched out of relief and making his first time happen in a raucous environment against a power crazy team wouldn’t be wise. Save him for Game 5.

Can the Cards bullpen hold the Cubs off if they are handed a lead? That is the story heading into Game 4. Watch if you dare!

This do or die status is nothing new for the Birds. In 2011, they were down 2-1 against Philadelphia and came back to win game 5 in that classic Carpenter-Halladay showdown. They were down 2-1 against Pittsburgh in 2013 and came back on the road in Game 4 to force a Game 5 at home which they won. It’s not impossible and a situation the team has grown quite comfortable in.

The brutal part is the idea of losing to the Cubs but ladies and gents, this is a 97 win team. They aren’t a band of scrubs. They are good and will be for the foreseeable future. Get used to these battles in the NL Central. This NLDS is a preview of things to come.

Just don’t count the Cards out yet. The Cubs won’t be doing that after seeing their untouchable ace pitcher, Jake Arrieta, allow four earned runs Monday night for the first time since mid June. Both of these teams are great. For all the offense that has been on display this week, it will come down to which bullpen can be more effective. That’s it.

Play ball!

Finally, Jaime Garcia is back in postseason action

· Leave a comment ·

Jaime 2015It’s been a long time since Jaime Garcia has been healthy when the playoff started. Four years to be exact. I’m sorry, but 2012 doesn’t count. When Jaime Garcia took the mound in an NLDS game against the Washington Nationals, lasted less than 3 innings, got hammered and informed the press afterwards he had pitched hurt. That wasn’t as shocking of a revelation as Manny Pacquiao saying he fought Floyd Mayweather Jr. with a bum rotator cuff but it was enough for General Manager John Mozeliak to question Garcia’s loyalty. The next two seasons Garcia made a total of 16 starts and zero playoff innings.

Flash forward to this weekend and Garcia is ready to give the Cards a dose of nasty on the mound against the Cubs or Pirates in the NLDS. He doesn’t have to hide an injury this time. Just be deceptive enough to cause hitters to go insane at the plate trying to guess where his next pitch wants to dance. This Jaime Garcia is a far better pitcher than the young one who took the mound in the memorable Game 6 against the Rangers in 2011.

In every way, Garcia was more efficient in 2015 and harder to hit. His fielding independent pitching was 3.01 and his ERA+(which adjusts it for a player’s ballpark) was 162, which is 62 points above average. Garcia was good on the road, at Busch and anywhere else the Cards needed him to pitch. This is a guy who doesn’t need a lot of pitches to break a lineup. He doesn’t induce 7 foul balls in an at bat like Lance Lynn or struggle with his location like Michael Wacha. Garcia’s pitches have so much movement that hitters have zero clue which pitch is coming or where it will end up. His ERA of 2.43 and WHIP of 1.05 is filthy and among the best in the league. Once an risky gamble of talent, Garcia looms as one of the best kept secrets in October.

Is he pitching differently? Yes and no. In 2011, Garcia relied on his four seam and two seam fastball along with his slider and changeup. His slider got the most whiffs per swing while his two seamer did damage as well. In 2015, he is relying on that slider to collect a high whiff rate and throwing his fastball. Over the 2015 season, Garcia has thrown his fastball an average of 26 percent while relying on his two seamer and slider. Garcia isn’t throwing the curve a lot in 2015, but hitters are swinging and missing on it when he does choose the bender. As the season has gotten older, Garcia has used his changeup more as well. If there is one change between 2011 and 2015, it’s the higher use of his four seam fastball to go with his regular two seam heater attack. When he throws off speed, it appears as a golf ball to hitters.

Call it older age and higher knowledge or a more adept sense of his craft, but Garcia is a different pitcher right now and it’s exciting to watch.

A healthy Garcia gives the Cardinals a unique weapon in the playoffs. A guy who can pitch anywhere and carries a huge chip on his shoulder for time lost. While Garcia is still only 29 years old, he has to feel like his career is just beginning and there’s a lot to prove as the Cards varied assortment of young pitching filters through. Pitching that is cheaper and more flexible in their options than his own plans. 2015 may not feel like the final stand for Garcia in a Cardinal uniform to fans, but for Garcia it’s a chance to bury the hatchet.

For the first time in four years, Jaime Garcia is a legit playoff weapon for the Cardinals.

Research courtesy of Baseball Reference and Brooks Baseball

Looking back on the 2015 St. Louis Cardinals

· Leave a comment ·

Piscotty injuryAs a general rule of thumb, sports fans shouldn’t take anything for granted when it comes to their teams making the playoffs, but the Cardinals make it hard to be civil in that area. For the fifth straight season, the Birds on the Bat will enter the playoffs. Second only to the New York Yankees in playoff wins since 2000, the Cards begin another round of October action as a top dog, the only team with 100 wins.  The hunt for a 12th championship begins on October 9th so what do you do until then? Talk about playoff rosters and look back on the season that got us to this moment. I’ll save roster talk for Sunday or Monday. Now I want to look back on what just happened…in the last six months. Ready or not, here I come.

*Mike Matheny solidified himself as Manager of the Year. I don’t care about narratives, storybooks or whatever jargon his critics will drudge up. Matheny’s work this year was tremendous. Not only did he win, but he did so in the most improbable manner possible. Yes, he plays his guys like Jon Jay too often and weighs too hard on his closer Trevor Rosenthal, but the job that Matheny did under the circumstances is more than admirable. It needs to be teachable. With his training room full of veteran limbs seeking care and the Memphis roster being emptied on the big league club, Matheny pulled the right triggers in directing his team towards a triple digit win season. If wins aren’t the standard that a manager should be weighed by, I am not sure what system you are running. If it’s the trust a player feels in his leader, Matheny led in that category back in 2012. In his 4th season, Matheny had to dig deep, do a lot of patchwork and find a way. He did.

*Injuries. In other words, the medical attention this team needed and how it didn’t seem to affect the box score. 2015 will be marked by the blows this team took and its ability to keep moving forward. I’ve overused the Rocky analogy but it just fits this Redbird team. They lost their ace pitcher in Adam Wainwright three weeks into the season, lost their starting first baseman, starting left fielder, starting centerfielder, and parts of their bullpen and just kept moving forward. How do you define resiliency in baseball? The ability to collects results no matter what gets thrown in your direction. This is no fairy tale. This was a boxing match and the Cards won by a landslide on points. They slipped the jab, moved around the ring and kept their feet moving for the entire fight before dropping the hammer in Pittsburgh on Wednesday.

*The year that Jaime Garcia finished a season healthy. He didn’t get going until late May and missed a few starts in June with a muscle pull, but Garcia endured and pitched the best ball of his career. The 20 starts mark the most he has put together since 2012, but look at the difference in performance. In 2012, his WHIP was 1.36. In 2015, it was barely above 1.00. In 2012, he was worth 0.6 Wins above replacement. In 2015, he was worth 3.9 WAR to the Cards. An ERA that was 3.92 in 2012 shrunk to 2.43 this season. The new Garcia brandished a healthy shoulder as well as a more efficient pitcher on the mound. The last time the lefthander entered the playoffs, he was hiding a bum shoulder that would self destruct in the series against the Washington Nationals. This fall, he enters as arguably the Cards nastiest pitcher. A weapon instead of a liability.

*John Lackey turns back the clock and redefines home cooking. Lackey put on a show from early June through the rest of the season, but his work at Busch Stadium was unreal. Posting a 1.93 ERA at home in 17 starts, Lackey gave the Cards league best rotation a little extra grit and pitched above his preseason expectations.

*Carlos Martinez goes from “5 inning emotionally unhinged guy” to arguable ace inside six months. Martinez stepped up in more ways than one in 2015, becoming one of the team’s most steady arms and enjoying a stretch of 11 games of consecutive quality starts. He won 14 games, struck out 184, and pitched 179.1 innings. His season was cut short, but he proved that he belongs near the top of this rotation and not as a #5 guy. If he keeps getting better, Martinez is going to be a handful for years to come.

*Matt Carpenter puts together another quiet MVP type year. The man exploded out of the gate in April and May only to severely stumble in June and July. Where Carp goes, the offense goes with him. When he returned to the leadoff spot on July, Carpenter collected four hits(2 home runs) and reminded people that sometimes conventional wisdom doesn’t apply to athletes. While it would be easy to assume he could hit anywhere in the lineup, Carpenter does prefer the leadoff spot and the stats backed it up. In the second half, Carpenter has hit 19 home runs and slugged .592. An on base specialist for his life, Carpenter has hit 28 home runs and smoked 44 doubles in 2015. He’s scored 101 runs and drawn 81 walks to go with the eye opening strikeout total of 151. With a bigger stick comes a higher probability to miss, so I’ll take the K’s with the extra power. On a team that struggled to exhibit power, Carpenter has supplied the most from the leadoff position. After a midseason swoon, he found his stoke in a big way.

*Jason Heyward answers the bell and fulfills the promise. He came to the team nearly a year ago in the wake of Oscar Taveras’ passing, and was ridiculed in April when he started off with a chill in his bat. From May 1st, Heyward has been steady at the plate and a renegade in the field. Heading towards another gold glove and owning 9 assists(all that seemed to be game changing plays) in right field, Heyward leads the team in overall WAR and versatility. He may always let the HR/RBI baseball card mafia down, but when it comes to all around game and the ability to change it, Heyward fulfilled the promise of the winter preview. The team would be smart to sign him.

*Yadier Molina works wonders behind the plate again. Sure, his bat may not exhibit the power Yadier displayed in the past, but he still drove in 61 runs and handled this MLB best pitching staff. When it comes to catchers and WAR, the measurements aren’t fair or detailed enough to truly show how important Molina is to this team. So you look at catcher’s ERA, which is the average the pitcher has when Molina is behind the plate. Molina led the National League with a 2.79 CERA and caught 41 percent of potential base stealers. With all the injuries and newcomers to this staff and balancing it all, Molina showed once again why he is so valuable.

*The rookies make a dent. Randal Grichuk could have been an easy rookie of the year candidate if he doesn’t get injured. His 47 extra base hits still rank among the leaders in rookie hitters. Stephen Piscotty joined the team in late July and has done nothing but hit since he arrived. The sacrifice fly against Atlanta in July. The 2 run double off the Cubs in early September. Piscotty and Grichuk combined for a highly impressive season that gave the Cards a much needed boost. Tommy Pham finally made an impact in the second half and has put himself in roster contention. The next man up method is so memorable due to guys like Piscotty, Grichuk and Pham.

There are others. Trevor Rosenthal had a great season, slashing 20 points off his WHIP while saving 48 games. Kevin Siegrist turned into a dynamic setup man and a workhorse. Kolten Wong’s sophomore season had its up and downs but he still has 43 extra base hits. Matt Holliday’s power numbers were down in an injury shortened season but his OBP is still potent. Lance Lynn suffered a few bumps in the road down the stretch but still gave the Cards another durable solid season. Jhonny Peralta’s production didn’t dip much from 2014, even though his second half wasn’t the best.

In a season that seemed more rockier than the record actually showed due to injuries, the Cardinals showed why they are so tough and will be for years. They react instead of panic.  They didn’t make a big midseason trade or enjoy a smooth ride this season. They didn’t have a 30 HR/100 RBI guy or two. They couldn’t hit at times. They made a lot of games close and painful. They emptied their Memphis roster. In the end, they won 100 games. While the Mets and Blue Jays had to trade their way to an improved roster, the Cards relied on their internal methods like they always do and come into the playoffs stronger than ever.

While fans shouldn’t expect this to happen every year, it’s hard to not think of October baseball without the Cardinals coming in as favorites. It’s as likely as Pumpkin Spice Latte’s brewing at Starbucks and leaves growing on trees.

Relax. Leave your nails alone. Save your stress and anxiety for next weekend when the real games start. The hunt for the World Series. The quest for 11 wins begins on October 9th. Are you ready? The Cardinals are and this month should be another memorable run.

The Lance Lynn experience

· Leave a comment ·

I’ll be honest. Watching Lance Lynn pitch isn’t easy.

LynnWhen I think of Lynn on the mound, I think about Joe Cocker’s classic tune, Have a Little Faith in Me. Every time he throws 30 pitches in an inning, it plays in my head. Every time a hitter fouls off continuous inner half fastballs, it plays in my head. Have a little faith in a man known for throwing primary fastballs towards the plate for 6-7 innings every 5 days. Lynn doesn’t wish to fool hitters and that’s why he’s a hard pitcher to watch. He takes the mound, gets the ball and changes speeds on the dial of his heater for a couple hours. He may mix in a curve or a change, but they are salad dressing on his chef salad assortment. He lives and dies by his four seam fastball and two seam cutter.

In 2015, it’s been a struggle for Lynn, especially in the second half. In his last 7 starts coming into today’s tumultuous match at Wrigley, Lynn’s ERA was 5.70 with 18 strikeouts and 17 walks in only 30 innings with a WHIP of 1.77. You can’t chalk that up to a lack of run support or who is catching Lynn behind the plate. That is a lack of effectiveness from a starting pitcher who turned a corner in 2014 with a brilliant second half ERA of 2.22 after experiencing setbacks in previous closing season grinds.

Friday, Lynn walked six in 3.1 innings against the Cubs, allowing 3 earned runs and 3 hits with 77 pitches thrown. 77 pitches for 9 outs. The Wrigley start epitomizes a rough bookend for the veteran righthander. When you look at his 2015 opening start at Wrigley(6 innings, 1 earned run, 87 pitches) and the September 18th start, it’s hard to not notice the stains on the window of his season.

Is something wrong medically with him? Is it the notorious blister on his pitching hand? Is it a groin injury? The ankle turn he dealt with in August? Hard to tell. His velocity doesn’t appear to be diminished but the performance just hasn’t been there. Is it fair to have faith in Lance Lynn, defend him, criticize him or outright bash him at this point?

For now, hold the bashing and the brick wall defense and be worried about this recent trend because time is running out. This is rough but can be turned around with a couple efficient starts. After Carlos Martinez suffered a rough patch, he bounced back. Can Lynn do that? Why not? This isn’t exactly Don Draper drinking stupor territory but it’s also just baseball related stumbles.

The six month grind can get a pitcher. After he exited the game, Lynn unleashed a verbal tirade on the home plate umpire for a zone he didn’t like. You just don’t see that from the man. He may shout, scream and show emotion on the pitching mound but rarely loses it on an umpire once he leaves the game. Today the game of baseball got to Lynn in a way fans rarely witness.

The better question is does this rough patch cost Lynn a postseason rotation spot? The Cardinals sport a historically great rotation that will be hard to trim down when October 6th hits. Do you keep Lance Lynn in a four man rotation and boot out someone else? If so, who do you take out? Martinez? That’s an electric arm to pin down. Jaime Garcia isn’t a reliever and shouldn’t be. John Lackey is arguably the most valuable starter in the group and Michael Wacha has looked like a stopper recently.

Where does Lynn fit in? This isn’t a time to bring up who was pro-Lynn and anti-Lynn back when or where they are now. This is about finding the best four man group to win a World Series win. There are many reasons to love Lance Lynn and I’ve written about it. However, it’s hard to not see the downward trend in his second half performance. What do you do with a struggling pitcher if he exits the season in a funk and you only need four guys in a playoff rotation?

Lynn has three starts remaining, barring any juggling of the rotation. He starts tonight against Cincinnati at home, at Pittsburgh and at Atlanta to finish the season. All three will be crucial in figuring out where his playoff status lies.

Love or hate Lance Lynn, it’s never easy watching the man pitch but it’s no time to give up on the pitcher.

John Lackey: Most Valuable Cardinal

· Leave a comment ·

Outlaw cowboy William Munny walks into a bar carrying a double barrel shotgun and asks someone, “Who owns this joint?” That’s John Lackey in 2015. He walks into any baseball park, asks where the mound is and delivers a gem. It doesn’t matter who the opponent is or what the stakes are. The Abilene, Texas native is having his best season in 8 years.

On Thursday in Milwaukee, John Lackey dominated. He pitched seven innings, needed less than 90 pitches and restricted the Brewers from starting anything. He struck out 8 and allowed only 5 hits, lowering his earned run average to 2.79. Unlike other rotation colleagues, Lackey has been a steady beast the entire season.

When the Cards acquired Lackey stout at 2014’s trade deadline, some fans weren’t happy because the team lost some good “team guys” in Joe Kelly and Allen Craig. The deal was mint to me. Lackey was a proven veteran, someone who had been to war and back. A guy who helped shut the doors on the Cards 2013 season in Game 6 of the World Series. It also helped that Lackey would only cost the team a measly 500K in 2015.

Lackey was solid in Red the rest of 2014 and in the playoffs, but he’s been unreal in 2015. With Adam Wainwright sidelined, Lackey picked up the sheriff’s badge, blew it off and patched it onto his chest. With a few grunts, he’s supplied the team with that rare edge. Lackey pitches angry, carries his emotions on his sleeve, chest and forehead, and treats other teams like impostor’s on his will.

Lackey touched 200 innings, 150 strikeouts and left Milwaukee with a WAR(wins above replacement via baseball reference) of 5.1. That represents his highest WAR since the 2007 season. He has a 3-1 strikeouts to walks ratio and has scattered 18 home runs over those 200 frames. His fielding independent ERA isn’t too swanky at 3.57 but his ERA+ of 141 is quite nice. All in all, Lackey has been money and unlike Mike in Swingers, he knows it.

Lackey has even shed the home/road splits that followed him into this season. After a rough outing in Colorado(easily his worst as a Cardinal) on June 8th, Lackey has been great in road grays in 8 of his last 9 starts(the one mishap coming in San Diego where the Cards played regrettable defense behind him).

People make a big deal about quality starts, but Lackey takes it to another level. He provides the “high” quality starts. He’s pitched at least seven innings and allowed three runs or less in 19 different games.

Does all this cream and sugar mean the Lackey grounds will return in 2016? Nope. He’s pitching himself out of “comeback to the Lou” territory. As I stated last month, Lackey will receive a 3 year deal and the Cards will likely retain Jaime Garcia’s services. It’s just business.

For now, appreciate what Lackey is doing for a team in need of a veteran compass in a young rotation. He’s the dude, the general and the cowboy all in one leg kick and bullet to the plate. Come playoff time, he will be a force you want on your side and it won’t matter where the game takes place.

While he won’t get as much press or attention as Michael Wacha or Carlos Martinez, John Lackey has been the most valuable Cardinal in 2015, bang for buck. Who called that a year ago? If you did, pat yourself on the back and have some coffee for me.

Will John Lackey pitch in St. Louis next season?

· Leave a comment ·

imageedit_1_6878099780Ask any saloon owner and the last thing you want to do is lose your best cowboy to another town next season. With the way St. Louis Cardinals starter John Lackey is pitching right now, the question remains swirling around my head. Will he come back and pitch for the Birds next year?

The Texan has turned back the clock in 2015, reaching 10 wins for the 12th consecutive season he’s pitched in. He’s more efficient than ever, racking up a 2.87 earned run average and a 1.18 WHIP with 116 strikeouts in 159.2 innings this season. He’s only walked 38 batters. He scatters singles, allows a lot of singles and the occasional home run but for the most part Lackey has stepped into the Chris Carpenter role since he joined the team last July. He’s an angry man on the mound and lets his emotions fly. He commands respect that other pitchers can only dream of. He’s more than just a talented arm. He’s a simple man with a plan who hasn’t added a pitch in years yet remains efficient.

Is it enough to bring him back next year? Sure it is. I just don’t think Lackey will want what the Cardinals offer him. I don’t see John Mozeliak offering a soon to be 37 year old more than a 1 year deal with the fleet of young pitchers coming up through the minor leagues like a locomotive carrying silver bullets into town. Put yourself in Lackey’s position. If you are pitching this well, and doing it for the bargain price of 500,000 dollars(Cards slipped him a bonus at midseason to enhance the earnings), would you accept a lesser deal at this point in your career?

I think Lackey will look for a parachute deal, something to float away into retirement on top of. He won’t go pitch for the Marlins or anything, but other contending teams will pay him good money and guarantee it for 2-3 seasons. I think of the “who comes back” ordeal to center around Jaime Garcia and Lackey. Right now, brittle body or not, Garcia has a better chance of returning simply because he has half the leverage that Lackey does and he needs to prove he can start 25-30 games in a season again.

I’d love to have Lackey stout back for another round of drinks. He’s tough. Once Waino fell down and Lance Lynn struggled a bit early on, Lackey’s role became enhanced this season. With his fine work Saturday night, John Lackey has hurled 12 quality starts in a row, nine of them covering 7 innings or more. He has been one of the most impressive if not the biggest bright spot in the league’s best rotation.

Enjoy him while he’s here folks. Lackey is exactly the guy the Cards need in the postseason, a guy who has closed out two teams on two different teams to win the World Series(including the Cardinals in 2013). As a competitor taking the ball every five days, Lackey is one of the best. As the oldest starting pitcher on the Cards, he’s hanging with these younger guns just fine.

While he may not be a Cardinal past 2015, John Lackey has proven to be worth every penny and then some this season. I think that’s enough to sleep on for Cardinals fans.