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A little fire from a player and honesty from a writer isn’t a bad thing
Tonight, the Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates take aim at each other for the final undecided playoff spot in the 2015 postseason. The NL wildcard spot. While they duel, the St. Louis Cardinals await the victor at Busch Stadium for Game 1 Friday night. As we wait for the skies to go dark and the final order of regular season business to be resolved, I ask you this question Cardinal Nation. Who are you rooting for? Who do you want the Cards to face in the NLDS? Let me tell you who I want.
I’ll take the Cubs and for a few reasons.
*Big bats have little experience in the postseason. The majority of this Cubs offensive attack is green when it comes to playoff experience and that means something. It’s a different beast in the postseason. The crowds are louder. Every at bat means something. The stakes are as high as ever. The opportunity to acquire something special looms over the regulars. You can tell me how good Jake Arrieta has been in the second half or how polished Anthony Rizzo has become at the plate, but they haven’t tasted the playoffs yet. They don’t know what it’s like. The only thing Rizzo knows about the playoffs is making ill-advised predictions. Jason Hammel has three starts in the playoffs. Dan Haren hasn’t pitched in October since 2009. Jon Lester has the most experience. A lot of these Cubs are new faces in the postseason.
*The Cubs rotation is weaker than the Pirates, not by much but enough. After Arrieta, Jon Lester is the likely candidate to start the NLDS. At most, Arrieta will pitch one game in this series. While they only hit .216 off Lester, the Cards beat him three times in 2015 and hit three home runs. He isn’t invincible, and neither is Hammel or Haren. If the Cards get Kyle Hendricks, they beat him in their one start. The Pirates have Francisco Liriano and J.A. Happ, two Cardinal killers, waiting for the Birds. The Cubs starters, while posting the third lowest ERA behind the Cards and Pirates, aren’t as formidable in a short series.
*The Cubs bullpen is weaker than the Pirates. Pittsburgh’s bullpen ERA of 2.67 led the Majors in 2015. The Cards had the 3rd best bullpen ERA. The Cubs have the 8th best, which is solid but not as scary as the Pirates. In the playoffs, the bullpen efforts are magnified. There are tons of small leads and the Cubs bullpen is more likely to break. If I have to chose between Tony Watson and Pedro Strop, I’ll take Strop. If I have to choose between Jorge Soria or Fernando Rodney, I’ll take Rodney. If I have to choose between Mark Melancon and Hector Rondon, I’ll take the latter. And so on so on. The Cubs’ late inning crew isn’t as formidable and has less playoff experience to boot.
*The Pirates are a better overall hitting team. They ranked 11th in runs scored(697), 9th in batting average(.260), 9th in on base percentage(.323) and slugged two points less than the Cubs as a team. While the Cubs can hit the long ball, the Pirates are more balanced and can break through against many pitching staffs. They have speed in Starlin Marte, Gregory Polanco and Josh Harrison and home run bats in Pedro Alvarez and Andrew McCutchen. The Pirates played the Cards better overall in 2015.
Both teams have very good managers in Joe Maddon and Clint Hurdle. Each field is an extremely loud and difficult place to play baseball games in.
I understand losing to the Cubs would be a very bad ending to the 2015 campaign. Depressing in fact. There’s something sinister in that potential result should the two teams meet in the Division Series. The Cubs were supposed to be playoff ready in 2016 or 2017 but instead used a very good second half and an unreal Arrieta to earn a Wildcard play in spot. The gap is closing and with a playoff victory over the Cards, the rivalry would be as fresh as ever. A loss to the Pirates would be unfortunate but more of a year to year build from Hurdle’s bunch after seasons of falling short. Let’s be honest. The Cards don’t need to lose to either of these teams, so in the end it’s a matter of which poison you want. All three teams had amazing seasons. Both batches are potent. Which one stings the most?
In the end, the Pirates pack a better all around punch. Sure, they don’t have their breakout talent in Jung Ho Kang anymore or have a 100% lethal A.J. Burnett, but still have a great rotation and lineup that hits Cardinal pitching well and played a lot of close games this season. More than five games between the Cards and Bucs ended in a walkoff this season. A playoff series would be very similar and for my money, their bullpen is what separates these two clubs. Plus, the Cubs are more free swingers, strikeout prone and can be locked down.
If I had to choose which team I’d like the Cards to face in the NLDS in 2015, I’d take the Chicago Cubs. You can’t tell me that series wouldn’t be thrilling. As my dad said after a Cards comeback victory over the Cubs this season. “We gave them a taste. Now that’s enough.” If the Cubs make it out of Pittsburgh with a victory, it will be appropriate for the sheriff in town to quickly shut them up.
That’s my take. What’s yours? Tell me in the comments section and thanks for reading. You can also find this article on KSDK Sports page.
The news is in. Carlos Martinez, the hot young phenom starter for the St. Louis Cardinals, is done for the season. The shoulder tightness that pulled him from Friday’s start has also cut his season short. When the 24 year old phenom left the field in tears, something bad was in the forecast. Something only an athlete knows right away. Your body flashing a check your engine light.
I don’t need General Manager John Mozeliak to use crayons and draw it out for me. Martinez is done not only for the regular season but postseason too. With ten days left in the season, the chances of Carlos coming back in early October are slim to fuggedaboutit!
As we digest this unfortunate news, I’ll provide a few reactions.
*Adam Wainwright will not start now. He isn’t conditioned to start after not throwing to hitters until this afternoon. It’s just not possible. That opportunity is gone. Waino at best will be a reliever.
*The doubt is eliminated from Lance Lynn’s playoff rotation future. It was looking cloudy for the up and down starter. Same for Michael Wacha. Each starter had been rocked hard. The page is turned with Martinez’s injury. Both these have been there before, good and bad. They are ready. I think Lance Lynn starts game 4 on the road.
*Tyler Lyons will get another start and it could fall on the final day of the Pittsburgh series. A potential big day for the journeyman arm to solidify his playoff chances. They could let Waino grab a couple innings that day but I doubt it. It will most likely be Lyons and Carlos Villanueva.
*If this is the end of the line for Martinez, what an entry into the land of major league starters. A bright future lies ahead for this man and that’s part of the reason you shut him down today and cut short his 2015 contributions. He’s young, raw and has never approached this amount of innings. The innings load may have simply worn down his right arm and shoulder. The hope is nothing lingers. No surgery is needed so Carlos can just come into spring and go right at it. He threw 179.2 innings, compiled a 14-7 record and struck out 184 batters to 63 walks in 29 starts. He finished with a flurry in September before the injury.
*The Cards can handle this folks. The 2015 team are built for rough cracked roads and uncharted waters. They have won 97 games without starters all over the field. This setback won’t slow them down. Martinez’s fire will be missed but he will still be around, building cups and smiling. The team will be hindered yet trudge on. They’ve been doing it all year.
Feel sad about the loss of one of the most exciting pitchers in the game but also know the Redbirds have this covered. If this injury manages to cripple them, this display of resilience will be all for nothing. There are 8 games left in the regular season. Then, it’s the fight to 11 wins and a 12th championship. While he won’t see the end, Carlos Martinez helped team get there by blowing everybody’s expectations out of the water. From a maybe 5 inning guy to arguably the ace of this staff. What a season. It’s been cut short but that doesn’t mean the sweetness of his season loses any of its flavor. The future of Carlos Martinez is too valuable to risk for one postseason.
As they say, play ball. That’s all you can do in this game.
Stephen Piscotty is all business. He doesn’t talk much. The St. Louis Cardinal rookie outfielder doesn’t get too emotional, loud or particularly down on the baseball field. After all, this kid has discipline in spades. During this past offseason, he went back to Stanford and completed his degree in Engineering. Baseball just comes easy, and while the pressure is as prevalent as it is for any 24 year old, Piscotty doesn’t let it show on the field.
While General Manager John Mozeliak’s deadline acquisition of Brandon Moss brought out the critics(including myself), Piscotty has been the real key acquisition in 2015. Where would the offense be without this kid? Since he showed up on July 21st, Piscotty has collected 71 hits in 227 at bats(.313) and put together an OPS(on base+slugging percentage) of .872. After a white hot start, Piscotty slumped a bit but he has endured at the plate while providing steady defense all over the field.
First, he’s a smart hitter. He takes a good at bat and has an easy going fluid swing at the plate. He doesn’t get cheated but he also doesn’t swing at everything. For a team with three strikeout kings(Mark Reynolds, Randal Grichuk, Moss), Piscotty is a breath of fresh air. His bat is the logical professor to the other windmill type sticks. He only has 54 strikeouts(23 %) in 2015.
Second, Piscotty can hit anywhere in this lineup. He can hit #2 and be a good jumpstarter for offense or he can supply power(as seen by his 7 home runs and 26 total extra base hits). He can also be a middle of the order bat due to his ability to not only drive in runs, but do what is necessary to get an important run home. In a game against Atlanta last weekend, Piscotty didn’t over swing or try to do too much. He simply lifted a ball deep enough to right field to score the winning run. He doesn’t swing at the first pitch and will make a pitcher earn his stripes.
Third, Piscotty is flexible in the field. He can play left field, right field and also take reps at first base if Reynolds and Moss start to whiff like golf balls are being thrown at them. He played the infield in college and played at first the week before he was called up, so Piscotty isn’t secluded to the outfield. Part of the reason he found himself in St. Louis was his ability to move around. He’s stayed in the lineup because of his steady bat. Unlike Xavier Scruggs, Piscotty’s bat doesn’t seem to be slowing down or powering up. It’s just getting smarter with each trip.
Fourth, the Cards need him right now. Moss has pop, but his bat can go silent at times. Part of the reason Mo didn’t have to go big at the deadline was the promise of Piscotty and wanting him to play every day. A bigger bat comes in here(especially a rental) and the kid may sit more than the team wants him to. With Matt Holliday and Jon Jay out for a significant period of time and other Memphis outfield options pursued or tapped out, Piscotty is the last known quality prospect that was ready to roll up I-55. He will get his shot.
Piscotty is the perfect foil for Grichuk’s power. Here you have a pair of young gun renegades who are getting full time slots to help a championship caliber team bulldoze through the tireless months of the season. Another farm system assisted tool on display. The latest example of The Cardinals working in house to solve major leaks and issues. If people want a #1 reason for Mo not seeking a bigger bat at the deadline, remember guys like Piscotty and Grichuk. They aren’t doing that bad filling in the holes in offense.
As quiet as he is and choice with his words, Piscotty’s bat has done more than enough talking thus far.
Tommy Pham has been freed. He’s in the lineup everyday as if it was as automatic as hitting the brew button on your morning coffee machine. The 27 year old “rookie” is swinging a hot bat and by hot I mean white crispy burning special.
On the Cardinals last road trip, he managed to crank three home runs in three straight at bats, something that hadn’t been done by a Cards rookie in quite some time. Ask Tim Trokey for the details. I’ll just tell you what the juicy part of this steak looks like. Each home run was a 2 run game changing blast. Each one was a no doubter. These aren’t Yankees Stadium cheap shot right field corner goners. These are Keanu Reeves’ like waves of baseball euphoria.
Pham hit a two run home run in Milwaukee that was so stunning that Fox Sports Midwest play by play guy Dan McClaughlin could only manage 3-4 “wow’s” in his reaction.
Pham has been a curious case this summer for the Redbirds. He started the year brilliantly in spring training, hitting everything but the beach down in Florida. Then he injured his quadriceps and went missing for months. He returned to Memphis in June and started hitting everything but a blues guitar down there in Tennessee. I didn’t heart any tornado warnings down here in Arkansas but it was apparent Pham was tired of being the “what if” guy who couldn’t stay healthy.
When the Cards were in a rough patch in early July, Pham was called up to face the San Diego Padres at Busch Stadium, right around the Fourth of July. Pham created some fireworks that weekend. On Saturday, he collected a double, stole third base and scored the game winning run on a sac fly. On Sunday, Pham smashed a two run home run and an RBI double to provide all three runs for the Cards. In a weekend series win, Pham played a part in every single run the Cardinals scored. That’s a game changing player.
Pham cooled off in the next 10 games, going 5-33 and striking out a bit against the Cubs, Pirates and Mets. After being sent back down to Memphis, where baseballs were surely not happy to see him back in town, Pham was called back up on August 17th. After a quiet 1-9 in San Francisco, Pham went off in San Diego and Arizona, going 11-26 with a double and two triples. When Pham is on, he shoots the ball all over the field. After collecting hits in the next couple games, Pham would only start twice in the next week. With the return of Jon Jay, Pham’s time was unfortunately limited.
After a game in Milwaukee, speaking to FSM reporter Pat Parris, Pham said he had many dreams growing up and this was only one of them. The man isn’t a young spring legged outfielder anymore, but he sure is playing like one. Pham will be 28 years old in March, isn’t arbitration eligible until 2018 and can’t be a free agent until 2021. This is only the beginning.
In his last 15 games, Pham is hitting .342 with an OBP of .366 and a .868 slug(.500 is pretty damn good). He’s 13-38 in that span with 4 home runs and 12 RBI. In the month of September, 9 of Pham’s 15 hits have gone for extra bases. Over the last three wins, the rookie has played a part in every game deciding play. He drove in the tying and go ahead run in last night’s 3-1 win. He’s white hot right now and can’t be moved.
So here is the Pham plan. He plays. No matter what. Pham can take over a game with his versatile set of skills and that comes in the field and at the plate. Randal Grichuk and Matt Holliday need to be 100% before they bump Pham off the starting lineup. Jay hasn’t hit all year, and is only 8 for his last 41 at the plate. Jay is not as good as Pham defensively and his bat isn’t even close. Pham has now risen above Peter Bourjos and Jay on the need to play now depth chart, and Mike Matheny has to understand that.
This is no time to get guys like Jay going. This is a time to play the hot bats. With 17 games left and the Pirate and Cubs refusing to go away, guys like Pham are needed in an offense that can go stagnant. When the time comes, Grichuk and Holliday will get their at bats and that’s fair. As long as it doesn’t diminish the Pham effect, the Cards will keep riding high. He hasn’t just played himself onto the 2016 team. Pham has played himself into consideration for the postseason roster. If you are in doubt, go back and watch the San Diego series at Busch, or the games in San Diego, Arizona, Cincinnati or Milwaukee. He’s a force to reckon with. You don’t sit that down on the bench.
The Tommy Pham Plan is simple. Play him until he, not rehabbing players, gives you a reason not to.
Outlaw cowboy William Munny walks into a bar carrying a double barrel shotgun and asks someone, “Who owns this joint?” That’s John Lackey in 2015. He walks into any baseball park, asks where the mound is and delivers a gem. It doesn’t matter who the opponent is or what the stakes are. The Abilene, Texas native is having his best season in 8 years.
On Thursday in Milwaukee, John Lackey dominated. He pitched seven innings, needed less than 90 pitches and restricted the Brewers from starting anything. He struck out 8 and allowed only 5 hits, lowering his earned run average to 2.79. Unlike other rotation colleagues, Lackey has been a steady beast the entire season.
When the Cards acquired Lackey stout at 2014’s trade deadline, some fans weren’t happy because the team lost some good “team guys” in Joe Kelly and Allen Craig. The deal was mint to me. Lackey was a proven veteran, someone who had been to war and back. A guy who helped shut the doors on the Cards 2013 season in Game 6 of the World Series. It also helped that Lackey would only cost the team a measly 500K in 2015.
Lackey was solid in Red the rest of 2014 and in the playoffs, but he’s been unreal in 2015. With Adam Wainwright sidelined, Lackey picked up the sheriff’s badge, blew it off and patched it onto his chest. With a few grunts, he’s supplied the team with that rare edge. Lackey pitches angry, carries his emotions on his sleeve, chest and forehead, and treats other teams like impostor’s on his will.
Lackey touched 200 innings, 150 strikeouts and left Milwaukee with a WAR(wins above replacement via baseball reference) of 5.1. That represents his highest WAR since the 2007 season. He has a 3-1 strikeouts to walks ratio and has scattered 18 home runs over those 200 frames. His fielding independent ERA isn’t too swanky at 3.57 but his ERA+ of 141 is quite nice. All in all, Lackey has been money and unlike Mike in Swingers, he knows it.
Lackey has even shed the home/road splits that followed him into this season. After a rough outing in Colorado(easily his worst as a Cardinal) on June 8th, Lackey has been great in road grays in 8 of his last 9 starts(the one mishap coming in San Diego where the Cards played regrettable defense behind him).
People make a big deal about quality starts, but Lackey takes it to another level. He provides the “high” quality starts. He’s pitched at least seven innings and allowed three runs or less in 19 different games.
Does all this cream and sugar mean the Lackey grounds will return in 2016? Nope. He’s pitching himself out of “comeback to the Lou” territory. As I stated last month, Lackey will receive a 3 year deal and the Cards will likely retain Jaime Garcia’s services. It’s just business.
For now, appreciate what Lackey is doing for a team in need of a veteran compass in a young rotation. He’s the dude, the general and the cowboy all in one leg kick and bullet to the plate. Come playoff time, he will be a force you want on your side and it won’t matter where the game takes place.
While he won’t get as much press or attention as Michael Wacha or Carlos Martinez, John Lackey has been the most valuable Cardinal in 2015, bang for buck. Who called that a year ago? If you did, pat yourself on the back and have some coffee for me.
Dose of Buffa 