“He won’t age well as a pitcher.” That was the main takeaway from every Lance Lynn critic. As he gets older, his effectiveness on the mound would die away like … Continue reading The Cardinals made a mistake in passing on Lance Lynn
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Did Cardinals burn a bridge with Lance Lynn?
The playoffs are a time where previous alliances are left behind and a new truce is set. Do whatever it takes to win the game is the idea. The St. Louis Cardinals chose to not go to Lance Lynn in the NLDS against the Cubs. The righty pitched one inning of action, taking over for Jaime Garcia and allowing a run.
He didn’t get the start in Game 2 even though Garcia was sick and he was passed over for John Lackey on three days rest in Game 4. Neither plan went well, as Garcia was shelled and Lackey gave up four runs in three innings. Neither plan had a good chance to working. This is where I want to crawl into the head of Lynn and wonder. Did the Cards burn a bridge with this guy in skipping over him?
Burning a bridge isn’t an over the top way to put it. They can be rebuilt over time but were the Cards justified in skipping Lynn against the Cubs. The North Siders had their way with Lynn but they also had their way with Michael Wacha, the game 3 starter who got shelled for four runs in four plus innings. If there was trepidation about Wacha’s abilities after a long season, why was Lynn shoved to the side?
If we are keeping score, Lynn was passed over by a…
*Mentally bruised lefty with a stomach virus
*Tired young arm.
*36 year old pitching on three days rest for the first in October in 10 years.
Does it all add up? If we go by a “what have you done lately” scenario, Lynn closed the 2015 season better than Wacha with three solid starts. In his last three starts, Lynn allowed a single earned run in 16 innings. Sure a little luck played a part in that final walk, but the stats back up the man here. Lynn had just as much merit for a postseason start as Wacha, a 2013 postseason hero who got lit up down the stretch(allowing 13 earned runs in his final 14 innings). Unlike Wacha, Lynn is a horse in this Cardinals rotation. Four straight years of 29 or more starts and 175+ innings. Shouldn’t that speak for something on the big stage?
Lynn is entering the second year of a three year, 21 million dollar deal. A final contract to buy up his arbitration before he truly cashes in. Where do John Mozeliak and Cards management stand on Lynn at the moment? Is he a trade piece? He has a team friendly contract and at 28 years of age, has plenty of ammo left. Like Matt Adams, I am getting the odd feeling that Lynn could be sitting on the trade market.
Personally, I wouldn’t want to see him go. He’s a bargain at seven million. For all the people who want the Cards to drop 160 million on David Price, don’t sleep on Lance. He’s a fine component to a rotation. Lynn gives you solid innings and kept his ERA and WHIP in check and was worth 3.4 wins above replacement to the Cards despite his struggles. Was he hurt down the stretch? Does he rely on his fastball too much? While both are logical questions, I think many under-appreciate Lynn’s value to the team.
For those who say he plummeted in 2015, they miss a few key stats. Lynn’s fielding independent pitching was an above average 3.44 and his ERA+(which factors the ballparks a pitcher throws in) was 131, way above average. Sure, he was my candidate to sit out if Carlos Martinez was healthy but for the people overvaluing Wacha’s 17 wins and placing him over Lynn for a postseason start, they are a bit off.
Lynn carries his emotions on his sleeve and won’t forget this dismissal. This isn’t like Shelby Miller getting shunned in 2013 after his first season. He didn’t have Lynn’s pedigree and durability. This is a whole new kind of beast. Something I want to see Lynn turn into a ferocious 2016 season in St. Louis. If he had a chip on his shoulder heading into the 2015 season, he has a stack resting there now.
I don’t think the Cardinals burned a bridge to Lance Lynn with their playoff decision, but the cheddar springs loving arm won’t soon forget what occurred this postseason. If he is smart, he’ll wear it like a badge of honor as he hustles towards that big payday.
Five ways to look at Carlos Martinez’s injury
The news is in. Carlos Martinez, the hot young phenom starter for the St. Louis Cardinals, is done for the season. The shoulder tightness that pulled him from Friday’s start has also cut his season short. When the 24 year old phenom left the field in tears, something bad was in the forecast. Something only an athlete knows right away. Your body flashing a check your engine light.
I don’t need General Manager John Mozeliak to use crayons and draw it out for me. Martinez is done not only for the regular season but postseason too. With ten days left in the season, the chances of Carlos coming back in early October are slim to fuggedaboutit!
As we digest this unfortunate news, I’ll provide a few reactions.
*Adam Wainwright will not start now. He isn’t conditioned to start after not throwing to hitters until this afternoon. It’s just not possible. That opportunity is gone. Waino at best will be a reliever.
*The doubt is eliminated from Lance Lynn’s playoff rotation future. It was looking cloudy for the up and down starter. Same for Michael Wacha. Each starter had been rocked hard. The page is turned with Martinez’s injury. Both these have been there before, good and bad. They are ready. I think Lance Lynn starts game 4 on the road.
*Tyler Lyons will get another start and it could fall on the final day of the Pittsburgh series. A potential big day for the journeyman arm to solidify his playoff chances. They could let Waino grab a couple innings that day but I doubt it. It will most likely be Lyons and Carlos Villanueva.
*If this is the end of the line for Martinez, what an entry into the land of major league starters. A bright future lies ahead for this man and that’s part of the reason you shut him down today and cut short his 2015 contributions. He’s young, raw and has never approached this amount of innings. The innings load may have simply worn down his right arm and shoulder. The hope is nothing lingers. No surgery is needed so Carlos can just come into spring and go right at it. He threw 179.2 innings, compiled a 14-7 record and struck out 184 batters to 63 walks in 29 starts. He finished with a flurry in September before the injury.
*The Cards can handle this folks. The 2015 team are built for rough cracked roads and uncharted waters. They have won 97 games without starters all over the field. This setback won’t slow them down. Martinez’s fire will be missed but he will still be around, building cups and smiling. The team will be hindered yet trudge on. They’ve been doing it all year.
Feel sad about the loss of one of the most exciting pitchers in the game but also know the Redbirds have this covered. If this injury manages to cripple them, this display of resilience will be all for nothing. There are 8 games left in the regular season. Then, it’s the fight to 11 wins and a 12th championship. While he won’t see the end, Carlos Martinez helped team get there by blowing everybody’s expectations out of the water. From a maybe 5 inning guy to arguably the ace of this staff. What a season. It’s been cut short but that doesn’t mean the sweetness of his season loses any of its flavor. The future of Carlos Martinez is too valuable to risk for one postseason.
As they say, play ball. That’s all you can do in this game.
The Lance Lynn experience
I’ll be honest. Watching Lance Lynn pitch isn’t easy.
When I think of Lynn on the mound, I think about Joe Cocker’s classic tune, Have a Little Faith in Me. Every time he throws 30 pitches in an inning, it plays in my head. Every time a hitter fouls off continuous inner half fastballs, it plays in my head. Have a little faith in a man known for throwing primary fastballs towards the plate for 6-7 innings every 5 days. Lynn doesn’t wish to fool hitters and that’s why he’s a hard pitcher to watch. He takes the mound, gets the ball and changes speeds on the dial of his heater for a couple hours. He may mix in a curve or a change, but they are salad dressing on his chef salad assortment. He lives and dies by his four seam fastball and two seam cutter.
In 2015, it’s been a struggle for Lynn, especially in the second half. In his last 7 starts coming into today’s tumultuous match at Wrigley, Lynn’s ERA was 5.70 with 18 strikeouts and 17 walks in only 30 innings with a WHIP of 1.77. You can’t chalk that up to a lack of run support or who is catching Lynn behind the plate. That is a lack of effectiveness from a starting pitcher who turned a corner in 2014 with a brilliant second half ERA of 2.22 after experiencing setbacks in previous closing season grinds.
Friday, Lynn walked six in 3.1 innings against the Cubs, allowing 3 earned runs and 3 hits with 77 pitches thrown. 77 pitches for 9 outs. The Wrigley start epitomizes a rough bookend for the veteran righthander. When you look at his 2015 opening start at Wrigley(6 innings, 1 earned run, 87 pitches) and the September 18th start, it’s hard to not notice the stains on the window of his season.
Is something wrong medically with him? Is it the notorious blister on his pitching hand? Is it a groin injury? The ankle turn he dealt with in August? Hard to tell. His velocity doesn’t appear to be diminished but the performance just hasn’t been there. Is it fair to have faith in Lance Lynn, defend him, criticize him or outright bash him at this point?
For now, hold the bashing and the brick wall defense and be worried about this recent trend because time is running out. This is rough but can be turned around with a couple efficient starts. After Carlos Martinez suffered a rough patch, he bounced back. Can Lynn do that? Why not? This isn’t exactly Don Draper drinking stupor territory but it’s also just baseball related stumbles.
The six month grind can get a pitcher. After he exited the game, Lynn unleashed a verbal tirade on the home plate umpire for a zone he didn’t like. You just don’t see that from the man. He may shout, scream and show emotion on the pitching mound but rarely loses it on an umpire once he leaves the game. Today the game of baseball got to Lynn in a way fans rarely witness.
The better question is does this rough patch cost Lynn a postseason rotation spot? The Cardinals sport a historically great rotation that will be hard to trim down when October 6th hits. Do you keep Lance Lynn in a four man rotation and boot out someone else? If so, who do you take out? Martinez? That’s an electric arm to pin down. Jaime Garcia isn’t a reliever and shouldn’t be. John Lackey is arguably the most valuable starter in the group and Michael Wacha has looked like a stopper recently.
Where does Lynn fit in? This isn’t a time to bring up who was pro-Lynn and anti-Lynn back when or where they are now. This is about finding the best four man group to win a World Series win. There are many reasons to love Lance Lynn and I’ve written about it. However, it’s hard to not see the downward trend in his second half performance. What do you do with a struggling pitcher if he exits the season in a funk and you only need four guys in a playoff rotation?
Lynn has three starts remaining, barring any juggling of the rotation. He starts tonight against Cincinnati at home, at Pittsburgh and at Atlanta to finish the season. All three will be crucial in figuring out where his playoff status lies.
Love or hate Lance Lynn, it’s never easy watching the man pitch but it’s no time to give up on the pitcher.
Why can’t Cardinals fans appreciate Lance Lynn?
Tonight’s starter for the St. Louis Cardinals is Lance Lynn. You may have heard of him. He pitched for Ole Miss and likes to throw a heavy assortment of fastballs at various speeds. Up, down, and all around. He occasionally throws a curve because he gets bored or while he refills the propane tank for the next inning’s cheddar assault.
The thing about Lynn is that he drives fans crazy with his starts. He throws a lot of pitches early, works long counts, gets a ton of contact and occasionally gets dinged up. Does that warrant the complaining and “Lynning” tweets? Let’s dig in.
Lynn’s fielding independent earned run average is 3.17, which leads the team(if you exclude Jaime Garcia due to a lesser amount of starts). So I ask, is the discomfort with Lynn warranted or does it connect to his unorthodox manner of recording outs? He isn’t easy to watch but gets the job done with his own two hands the most.
Lynn wins. it can’t be denied. Since he picked up a baseball and starting slinging heaters for the Cards on June 2nd, 2011, Lynn has won games. His 58 games since account for a 61% win rate, and he is on pace for less than his usual 15 wins this season due to a lack of run support. Unlike his rotation colleague Michael Wacha, Lynn doesn’t get the steady diet of 5-6 runs. While Wacha got 10 runs in his Sunday victory in San Diego, Lynn got zero in his last start against the Giants on Tuesday. With a few more runs of support, Lynn would have at least 11 wins right now. Instead, tonight he vies for win #10 in Arizona.
Lynn’s strikeouts per nine innings is at its highest peak this season, sitting at 9.6. His strikeouts to walks ratio is 2.92-1, also his best in years. His ERA+ is 132, and 100 ranks as average. That is adjusted to the player’s ballpark to more accurately showed how much damage Lynn takes. He has faced 577 batters in 2015 and struck out 25% of them, which is an impressive stat.
Lynn is durable but doesn’t go deep into games. He’s only missed a couple starts this year, an occurrence that may hold him from reaching 200 innings. He has pitched 7 or more innings only 6 times in 23 starts. At 134.1 innings with roughly 8 starts to go before the end of the season, Lynn would have to dig deeper into games to reach 200. Still a durable man who has escaped major injury.
He’s a beast and doesn’t care or hinge on pitch counts. With all the close observation on Wacha and Carlos Martinez in 2015, Lynn regularly throws 100 pitches in a start. 17 out of his 23 starts, Lynn has thrown 100 pitches. Lynn has thrown 115 or more pitches in a start six times. He’s old school. He lets his emotions fly and has learned to harness his rage and also craft a fine post game media game. While the beast may not be tamed on the field, Lynn has evolved over the five seasons in the Majors as a man and pitcher.
So, why can’t the man get the love from his fans? He doesn’t have the child like adorable phenom combo of Martinez He hasn’t had the playoff sensation of Wacha. He doesn’t have the Lackey experience. Unlike Garcia, Lynn needs to work harder for his outs. Any of these sound justified? Yes and no.
Last week, I was asked about a playoff rotation and my four man set didn’t include Lynn. You know how bad I felt and how incomplete it sounded. The rest of my day was thrown off. I wrestled with the idea. I kept asking myself, how can I leave Lance “The Motorized Fastball” Lynn out of my rotation? It’s either him or Martinez and realistically speaking, Lynn will be in the playoff rotation over Martinez. You never know. There’s five weeks left.
Here’s how much I do know. Don’t underestimate Lance Lynn. Appreciate him. He doesn’t make it look easy every time out but he defines the reason why “wins” are overrated in this game. His WAR(wins above replacement) sits at 2.3, which is above average. He has the ability to get outs without his defense. His salary in from 2014 to 2015 did rise from $535,000 to $7,000,000. There are expectations with Lynn there and it’s okay to judge and be critical of his poor outings. At this point in his career, he most likely won’t change much.
Just remember this. When it comes to Lance Lynn, one can’t forget about the big picture appeal of this Indiana product. It won’t be easy for Mike Matheny to leave him out of the playoff starting rotation hustle.
10 Reasons To Love Lance Lynn
While he may not be as popular as his Cardinals rotation colleagues, Lance Lynn is valuable for many reasons. Here are 10.
10. He has a fun time with the media. He isn’t mean or extra courteous. He treats the questions like a playful round of poker instead of an interrogation.
9. Lynn throws strikes. He’s never walked more than 76 batters in a season and owns a career 2.7-1 strikeouts to walks ratio.
8. He’s old school. Don’t ask him about pitch counts. Lynn has fired 115 or more pitches 6 times this season, more than any other Cardinal.
7. Lynn is a winner, compiling 60 wins and a 63 percent win rate over his 5 years of play.
6. He doesn’t need help from his defense. Lynn leads the Cards in fielding independent ERA at 3.27.
5. Durability. Lynn is headed for his fourth consecutive season of 30 or more starts.
4. Lynn is a bargain. For a guy who averages 13-15 wins per season, he is only making 7 million dollars this season.
3. He doesn’t allow a lot of home runs. Over 763.2 career innings, Lynn has only allowed 57 home runs.
2. Did I mention he strikes guys out? Lynn has faced 630 batters in 2015 and struck out 23 percent of them. An average of 9.0 per nine innings
- He’s an emotional beast on the pitching mound, letting his emotions fly and power the tenacity of his pitches. How can you not like that.
Lance Lynn has 11 wins and pitches through injuries and disregards pitch counts. Don’t ask him about it. He throws fastballs and that’s it. 85 percent of the time in 2015 Lynn throws a four or two seamer. Old school, bearded and unconventional, Lynn doesn’t make it look easy but he gets the job done. Year to year. Appreciate it folks and have a good Monday.
Dose of Buffa 