Category: St. Louis Cardinals

7 Ways Matt Holliday can make an impact

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imageedit_1_6786761481Health is finally reentering the St. Louis Cardinals clubhouse, as Matt Adams is back in the starting lineup and Matt Holliday has been activated from the disabled list. Randal Grichuk has returned and made an impact, and within a week the Cards could be fully stocked with lethal weapons in the field. With the rise of Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty, guys like Holliday have been forgotten about a bit this summer. After all, Holliday has only played in 11 games since June 8th. His value can’t be misplaced by even the casual fan, but just how important may have lingered. Here are 7 reasons Holliday can make an impact.

7. He will force weaker bats to be weeded out of the lineup. Slumping bats like Brandon Moss, Jon Jay and Peter Bourjos won’t be able to accumulate as many starts with Holliday returning to left field.

6. He will bring a sense of power back to the Cardinals lineup. Sure, 2015 hasn’t been a glamorous season for Holliday bombs(4 in 207 at bats), but everybody knows the big guy’s bat gets extra hot in September and always has the capability to launch one.

5. Love or hate the stat but Holliday likes coming up with meaningful hits. He was among the league leaders in game winning hits the past two seasons. His average with runners in scoring position is .400 with a .733 slugging percentage in 45 at bats in 2015. Over the past three seasons, his average with RISP(432 at bats) is .331.

4. He’s an on base percentage machine. Before he went down this season, pitchers were having a hard time getting this Hulk out. He had a .409 on base percentage when he reinjured the quad on July 29th.

3. He will stabilize the lineup. When you put Holliday back into the 3rd spot, Jhonny Peralta can be moved down and the lineup reloads so to speak. Piscotty can stay at #2 and Peralta, Molina and Adams can shuffle lower in the order. When Holliday was healthy and thriving, this lineup was scoring big time.

2. He likes playing his rivals. From 2012-15, Holliday is hitting .310(269-866) with 38 HR and 155 RBI off his National League division opponents.

1. The effect on the team. Any time you get a well respected veteran climbs back onto the active roster, the entire roster gets a boost. Rookies want to prove their worth and the fellow vets get an extra kick in the butt. The return of Holliday should help the Cardinals in many ways physically but mentally there will be an effect as well.

The N.L. Central has gotten too close for comfort, with the lead dangling down to as low as 2 games before play started in Milwaukee Tuesday. The return of Holliday can have a positive effect on this tiring Cardinals team. Expect the Hulk of Stillwater, Oklahoma to provide some big moments down the stretch once he gets his legs back at the plate.

The Cardinals bring the big sticks to Miller Park

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For the past few years, the St. Louis Cardinals lack of power is well known. They rank near the bottom of the National League in home runs. However, if there is one place the Birds love to carry the big sticks to play, it’s Miller Park against the Milwaukee Brewers. At the start of Sunday’s action, the Cards have won 4 of 6 games there this season, scoring 24 runs and cranking 7 home runs. However, let’s look at the last two seasons of play at Miller Park.

While their average at Miller Park since the start of the 2013 season may be decent at best(.282), the manner in which the Cardinals score their runs differs from every other road park they play in. The Cardinals have scored 143 in 27 games, an average of 5.3 runs per game. In those 27 games, the Cards have amassed 412 total bases and 42 doubles.

In 2014, the Cards cranked 14 home runs, more than doubling their total from Wrigley Field and Great American Ballpark. In 2013, they smashed 19 doubles and 15 home runs at Miller Park, slugging .500. Om 2015, the Cardinals have amassed 12 doubles in just 5 games.

There are certain Cardinals who love hitting at Miller, including Jhonny Peralta. In his 15 games there, Peralta is 23-58(.396) with 4 home runs and 13 RBI. There’s a reason Mike Matheny doesn’t rest the guy there. Jhonny likes to rake. The injured Jon Jay found success at Miller Park, collecting 4 hits in 10 at bats in April. Overall, in the last three seasons, Jay has a .353 batting average. Matt Holliday doesn’t find the average but he has hit 6 home runs in his 20 games played. Other Cardinals like Matt Adams and Yadier Molina have also hit well there. Ex-Cards and former RBI machine Allen Craig hit .393 there in 2013. As a team, the Cards have slugged .460 at the park since 2013.

Their lack of power overall may be hard to deny, but when the Birds fly into Milwaukee, the big bats ride with them. It’s a place they have found plenty of comfort the past few years. In 27 games, the Cardinals have amassed a record of 19-8, dominating an opponent that challenged them for the division title just last year. The rivalry between these teams from the red hot battles of 2011 may have died off over the past few seasons, but the ability of the Cards to handle the Brewers in their own house is apparent.

When people think of 2015 and Miller Park, they will probably think about losing Adam Wainwright there on April 25th. They can find some peace in the Birds record and ability to hit for power in Milwaukee.

Cardinals: Sky isn’t falling but it’s ugly

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Mandatory Credit: David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports
Mandatory Credit: David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

Important note to start out with. It’s not giving up on a team to call a recent string of play ugly.

The St. Louis Cardinals are in the midst of a bad stretch of baseball, their worst in 2015. Their September record is 3-8. Their lead over the Pittsburgh Pirates in the National League Central Division of 6.5 games a week ago is now 3 games before the Pirates begin play tonight against Milwaukee. There is only so much kool-aid a man can drink before he recognizes what he is seeing is bad for business.

A slump is one thing, but the timing of this particular slump and the opponents beating the Cardinals make this one hard to digest. After dominating the Central all year, the Cards lost series at home to Chicago and Pittsburgh and one on the road this weekend to Cincinnati. Take away the miraculous come from behind win Wednesday and this streak is very ugly.

It doesn’t help when the Cardinals are losing to average rookie pitchers and bad teams. For example, with the three wins in a row this week against St. Louis, the Reds have moved to 27.5 games behind the first place Birds.

This weekend, the following Reds rookie starting pitchers have shut the Cards down. John Lamb, Michael Lorenzen, and Anthony Desclafani. These kinds of pitchers and teams are the lowly scrubs that the Cards need to dismiss and destroy in order to keep a stranglehold on the division. At the most important time of the season, the Birds are playing their worst baseball.

Was a slump like this to be expected from a team clinging to great pitching and dealing with the worst slate of injuries in the league? Yes, but that doesn’t make the results digestible. While the pitching has come back to earth the past 10 games, the hitting is still what’s plaguing this team.

A look at a few hitters and their performances these past 7 games. 

Mark Reynolds 0-11 with 7 strikeouts

Brandon Moss-0-21 with 11 strikeouts

Jon Jay 3-17 with 7 strikeouts

Jhonny Peralta 2-19 with 5 strikeouts

The rest of the lineup won’t get a pass but these are the prime suspects. Jay clearly hasn’t improved since his return from a persisting wrist injury and Moss’ supposed hot streak has burned off. Peralta’s second half slump continues. Reynolds’ bat has slowed down.

Matt Holliday can’t return fast enough. Matt Adams and Randal Grichuk have returned from the disabled list but are not 100%. That needs to change. The lineup needs something. With Holliday’s return, Stephen Piscotty moves to first base and pushes cold bats like Reynolds and Moss to the bench and Grichuk’s return won’t give Mike Matheny the opportunity to use Jon Jay as much.

Other bad news. Tommy Pham’s once hot bat can’t find the starting lineup and Tony Cruz needs at bats to get ready for his undeserved playoff roster appearance. There’s no refuge in sight save for Greg Garcia’s surprising presence at shortstop and second base and Kolten Wong’s return this weekend. To say there is a light at the end of the tunnel is a tough sell, even for a team that has endured all kinds of setbacks and obstacles this season.

17 of the final 20 games this season are against N.L. Central opponents. The Cards finish the road trip against the Reds, Milwaukee Brewers and Cubs before coming home to deal with the Reds and Brewers and finish with the Pirates and Atlanta Braves. It’s a weak schedule on paper, but any opponent looms as a threat right now, especially inside the division.

Optimism lies in the belief that the pitching will right the ship and the returning veterans can add some firepower. The Cardinals can use any sort of offense at the moment. After seeing their division lead shrink, the Cards have walked into Cincinnati and scored just 3 runs in 27 innings. That’s pathetic for a team with the best record in baseball. When your rivals aren’t quitting, there’s no room for a slip.

Is the sky falling in St. Louis? No. Is it apparent that something is wrong and there’s a malfunction in the system and a fix is required? Yes. The Cardinals need a boost. Who will give it to them? Stay tuned. September just got interesting. Have the Cards ever made it easy on their fans?

What’s wrong with Jhonny Peralta?

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Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

There’s nothing like a baseball season and its effect on a player. 162 games. Seven months. Lots of travel. Day to day action. Little rest mentally. St. Louis Cardinals’ shortstop Jhonny Peralta has been a steady player since he arrived in St. Louis in November of 2013. He played in 157 games last season and has played in 138 games of a possible 142 games this season. That’s serious work and something that must be taken into account when trying to locate the demise in Peralta’s production since the All Star break. The big picture outlook has Peralta’s production slowly slipping since the end of May. Let’s look at it from April to September.

April-.316 batting average, .825 OPS(slugging plus on base percentage)

May-.306 BA, .941 OPS

June-.274 BA, .720 OPS

July-.262 BA, .737 OPS

August-.242 BA, .612 OPS

That’s the thing about stats. The simplest ones can draw a picture big enough for any fan to see. Since the end of May, after a great start to the season, Peralta has delivered big hits but not as consistent as before. Is this wear and tear? It’s hard to avoid pointing how the Cards don’t have a reliable backup for Peralta at shortstop, or at least one they believe in. Peralta has played in more games this season than any Cardinal starter. The drop in Peralta’s slugging percentage is particularly telling.

April-.468

May-.556

June-.400

July-.421

August-.303

Peralta’s reputation isn’t hitting 30 home runs and driving in 100 but he is depended on in this lineup hitting 3rd or 4th to produce runs. Jhonny Peralta hasn’t hit a home run since August 1st and his OPS since the All Star break is .626 with just three home runs. The Cards don’t have huge depth on the ML roster that exists as exciting at the position. How much can you lean on a player before he crumbles? Outside of Yadier Molina, no player on the team has been leaned on more than Peralta.

What’s wrong with Peralta? Wear and tear. He’s played in 298 games out of a possible 304 since arriving in St. Louis. I’m sorry folks but that’s where the Tulo comparisons hit a halt. JP is in a massive slump but there’s nothing physically wrong with him. His stats are right in line with his career rate, especially when it comes to average, on base and slugging. 2015’s season hasn’t been as power packed as 2014 but overall his WAR of 1.7 won’t reach his 2014 rate of 5.7(baseball reference).

With 20 games to go, Peralta can pick things up and finish better but a little rest wouldn’t hurt. Rest helps players more often than not. While it’s not common to sit everyday players in a stretch run, Peralta looks burnt. There’s room there to let Jhonny find a little mental clarity.

How does Peralta get rest? Play Greg Garcia. The kid comes up with big game changing hits and hasn’t gotten a real shot. While Peralta will more than likely keep on grinding, turning Garcia loose wouldn’t hurt and you can see what the kid has in store for the future as Peralta’s age and contract start to climb.

Jhonny Peralta’s value to this club is underrated and will never be appreciated as much as it should. He needs to get right. The Cards need to address this sooner rather than later. Plug in Garcia. Find some rest for Peralta, especially as some missing bats filter back into the lineup. In the end, it will benefit both player and club.

Cardinals recap: 5 Things We Learned 

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 Final score-Reds 11, Cardinals 0

Five things. 

1. Perspective. With the loss, the Cardinals now only lead Cincinnati by 29.5 games in the NL Central division. Spoiler territory has its dangers but in the end this was an ugly loss that only cost the team a single game. 

2. Lack of execution. The Cards had their chances against John Lamb, who walked 6 in his five innings but also struck out 6 batters. He matched his salt with pepper and kept the Cards at bay long enough for his team to pile on big innings. 

3.  Attention Mike Matheny. Don’t ever bat three strikeout prone batters in a row. Mark Reynolds, Brandon Moss and Peter Bourjos came in with a combined 30% K rate, and the result Thursday night was 5 strikeouts in 9 at bats. No hits. A walk. Bad idea. Don’t do it again. 

4. Where is Tommy Pham? The rookie couldn’t find the starting lineup again. With Bourjos and Jon Jay not hitting and Randal Grichuk incapable of throwing, the time to play Pham is now. He has some pop, can play defense and has speed. 

5.  No ground was lost to Pittsburg. The Pirates can’t beat the Milwaukee Brewers. In the 12th inning, the Brewers got RBI singles from Logan Schafer and Luis Sardinas to sink the Bucs. Kyle Lohse got the save. 

Extra innings analysis-Jaime Garcia is human. The Cards lost another game, continuing a rough week of play but the good thing is tonight is another opportunity to chop the magic number down. The loss was bad but the damage was minimal. The Pirates and Cubs are playing catch up and can’t afford to mess up this month. 

Tonight John Lackey goes for win #12. Tune in afterwards for the five things learned. 

Cardinals: Kings of Endurance 

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It doesn’t matter how great a baseball team is doing. It’s never easy to watch them work for six months and 162+ games. Sweet, bitter or raw play hand in hand with fans. Day games turn into nightmares and night games turn into morning tears. Especially when the summer turns over to the fall. 

Just look at the St. Louis Cardinals, the requisite rogue in red who control the blood pressure and day to day moods of fans the city. They play with our feelings, crushing them on certain nights and enlightening them on others. 

Take Wednesday for example. The Chicago Cubs are in town and looking to sweep. After unloading on the best pitching in baseball two straight nights, they set their sights on the young fiery Carlos Martinez, El Gallo to his dearest fans. Power versus power. With Anthony Rizzo licking his chops and The Small Bears from the North looking to cut the edge to 5.5 games, could Martinez and company stop them?

A locked in Jon Lester didn’t help. A different high paid ace than the one STL faced on opening night. The Birds bent him early for a run scoring hit from Jason Heyward but couldn’t break through for seven innings. Lester doesn’t have overpowering stuff but he’s smart and tactical with his breaking pitches so the bats couldn’t figure him out. However Lester threw 105 pitches and couldn’t go further. That’s the price of the Cards taking good at bats and wearing him down. They didn’t score more than a run but they kept him from finishing. The Cubs bullpen was bound to get involved. 

They are like the friend in the wolf pack who you really don’t need in a brawl. They are unpredictable and erratic. Over the years, facing the Cubs is a matter of getting to their bullpen. Pedro Strop, owner of the glossy fist pump from Tuesday’s game, entered. He failed. Fernando Rodney, Seattle refugee and Big Papi and Dustin Hermanson facial hair wannabe, entered. He checked on Matt Carpenter at first base. Cardinals fans knew, sooner or later, he had to throw a pitch to Stephen Piscotty, a man who could do your kids advanced algebra homework and also collect hits like water bottles at a Salvation Army barbecue. 

Rodney fired and Piscotty didn’t miss it. He lined a shot to right field that eluded the center fielder and hopped off the war back towards the field. It was the 21st extra base hit for the Stanford product in just 167 at bats. If Randal Grichuk was the thrilling roller coaster ride The Boss at Six Flags, Piscotty was the Screaming Eagle, a more old school but still electric experience. The latest in a chorus line of singing Birds for a league best team that tries its best to give off an impersonation of a not so good team for stretches at a time. 

  However, as my dad said yesterday right after Piscotty’s hit about treating the Cubs and their fans to optimism, “We gave you a taste but that’s enough.” He was right. After 25 and a half innings of looking feeble and beatable, the Real Cardinals had to stand up. As a bloody mouthed famous gunslinger once cinematically said, “my hypocrisy only goes so far.” 

Upon reaching second base, Piscotty unleashed a fist bump that nearly caused him to topple over. The usually stoic rookie couldn’t resist anymore. He was “feeling it” as Ricky Bobby once said. Matt Carpenter walked on water as he crossed home plate representing the go ahead fourth run. After being five outs from a sweep, the Cards suddenly led 4-3. They had endured and broke through. Something they’ve done all season. What they’ve done since 2011. Every season. They always find a way. 

Take away three starters from their lineup and a pair of rotation arms. Take away a couple bullpen arms. As fictional Banshee county sheriff Lucas Hood would improbably pronounce after surviving a near death gun battle, the Cards “have it handled”.  Why are fans constantly surprised as September action unfolds with this team’s ability to come back and endure? 

Reinforcements are on the way. Lumbering big stick Matt Adams is almost ready to contribute. Grichuk is unable to throw but still has the tenacity to destroy poorly placed fastballs 451 feet away. Matt Holliday, owner of the angriest swing since Gary Sheffield was in his prime, is close to reading his name on a lineup card. An already strong team will only get stronger. 

Sure, Jon Jay will play too much even though he seems to be swinging a folded up newspaper at the plate. Pete Kozma and Peter Bourjos are glorified gloves but sure can run. Tommy Pham isn’t on the missing persons list yet but simply isn’t trust worthy enough to play center field more than once a week. Jhonny Peralta has been a ghost since the end of July but is bound to break out. 

Trevor Rosenthal has 43 saves and looks like a man possessed. Kevin Siegrist is tired yet efficient. Steve Cishek and Jonathan Broxton haven’t been as bad as fan forums and Twitter make them out to be. Randy Choate will most likely make another appearance without recording an out but that’s simply a cut thread from the LOOGY Blues. 

The Jason Heyward watch won’t quit but don’t lose sleep over it. I am really impressed with the 25 year old player but every smart baseball fan knows one player doesn’t make a team win. It’s a group effort. Whether he stays or he goes(I really hope he stays), the Cards will be fine. Don’t worry about it now. There are men in suits with bow ties who deal with that and they hold the keys to something only we as a fanbase or media outlet can react to. 

Here’s something to remember and it’s simple and probable. The Cards will get beat by teams at times this month but they will also win far more games than they lose. Some losses will be ugly but a great win has the ability to erase three nasty losses. There’s no way to explain it. That’s baseball. 

Throughout it all, I will continue to preach one thing. Endure. Just wait. These regular season games are important but only until the playoffs start. Then, the records are essentially 0-0 and the real hunt begins. The 11 win hunt for the ultimate prize. The World Series trophy. 

Until then, enjoy the action. Bleed with the team but remember anything can happen. As the late great Cardinals pitcher Joaquin Andujar constantly said, “You never know”. 

If it’s one thing you can bet on with the St. Louis  Cardinals in 2015, it’s that they will bounce back from any bad break. They are the Rocky Balboa of baseball. They take the hits and keep on coming. 

Should fans be worried about Carlos Martinez?

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Back in March, there were people who didn’t even believe Carlos Martinez could be an effective 5th starter for the St. Louis Cardinals. Questions came in about his maturity and emotion on the mound. Some questioned his ability to go deep into games. Some just liked Marco Gonzales better. Flash forward a few months and “El Gallo” has blazed a trail through the National League. He hasn’t just looked like a legit starter but a probable ace down the road. However, lately, the soon to be 24 year old righthander has looked a bit more human. Is this rookie starter fatigue, hitters coming around to him, or just some rusty aftershocks of an unbelievable 2/3 portion of the season?

Let’s slow down and remember the kid is only 23 years old. He’s young, fiery and has enough life in his arm for two pitchers in Milwaukee. Downfall is always a suspect in a young man’s rookie season and I am talking rookie season because 2015 is the entry campaign for Martinez’s real job. A starter for the best team in baseball.

The team took precaution and rested him against The Nationals, citing a sore back even though an innings precaution was the likely idea. Coming into Friday’s start against Pittsburgh, Martinez had 154.2 innings, a season high for any stop in the young man’s career. A wall was going to be struck at some point.

After compiling earned run averages of 2.18 and 2.03 in June and July, Martinez’s ERA for August was 4.15. The trend started on July 30th when Martinez was beat up for 5 earned runs and 10 hits against Colorado. After a decent 5 inning effort against the Reds, Martinez threw a gem against Pittsburgh. Eight innings, 3 earned runs and eight strikeouts. Miami then reached him for 4 earned runs before Carlos fired consecutive quality starts against San Diego and Arizona. Friday, the Pirates got to him for four earned runs in five innings. That’s six starts with rough ones included. This followed a stretch where Martinez didn’t allow more than 3 earned runs in 13 consecutive starts. Hitters are reaching him for a .292 average since the All Star break and his ERA is 3.80 during that time.

When it comes to pitch usage differences, Martinez has leaned more on his changeup and slider in the past month over his sinker, which is a world renowned deadly pitch. Friday, his fastball had zip but everything else was flat.

So, is there reason to be worried about Martinez? Is the back an issue? Is rest an issue? Was a rhythm disrupted with the rest or is Martinez just having a rough patch?

I don’t think there’s reason to worry too much about the kid. He’s still 13-7 with a 3.07 ERA to go with a 2.5-1 strikeouts to walks ratio. His WHIP is respectable and he still has an ability to pitch well with runners on base and in scoring position. A “human” stretch may force certain scribes to revisit old themes and fans to question the durability of the young man but I still see a fiery finish to the season.

Martinez carries loads of emotion, willpower and guile to the hill every start. He won’t let it weigh him down. He’ll pop back out on the mound for his start against The Cubs on Wednesday for the homestand finale with something to prove. Here’s something to remember. Martinez has pitched at least five innings in a start since May 9th. Expect him to respond. This is not your normal young pitcher. Martinez is foolishly talented and will be ready, on regular rest, on Wednesday. It’s not time to overthink his durability or stature.

The rest means the Cardinals are thinking of him for a playoff rotation spot and that’s the right move. As easy as it is to once again send Martinez to the bullpen for the third straight time, it’s important to remember the kid’s 2.68 ERA and .228 batting average against on the road. That shouldn’t be forgotten.

Yes, Martinez has looked rougher as of late, but that doesn’t mean September will end with a Martinez fade. He had a rough May as well(4.19 ERA) and he bounced back. Sometimes, the kid just needs to breathe and relax in remembering this is a six month season and it’s a lot different when you only pitch once every five days. 2015 is still a class in session for Martinez. Some bumps were expected but the course is still set.

Carlos Martinez will ride high again…after he is finished building the largest tower of cups in the dugout this weekend.

Max Scherzer was a gamble Cardinals didn’t need to take

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When Washington Nationls and St. Louis native Max Scherzer was testing free agency in the offseason, many in St. Louis were wondering if the hometown Cardinals should put an offer in. Why not? Max is in the prime of his career, has the arsenal of an ace and would be able to put the Birds on the Bat on his chest at last. A alum of The University of Missouri, Columbia, it’d be a homecoming for Mad Max. There was just one thing. He wasn’t needed. I wrote about it then and confirming it now.

Let’s flash forward eight months. The best ERA in baseball belongs to the Cardinals(2.73) and the most quality starts(94) sits in St. Louis as well. This happens without Adam Wainwright for all but four starts and only a half order of lethal lefty Jaime Garcia. It includes an old tough cowboy in John Lackey, a durable innings beast in Lance Lynn, and two white hot phenoms in Michael Wacha and Carlos Martinez. Along the way, Tyler Lyons and Tim Cooney have also helped. Where does Max fit into this equation? Where does his seven year, 210 million dollar contract fit in with the Birds?

Scherzer is making 17 million this year and 22 million from 2016-2018. After that, he is scheduled to make 42 million over the next three years(2019-21) but it is being spread out over the next seven years. The Nationals are going to be paying Scherzer for the next 13 seasons, but he isn’t scheduled to throw a pitch after 2021. Does that sound like something John Mozeliak would do?

The answer is no and the reason he didn’t step into that ring was due to the depth and success the Cardinals have established over the past few seasons. It seems like every year the Cardinals are hit with brutal injuries and just bounce back like warriors in a coliseum. That’s because they aren’t built on one insane contract. Mozeliak traded Shelby Miller and didn’t get close to the Scherzer tree because of guys like Wacha and Martinez. When you are growing perfect tomatoes, why pay outside the farm?

To be fair, Scherzer is having a solid season that needs to be appreciated. His fielding independent ERA is 2.75 and he has 219 strikeouts to just 26 walks. He has thrown three complete games and two shutouts. His record, 11-11, is just another signal of how useless the win total can be with a pitcher. He’s earning that 17 million dollars. I’m just glad he is doing it in a Nationals uniform and not a Cardinals one.

Pitching is not what the Cardinals are in need of. Prime hitting, especially in the future with aging bodies like Matt Holliday reaching the final stage of their career, is their need. The money that fans wanted to see put into an arm like Scherzer will go into a long term contract for Jason Heyward. In the end, Mo knows when it comes to what free agents to bring in and which ones to just smile and look at. A talent that has been growing out at 7th street and Spruce for a while now.

While Max Scherzer coming home to pitch for the Cardinals would have been a nice story and generated some waves across baseball, it simply wasn’t a gamble the Cardinals and Mozeliak needed to take.

Photo by Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports

Why can’t Cardinals fans appreciate Lance Lynn?

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Tonight’s starter for the St. Louis Cardinals is Lance Lynn. You may have heard of him. He pitched for Ole Miss and likes to throw a heavy assortment of fastballs at various speeds. Up, down, and all around. He occasionally throws a curve because he gets bored or while he refills the propane tank for the next inning’s cheddar assault.

The thing about Lynn is that he drives fans crazy with his starts. He throws a lot of pitches early, works long counts, gets a ton of contact and occasionally gets dinged up. Does that warrant the complaining and “Lynning” tweets? Let’s dig in.

Lynn’s fielding independent earned run average is 3.17, which leads the team(if you exclude Jaime Garcia due to a lesser amount of starts). So I ask, is the discomfort with Lynn warranted or does it connect to his unorthodox manner of recording outs? He isn’t easy to watch but gets the job done with his own two hands the most.

Lynn wins. it can’t be denied. Since he picked up a baseball and starting slinging heaters for the Cards on June 2nd, 2011, Lynn has won games. His 58 games since account for a 61% win rate, and he is on pace for less than his usual 15 wins this season due to a lack of run support. Unlike his rotation colleague Michael Wacha, Lynn doesn’t get the steady diet of 5-6 runs. While Wacha got 10 runs in his Sunday victory in San Diego, Lynn got zero in his last start against the Giants on Tuesday. With a few more runs of support, Lynn would have at least 11 wins right now. Instead, tonight he vies for win #10 in Arizona.

Lynn’s strikeouts per nine innings is at its highest peak this season, sitting at 9.6. His strikeouts to walks ratio is 2.92-1, also his best in years. His ERA+ is 132, and 100 ranks as average. That is adjusted to the player’s ballpark to more accurately showed how much damage Lynn takes. He has faced 577 batters in 2015 and struck out 25% of them, which is an impressive stat.

Lynn is durable but doesn’t go deep into games. He’s only missed a couple starts this year, an occurrence that may hold him from reaching 200 innings. He has pitched 7 or more innings only 6 times in 23 starts. At 134.1 innings with roughly 8 starts to go before the end of the season, Lynn would have to dig deeper into games to reach 200. Still a durable man who has escaped major injury.

He’s a beast and doesn’t care or hinge on pitch counts. With all the close observation on Wacha and Carlos Martinez in 2015, Lynn regularly throws 100 pitches in a start. 17 out of his 23 starts, Lynn has thrown 100 pitches. Lynn has thrown 115 or more pitches in a start six times. He’s old school. He lets his emotions fly and has learned to harness his rage and also craft a fine post game media game. While the beast may not be tamed on the field, Lynn has evolved over the five seasons in the Majors as a man and pitcher.

So, why can’t the man get the love from his fans? He doesn’t have the child like adorable phenom combo of Martinez He hasn’t had the playoff sensation of Wacha. He doesn’t have the Lackey experience. Unlike Garcia, Lynn needs to work harder for his outs. Any of these sound justified? Yes and no.

Last week, I was asked about a playoff rotation and my four man set didn’t include Lynn. You know how bad I felt and how incomplete it sounded. The rest of my day was thrown off. I wrestled with the idea. I kept asking myself, how can I leave Lance “The Motorized Fastball” Lynn out of my rotation? It’s either him or Martinez and realistically speaking, Lynn will be in the playoff rotation over Martinez. You never know. There’s five weeks left.

Here’s how much I do know. Don’t underestimate Lance Lynn. Appreciate him. He doesn’t make it look easy every time out but he defines the reason why “wins” are overrated in this game. His WAR(wins above replacement) sits at 2.3, which is above average. He has the ability to get outs without his defense. His salary in from 2014 to 2015 did rise from $535,000 to $7,000,000. There are expectations with Lynn there and it’s okay to judge and be critical of his poor outings. At this point in his career, he most likely won’t change much.

Just remember this. When it comes to Lance Lynn, one can’t forget about the big picture appeal of this Indiana product. It won’t be easy for Mike Matheny to leave him out of the playoff starting rotation hustle.

Analyzing the Brandon Moss trade: Then and Now

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What I said on July 30th when Brandon Moss was acquired…..

First thing. No trade is a bust right off the bat because that term requires numbers to back it up. However, when looking at the Brandon Moss/Rob Kaminsky straight up swap with clear eyes, the forecast doesn’t suggest a fair trade. Or does it? Let’s take a crack.

What did the Cards get in Moss?

The Good-Moss now leads the Cards in home runs(15) and RBI(50). His bat has pop and he can fit into the middle of this lineup and help a team suffering at first base and left field. He also has hit lefties a bit this season, with a .260 average and .453 slugging percentage. Moss is under control next season and isn’t expensive. He can play around the field and has a good glove in left. If Matt Holliday is down, Moss can get time there and give the Cards some boom in their stick…

The Bad-Moss is Mark Reynolds’ twin brother. He has struck out 106 times in 337 at bats this season and is only hitting .217 with an overall OPS of .695. That’s not promising. If Moss recaptures the 2013 form where he hit 30 home runs and drove in 94, then the Cards have something. He’s 31 years old and has declined in past three seasons so there isn’t much initial hope. Moss can’t touch righthanded pitchers for his life, so don’t expect him to be more than a platoon player.

The Rub-With Matt Holliday’s injury, Mozeliak’s hand was forced. I get that. Being a solid GM means you have to roll with the punches. A player like Moss could come over to the Cards(a flip side from the Indians woeful mood) and provide a spark. He’s done it before and in recent memory. While Kaminsky is a higher type prospect, maybe fans are overvaluing this kid from New Jersey who is pitching in High A ball right now. Did Mo get swindled or did he just do what he had to do? Like the Heyward trade in November, Mozeliak’s hands were partially tied here due to the lack of power and injuries. With Matt Carpenter sinking, Holliday and Matt Adams hurt and Reynolds having a rough year, Mo had to make a move.

The Wrap-The initial reaction to this trade is negativity and that’s valid. It’s not Best Fans in Baseball ammo. It’s a basic reaction. We will never know how Kaminsky turns out and it’s fair to give Moss a fair look before determining if the trade was a complete bust.

I can only tell you what I feel right now and that’s let down. The market is insane. If the Cards checked with the Brewers on Adam Lind, the price must have been very high so that could explain the Moss acquisition cost.

Check back in at the end of September. Or after Moss’ first sombrero(4 strikeout game) or two home run game. Moss will be with the team tonight and be able to prove his worth right away. Kaminsky may not be with the Indians until 2016. There’s a small light.

The Brandon Moss show starts right away at Busch Stadium.

And the latest analysis…compiled on September 2nd before game time….

If baseball has taught us anything, it’s to trust the season and don’t give up too early. That can be attached to players as well and St. Louis Cardinals’ outfielder/first baseman Brandon Moss fits the bill perfectly.

Tuesday night was a typical Moss roller coaster. He struck out a couple times, collected a hit, got hit by a pitch and stranded some baserunners early, earning the gripes of fans on the web. If you trust the game, though, sometimes it can surprise you. In the end, Moss redeemed himself by cranking a walk off three run home run in the bottom of the ninth inning. The sweet isn’t as sweet without the bitter, right Mr. Moss.  The big acquisition at the trade deadline received a “meh” reception on July 30th, but is starting to turn it all around.

When Moss was acquired at the end of July for pitching prospect Rob Kaminsky, many Cardinals fans questioned what was running through General Manager John Mozeliak’s mind. After all, Moss was trudging through a painful July that was devoid of power and wasn’t hitting the ball well at all. Moss arrived in St. Louis finishing July with a .160 batting average, .220 on base percentage and leaky .306 slugging percentage. The question was, how could this guy help the team down the stretch?

The first few weeks with the Birds didn’t go well. Moss struck out a lot and couldn’t lift the baseball past the warning track. He couldn’t read a pitch, was overpowered by average heat and was seriously pressing at the plate. He helped the Cards with a walkoff win to finish off his first series with the team against Colorado but that was the summary of his fine contributions in the initial phase. Moss was lost at the plate. He collected singles here and there but had no power and struck out 10 times in a span of seven games. Moss was 7-42 in his first 15 games with the team, with nearly twice as many strikeouts as hits. The next 10 games were better.

Since the road trip started in San Diego, Moss is 9-21 with three home runs and 5 walks to just 6 strikeouts. Like most of his teammates, Moss found his swing in the desert against the Diamondbacks. He contributed a key game winning home run in Arizona, a ball that sailed over the wall, seemingly knocking a huge boulder off Moss’ shoulders. He added another home run in San Francisco, igniting a series win for the Redbirds. Tuesday, he cranks another game winner.

Cast off as an unneeded weakening bat before he even took an at bat for the Cardinals, Moss now looms as a big threat down the stretch. When he’s right, Moss’ can mash with the best lefties in the game. He did show up with 15 home runs and 50 RBI, and now has put a charge into his stats with the recent surge. Sometimes, fans have to see the forest through the trees with players coming over from losing teams. After a dusting off the rust in his bat and finally getting his legs back after offseason surgery, Moss looks like the guy Mozeliak dialed up Cleveland for.

Does all of this make him a contender for a postseason roster spot? Sure it does. The setback in Matt Adams’ return to the team helps his cause, as does the slow returns of Matt Holliday and Randal Grichuk from their injuries. Jon Jay is returning, but Moss’ ability to hit the long ball gives the Cards something they sorely need down the stretch. A one swing game changer. Like Peter Bourjos and Tommy Pham, Moss is going to have to slug his way onto the postseason roster with a thrilling September. There are no easy rides for these guys on a team this stacked.

Can Moss do it? Time will tell but his bat will paint the picture. He will start, in either left field or at first base until Holliday, Adams and Grichuk return. These next couple of weeks could be huge. These next 7 games against Washington, Pittsburgh and Chicago are big for Moss. Swing the big stick in a time of need and it will be impossible for Mike Matheny to keep you out of the lineup. Moss is also playing for a spot on next year’s team, a role that isn’t so easily defined with the crowded roster inhabitants.

I’ve had my reservations and doubts about Moss and his ability to contribute since his first day in red, but he’s starting to change my mind. Two weeks ago he was forgotten about, gathering dust on a weak bench. In the past week, he has changed a game with one swing twice. Welcome to a true pennant race, Mr. Moss. Do you have what it takes to succeed in the red sea? Just another exciting element of this final stretch.

In order to properly analyze a trade, some at bats need to happen and time is required. My then and now look at Brandon Moss.