Friday night revealed a Cardinals-Dodgers series flavor.  Think of throwing two different steaks on a grill and seeing which one can stand the burning charcoal beneath longer.  Certain things were revealed and confirmed last night.   Great pitching, timely hitting, brilliant bullpen work and an ability to take advantage of mistakes.

Let’s go back and do a little pre series hype and set up.  the Cards are matched up with an even strength team that is full of talent, carries no give and will produce one of the most thrilling series in a long time.  After the Pirates, there is no drop off in opposition for the Cards, gunning for their 4th World Series trip in the last 10 years.  The Dodgers are built by expensive parts and assembled to win a title.  They aren’t put together by home grown talent.  For the crowd preaching that LA bought themselves a pennant chase, that theory carries weight but won’t matter much if they walk away from this series with a World Series ticket.  We can cry all night about a loss there, but all you have at the end of the day is what you gave inside the series and not why you lost it.   Big budget team or not, the Dodgers are deadly up and down the order.  The Cardinals are a team that has slowly raised their payroll to 116 million(100 million below LA’s numbers) but combines home grown talent with acquired skill.   This makes for a matchup between two of baseball’s most storied franchises.   With the two best jerseys in the NL and 18 World Series titles between them, the Cards and Dodgers will create a classy clash of titans.

Now let’s look at Game 1.  The Cards won 3-2 in 13 innings and a tone was set in the process.   A few things that I take away.  Carlos Beltran was the MAN last night and he will get his space later but first let’s look at a few things.

*Clayton Kershaw can be the Cy Young award winner and MLB’s golden child, but he is also a man that suffered two defeats to the Cards this season.   Run support or not, the brilliant lefthander was beaten twice by our club.   The bigger threat to us appeared last night and that is Zach Greinke, the righthanded arm brought in to take the Dodgers rotation from pretty good to excellent.  He kept the Cards off balance for 8 innings and his only blemish was a 3 pitch sequence of hitters that included a Joe Kelly hit, Matt Carpenter walk and Carlos Beltran 2 run double.  Greinke will pitch again in LA in this series and more than likely in Game 5 on Wednesday against Kelly.  He is a man I feared more than Kershaw coming into this series.

*Hats off to Joe Kelly, who pitched a gritty 6 innings and allowed 2 runs.   Kelly got into plenty of trouble but had some gas left in the tank when he left the game and did his usual stressful pitching.  I don’t think he clicks in fully until there are men on the basepaths and like Allen Craig, he is at his best in the biggest situation.   If he fields a ground ball hit by Yasiel Puig cleanly, there is a chance that he could have a shutout heading into the 7th inning.    Kelly got the game 1 assignment and did very well.  Limited the damage and shined in the right moments.

*Jon Jay looked horrible at the plate and in the field.   He left runners on base and took a bad route to a ball hit in the 11th inning that almost gave the Dodgers a go ahead run.  There are days where I think Jay is a fine centerfielder and a great bargain player and then there are days where I think he doesn’t need to play every day.

*Nobody swings harder than Juan Uribe.  I bet he is the guy who jams debit cards into ATM machines, rips apart wrapping paper and violently punches in his pin number at area stores.  He is a deadly bat that has a truly violent swing and is a big time playoff performer.  He is a guy I fear as much as the other big bats in the lineup.

*The Cards bullpen slamming the door on the Dodgers and showing their strength in numbers.  For 7 innings, few hits were allowed and peace was kept.  Trevor Rosenthal pitched two solid innings as well as unwanted man Lance Lynn, who earned the victory with a scoreless yet far from perfect 12th and 13th innings.

*Yasiel Puig is a fine young talent but he can be solved with good pitching.   All night Cardinal pitcher busted him inside and didn’t let him get his arms extended and do any real damage.  A deadly bat that blew up in August yet cooled down slightly in September, Puig is a diamond talent but a player still building his baseball IQ.   He can get careless and swing wild and be fooled by a decent breaking pitch.   While I heavily anticipate his matchup with fireballer Rosenthal, I want to see Adam Wainwright carve Puig up.

*Adrian Gonzalez being pulled in the 8th inning wad a dicey call from Don Mattingly.  Dee Gordon can fly for sure but taking out a lethal bat in a one run game with a good chance for extras hurt the Dodgers.  Mike Matheny easily raised the right hand and passed the dangerous Hanley Rameriz twice afterwards and this decision played a role.   Gonzo’s sweeter than velvet swing is a big threat to a baseball club built on young pitching talent who pound a lot of fastballs into the zone.   Gordon was forced at second on a Puig ground ball and LA was weakened going forward.  This was huge.

*The throw from Beltran to Yadi Molina at home plate did nail Mark Ellis and there was a small tag applied.   He was out and when Ellis ran into Molina, his elbow brushed off Yadi’s glove.  Either way, there wasn’t enough conclusive evidence to reverse the call(for you 2014 replay honks) and The ump decided contact and the ball beating the runner was enough to punch out the runner.  That was huge and Beltran calling off Jon Jay was another reason why the savvy veteran is so important to the Cards.

Finally, let’s talk about Carlos Beltran.   He was a one man wrecking crew last night.   He drove in two runners off Greinke in the 3rd inning, threw out the runner at home plate in extras and slapped a game winning base hit in the 13th off Dodgers closer Kenley Jensen to seal the victory.   He has 34 RBI in his career in the postseason(ranks 5th all time) and more HR in the playoffs than Babe Ruth.  He is a smooth moving ageless wonder who is proving to be vital this postseason.  He is perfect for the #2 hole and shines there.  I expect his bat to be beastly the rest of the month.   Let’s table his offseason contract situation for now and simply enjoy his performance.

Game 2 is today with Michael Wacha facing off against Kershaw at 3pm St. Louis time.   I expect the young righty to keep the Dodgers off balance with his accurate heater and changeup.  This will be another close game where a big blast could decide the game.   If the Cards can manage to steal the first two games before heading to LA, it’s as tough as reinforced steel.  Getting a game one pitching duel is good enough.   The series will happen quick.   By the end of next Saturday, a Game 7 will conclude.   Will it need 7 games?  I prescribed it that much as the first game kicked off last night and can still see it going that way.   For now, enjoy the hours off before the nerves kick in this afternoon.   For die hard fans, these are the days we spend all season sweating to witness.   We are seasoned for this moment and ready to analyze.

Who takes Game 2?  No idea.  The Cards proved in Game 1 they can make up for a lack of payroll with a handsomely groomed farm system full of MLB ready talent.  Who wins the series?  A family or a group of mercenaries?

Thanks for staying,

Dan L. Buffa

On Friday at Busch Stadium, Pittsburgh Pirates starter Gerrit Cole took the Cardinals to school for 6 innings.   Throwing 5 different pitches for strikes and having the ability to dial his fastball up to 99 mph, Cole kept our hitters off balance and could blow the heater past their bats.  The mid season addition to the Pirates staff and 1st round draft pick was pitching against the Cards for the first time and surely made an entrance.  Coupled with the collapse of the defense and Lance Lynn’s pitching ability, Cole flipped the momentum in the series over to the Pirates for the next two games.  After the Birds erupted for 9 runs in the first game, Cole shut them down and only allowed a solo home run to Yadi Molina.  That’s the narrative.  Here’s the question at the end of it.  Can the Cards adapt to Cole’s pitching or will they fall victim a second time?   Game 5 hangs on that question.

We all know Adam Wainwright will bring his A game and keep the game close for our lineup.   Waino is a veteran big game pitcher who can be hit early on but showed in September and last Thursday that the Pirates lineup doesn’t scare him that much.  However, if the bats can’t crack Cole, the evening could stretch into an uncomfortable affair.  The Pirates bullpen is just as willing as our young pen and their bats won’t make this game an easy out for the home team.  As much as Busch Stadium plays a part in the game, this game is decided by a ball and a bat and which jersey is more swift with those tools.   Waino will make it our game to lose but can we crack the safe of young gun Gerrit Cole?

Watching film will help but certain players need to step up and do what they do best.   The Cards hitters know how the man wants to attack them and have to be ready for that high octane fastball or his just as nasty changeup and slider.  The only difference in the lineup is Pete Kozma’s suddenly hot bat subbing in for Daniel Descalso at shortstop and in the 8 hole.

If I had to pick one man who could determine a breakout of this lineup tonight, it’s Matt Carpenter.  Since collecting his 199th hit against the Cubs on September 27th, the mesmerizing leadoff man has 1 hit since then and looks lost, adrift and out of rhythm at the plate.   This happened for a stretch in July as well.   Carpenter’s bat went cold and the offense went down right with his stick.   Where Carpenter goes, the rest of the lineup follows.  Simple leadoff man navigation.   I don’t care what he did during the regular season.   Doubles, hits, runs scored and all.   His only hit in this series is a scratch hit through the right side of the infield.   Carpenter is pulling his head out early at the plate and rolling over for weak grounders to second base or striking out on breaking pitches.   He isn’t working counts and not drawing walks.   It’s a bad time for the catalyst of your lineup to find a cold streak.   When he scores a run, the Cards are a great team.  When he doesn’t, the team is beatable.  Pitching does decide the fate of most games, but hitting is what wins you games.   At the core of this game, simplicity lurks.

Another person to remember is Molina.  He cranked a HR off Cole and was the only guy who took good swings against him in his at bats.   Expect him to be dangerous tonight.

For some reason, I expect one of the pitchers to get lit up tonight.   When a pitching duel is in the forecast, a romp is usually what arrives at the table.   Will the Pirates finally figure out Waino or will the Cards break through against Cole?  These are some of the great questions going into a winner take all game.   Which pitch decides the fate of a team’s entire season?   Which bullpen comes up big?   Each team has a deadly shutdown crew that has shown an ability to allow runs in this series?   Jason Grilli and Trevor Rosenthal have been great but Mark Melancon and Kevin Siegrist have been hit for key runs.

The hardest thing about tonight’s game is the evenness of the teams involved.   Each lineup has exploded in a game to win and used small ball to win a game.  Each pitcher has dominated the other lineup once in this series.  The hitters have shined and crashed to the ground.  Predicting sports is a field I have yet to break into and don’t really want to in the near future.   Let me just say this.  The lineup that executes tonight will be the team that moves on to the next round.   The pitchers carry the top billing in this game and the lineups have their work cut out for them.

Pitchers duel or offensive rampage?  After Michael Wacha’s dazzling postseason debut on Monday allowed the Cards to reach Game 5, they seem to have the momentum but Gerrit Cole stopped that party once in this series.   Can he do it again or will the Cards break his serve?

I love this game and I can’t wait for tonight.  The blood pressure will rise, the hands will tremble and the words in our head will gather up quick.  May the players feet be swift, their bats plentiful and their nerves clean and ready to roll.   Game 5 at Busch Stadium will leave no prisoners.

What team welcomes The Los Angeles Dodgers on Friday and what team packs their bags for the winter?   You never can tell.

Thanks for staying,

Dan Buffa

Part of me wants to adopt Mike Matheny’s one game at a time mindset, but another part wants to think ahead and plan accordingly.  Today, the St. Louis Cardinals begin their launch for title #12 in 2013.  The battle starts with the Pittsburgh Pirates today at Busch Stadium in downtown St. Louis.   The Red Sea will be dominating 7th and Clark and turn the stadium into a bowl of red flavored passion.   There is nothing like playoff baseball in St. Louis.  As a Cards fan, we have come to expect it yearly.   October isn’t the time to start thinking about next year’s club, wonder who will play the outfield or watch baseball players develop sad faces.  In this town, we plan on contending for the championship every year and that is a proud feeling.   Against the home team lies a team who hasn’t tasted playoff atmosphere in 21 years, or when I was 10 years old.  The Pirates are hungry and arrogantly spanked the Reds in a wildcard game on Tuesday.   They won’t go quietly into the night and neither will our Cardinals.  I expect this series to go 5 games but this is the postseason and you simply never can tell.   Let’s run down my list of thoughts on the series.

*Adam Wainwright taking on A.J. Burnett in game 1 is ideal for the Cards.  Waino has been aces at home this month and Burnett got rocked for 8.10 ERA in this park during 2013.  A.J. likes to throw that first pitch fastball and it’s the Cards mission to jump all over it before he can work in his deadly slider.   Get to him early and do it brutally.   Waino’s main problem is the first inning at home and if he gets out of that unscathed, good things will come.  He only gets better as the game goes along, so its important to stake Big 50 to an early lead.

*The bullpen advantage slides into the Cards direction.   Mark Melancon was getting torched in the last couple weeks of the season as the Pirates closer and Jason Grilli has only been back for a couple weeks.  Their bullpen is strong but the Cards pen has been the backbone of this team’s 2013 surge.   When the rotation got weary, the bullpen saved the team.   When the bats went quiet, the last two men out of the pen closed the door.   You can’t find a better threesome in a bullpen than Seth Maness, Kevin Siegrist and Trevor Rosenthal.  Each bullpen is made up of young power arms but the Cards have the advantage.

*The Pirates have a stacked lineup, with Marlon Byrd and Justin Morneau added in the final month.   They also have Starlin Marte back in the leadoff spot, something the Cards didn’t have to face in September.  Marte is a table setter, Andrew McCutchen is a finisher and there the Cards pests in Pedro Alvarez and Neil Walker.   Right when you think it’s okay to breathe, you have seasoned catcher Russell Martin, who cranked two HR on Tuesday and has torched the Cards all year.  While their pitching was their strength for the majority of the season, the Bucs bats improved mightily in the last two months and outhomered the Cards 18-5 in their season series.  These guys can bring it and hit it deep.  A test for the Cards.

*Game 3 in Pittsburgh looms as the biggest matchup of the series to me because you have the Cards road warrior and PNC specialist Joe Kelly taking on a lefthander  in Francisco Liriano who has shredded our lineup 3 times this season.   The Cards have to manage to win at least of the opening 2 games at Busch if not both because when they deal with Liriano their backs better not be against the wall.  The best defense against the lefty is throwing our best road guy on the hill and Kelly was 5-1 with a 2.09 ERA on the road this season, and won two games in Pittsburgh.  Each of those wins came as stoppers, where Kelly halted a losing streak or avoided a sweep.  Game 2 between Lance Lynn and Gerrit Cole is big but the game of the series rests in Game 3.

*Sure, the Cards don’t play well in PNC Park, struggled against the Pirates in the second half and their park will be rocking but this is October baseball ladies and gents and the stage experience belongs to our Cards.   The Reds were a better matchup because they weren’t good enough to make the playoffs and the Pirates exposed that nerve on Tuesday.  You don’t whine about who is standing in front of you.  You simply take them down.   Every time I hear, “Oh no, PNC” I remind those people the playoffs are a stage where our young players and key veterans don’t wilt.  We rise to the occasion like Spartans.

*The weakest link on the Cards side is their bench.   With Allen Craig out and Matt Adams playing every day, there is no big bang off the bench for our team.  I had hoped Brock Petersen would show some power in his September callup but he barely hit the ball out of the infield.   This is an area where John Mozelaik could have improved at the trade deadline but decided not to thinking neither of his core guys would get hurt.   Craig went down and the bench was truly exposed.  The only thing you can do is use your speedy defensive minded second baseman, Kolten Wong, in the starting lineup and put Matt Carpenter at third.   When the game reaches the 7th inning, you can pinch hit struggling yet historically clutch David Freese for Wong.  Then, you have a guy who can come through in the late innings.  If not, your lethal bat is Shane Robinson.   You can have your best defensive 2B in Wong, who also gives you speed, in for the first 6-7 innings and then insert Freese when you need that big hit late in the game.  It’s not conventional but with this bench you have to go outside the box.  Freese’s late inning heroics are late game knocks and this will give you a chance to best utilize him.

*I don’t like Edward Mujica on the postseason roster but I understand it.   Mujica is a guy with a dead arm right now.  His splitter is flat and has been hammered and his straight heat isn’t doing much to fool hitters.   He is a big part of our 2013 surge, but at this point in the chase, YOU HAVE TO GO WITH THE PLAYERS WHO GIVE YOU THE BEST CHANCE TO WIN.  To me, Mujica isn’t as valuable right now as Sam Freeman or Tyler Lyons.  However, Matheny didn’t want to piss off his clubhouse by leaving a guy who had 37 saves on the bus, so there is that.   Let’s hope Chief has a little magic in store for the Red October.

*Mike Matheny and Clint Hurdle will have some interesting duels in this series.   A young manager who hands the reins of important games over to rookies against a man who also utilizes rookies but doesn’t shy away from experience either.   In my mind, two skippers who deserve Manager of the Year consideration.

*The biggest question is who starts Game 4 for the Cards?  In my opinion it should be Michael Wacha.   While Shelby Miller was great in September and pitched in last year’s playoffs, I firmly believe the matchup with the Pirates favors the kid in Wacha more.  He pitched 9 innings in a start and some relief work against the Pirates in September and the Bucs lineup had big problems with his changeup.   A lot of teams are going to find that over the top sledgehammer delivery of Wacha’s to be hard to contend with.   This is a tough spot for Matheny but you have to look at the numbers.  Miller was 0-4 against the Pirates in 2013.   Wacha was stellar against them, granted in a lot less innings.  Barring his bumpy start in Colorado, Wacha is a decent road pitcher and could be the equalizer in a pivotal Game 4 at PNC Park.  I saw the logic in starting Lance Lynn at home in Game 2 and would have approved of Miller there as well but you have to be smart when it comes to Game 4 in PNC.  Miller struggled there in 2013 and Wacha is an arm that the Pirates don’t know too well and couldn’t do much with when they did stand in against him.  That is being kept in secret probably due to Matheny and pitching coach Derek Lilliquist wanting to see how the first three games play out.  To me, my starter is picked out.  Start The Wacha.

The Cards are playing the bad guys in this series, trying to take down the league’s nation wide lovefest in the Pittsburgh Pirates.   Personally, anything that stops the saying “Bucktober” from gaining traction is good by me.   It’s the Rogues in Red’s job to sink the Pirates ship and if we can score this Game 1 win today, that is a big push towards securing a spot in the NLCS and possibly moving forward to the World Series.   However, I am desperately trying to stay in Matheny mode here and take it one game at a time.

Once again, ladies and gents, GO CARDS!  It’s time to chase history!

Thanks for staying,

Dan Buffa