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A stream of consciousness from Princeton Heights
The playoffs are a time where previous alliances are left behind and a new truce is set. Do whatever it takes to win the game is the idea. The St. Louis Cardinals chose to not go to Lance Lynn in the NLDS against the Cubs. The righty pitched one inning of action, taking over for Jaime Garcia and allowing a run.
He didn’t get the start in Game 2 even though Garcia was sick and he was passed over for John Lackey on three days rest in Game 4. Neither plan went well, as Garcia was shelled and Lackey gave up four runs in three innings. Neither plan had a good chance to working. This is where I want to crawl into the head of Lynn and wonder. Did the Cards burn a bridge with this guy in skipping over him?
Burning a bridge isn’t an over the top way to put it. They can be rebuilt over time but were the Cards justified in skipping Lynn against the Cubs. The North Siders had their way with Lynn but they also had their way with Michael Wacha, the game 3 starter who got shelled for four runs in four plus innings. If there was trepidation about Wacha’s abilities after a long season, why was Lynn shoved to the side?
If we are keeping score, Lynn was passed over by a…
*Mentally bruised lefty with a stomach virus
*Tired young arm.
*36 year old pitching on three days rest for the first in October in 10 years.
Does it all add up? If we go by a “what have you done lately” scenario, Lynn closed the 2015 season better than Wacha with three solid starts. In his last three starts, Lynn allowed a single earned run in 16 innings. Sure a little luck played a part in that final walk, but the stats back up the man here. Lynn had just as much merit for a postseason start as Wacha, a 2013 postseason hero who got lit up down the stretch(allowing 13 earned runs in his final 14 innings). Unlike Wacha, Lynn is a horse in this Cardinals rotation. Four straight years of 29 or more starts and 175+ innings. Shouldn’t that speak for something on the big stage?
Lynn is entering the second year of a three year, 21 million dollar deal. A final contract to buy up his arbitration before he truly cashes in. Where do John Mozeliak and Cards management stand on Lynn at the moment? Is he a trade piece? He has a team friendly contract and at 28 years of age, has plenty of ammo left. Like Matt Adams, I am getting the odd feeling that Lynn could be sitting on the trade market.
Personally, I wouldn’t want to see him go. He’s a bargain at seven million. For all the people who want the Cards to drop 160 million on David Price, don’t sleep on Lance. He’s a fine component to a rotation. Lynn gives you solid innings and kept his ERA and WHIP in check and was worth 3.4 wins above replacement to the Cards despite his struggles. Was he hurt down the stretch? Does he rely on his fastball too much? While both are logical questions, I think many under-appreciate Lynn’s value to the team.
For those who say he plummeted in 2015, they miss a few key stats. Lynn’s fielding independent pitching was an above average 3.44 and his ERA+(which factors the ballparks a pitcher throws in) was 131, way above average. Sure, he was my candidate to sit out if Carlos Martinez was healthy but for the people overvaluing Wacha’s 17 wins and placing him over Lynn for a postseason start, they are a bit off.
Lynn carries his emotions on his sleeve and won’t forget this dismissal. This isn’t like Shelby Miller getting shunned in 2013 after his first season. He didn’t have Lynn’s pedigree and durability. This is a whole new kind of beast. Something I want to see Lynn turn into a ferocious 2016 season in St. Louis. If he had a chip on his shoulder heading into the 2015 season, he has a stack resting there now.
I don’t think the Cardinals burned a bridge to Lance Lynn with their playoff decision, but the cheddar springs loving arm won’t soon forget what occurred this postseason. If he is smart, he’ll wear it like a badge of honor as he hustles towards that big payday.
The news is in. Carlos Martinez, the hot young phenom starter for the St. Louis Cardinals, is done for the season. The shoulder tightness that pulled him from Friday’s start has also cut his season short. When the 24 year old phenom left the field in tears, something bad was in the forecast. Something only an athlete knows right away. Your body flashing a check your engine light.
I don’t need General Manager John Mozeliak to use crayons and draw it out for me. Martinez is done not only for the regular season but postseason too. With ten days left in the season, the chances of Carlos coming back in early October are slim to fuggedaboutit!
As we digest this unfortunate news, I’ll provide a few reactions.
*Adam Wainwright will not start now. He isn’t conditioned to start after not throwing to hitters until this afternoon. It’s just not possible. That opportunity is gone. Waino at best will be a reliever.
*The doubt is eliminated from Lance Lynn’s playoff rotation future. It was looking cloudy for the up and down starter. Same for Michael Wacha. Each starter had been rocked hard. The page is turned with Martinez’s injury. Both these have been there before, good and bad. They are ready. I think Lance Lynn starts game 4 on the road.
*Tyler Lyons will get another start and it could fall on the final day of the Pittsburgh series. A potential big day for the journeyman arm to solidify his playoff chances. They could let Waino grab a couple innings that day but I doubt it. It will most likely be Lyons and Carlos Villanueva.
*If this is the end of the line for Martinez, what an entry into the land of major league starters. A bright future lies ahead for this man and that’s part of the reason you shut him down today and cut short his 2015 contributions. He’s young, raw and has never approached this amount of innings. The innings load may have simply worn down his right arm and shoulder. The hope is nothing lingers. No surgery is needed so Carlos can just come into spring and go right at it. He threw 179.2 innings, compiled a 14-7 record and struck out 184 batters to 63 walks in 29 starts. He finished with a flurry in September before the injury.
*The Cards can handle this folks. The 2015 team are built for rough cracked roads and uncharted waters. They have won 97 games without starters all over the field. This setback won’t slow them down. Martinez’s fire will be missed but he will still be around, building cups and smiling. The team will be hindered yet trudge on. They’ve been doing it all year.
Feel sad about the loss of one of the most exciting pitchers in the game but also know the Redbirds have this covered. If this injury manages to cripple them, this display of resilience will be all for nothing. There are 8 games left in the regular season. Then, it’s the fight to 11 wins and a 12th championship. While he won’t see the end, Carlos Martinez helped team get there by blowing everybody’s expectations out of the water. From a maybe 5 inning guy to arguably the ace of this staff. What a season. It’s been cut short but that doesn’t mean the sweetness of his season loses any of its flavor. The future of Carlos Martinez is too valuable to risk for one postseason.
As they say, play ball. That’s all you can do in this game.
What I said on July 30th when Brandon Moss was acquired…..
First thing. No trade is a bust right off the bat because that term requires numbers to back it up. However, when looking at the Brandon Moss/Rob Kaminsky straight up swap with clear eyes, the forecast doesn’t suggest a fair trade. Or does it? Let’s take a crack.
What did the Cards get in Moss?
The Good-Moss now leads the Cards in home runs(15) and RBI(50). His bat has pop and he can fit into the middle of this lineup and help a team suffering at first base and left field. He also has hit lefties a bit this season, with a .260 average and .453 slugging percentage. Moss is under control next season and isn’t expensive. He can play around the field and has a good glove in left. If Matt Holliday is down, Moss can get time there and give the Cards some boom in their stick…
The Bad-Moss is Mark Reynolds’ twin brother. He has struck out 106 times in 337 at bats this season and is only hitting .217 with an overall OPS of .695. That’s not promising. If Moss recaptures the 2013 form where he hit 30 home runs and drove in 94, then the Cards have something. He’s 31 years old and has declined in past three seasons so there isn’t much initial hope. Moss can’t touch righthanded pitchers for his life, so don’t expect him to be more than a platoon player.
The Rub-With Matt Holliday’s injury, Mozeliak’s hand was forced. I get that. Being a solid GM means you have to roll with the punches. A player like Moss could come over to the Cards(a flip side from the Indians woeful mood) and provide a spark. He’s done it before and in recent memory. While Kaminsky is a higher type prospect, maybe fans are overvaluing this kid from New Jersey who is pitching in High A ball right now. Did Mo get swindled or did he just do what he had to do? Like the Heyward trade in November, Mozeliak’s hands were partially tied here due to the lack of power and injuries. With Matt Carpenter sinking, Holliday and Matt Adams hurt and Reynolds having a rough year, Mo had to make a move.
The Wrap-The initial reaction to this trade is negativity and that’s valid. It’s not Best Fans in Baseball ammo. It’s a basic reaction. We will never know how Kaminsky turns out and it’s fair to give Moss a fair look before determining if the trade was a complete bust.
I can only tell you what I feel right now and that’s let down. The market is insane. If the Cards checked with the Brewers on Adam Lind, the price must have been very high so that could explain the Moss acquisition cost.
Check back in at the end of September. Or after Moss’ first sombrero(4 strikeout game) or two home run game. Moss will be with the team tonight and be able to prove his worth right away. Kaminsky may not be with the Indians until 2016. There’s a small light.
The Brandon Moss show starts right away at Busch Stadium.
And the latest analysis…compiled on September 2nd before game time….
If baseball has taught us anything, it’s to trust the season and don’t give up too early. That can be attached to players as well and St. Louis Cardinals’ outfielder/first baseman Brandon Moss fits the bill perfectly.
Tuesday night was a typical Moss roller coaster. He struck out a couple times, collected a hit, got hit by a pitch and stranded some baserunners early, earning the gripes of fans on the web. If you trust the game, though, sometimes it can surprise you. In the end, Moss redeemed himself by cranking a walk off three run home run in the bottom of the ninth inning. The sweet isn’t as sweet without the bitter, right Mr. Moss. The big acquisition at the trade deadline received a “meh” reception on July 30th, but is starting to turn it all around.
When Moss was acquired at the end of July for pitching prospect Rob Kaminsky, many Cardinals fans questioned what was running through General Manager John Mozeliak’s mind. After all, Moss was trudging through a painful July that was devoid of power and wasn’t hitting the ball well at all. Moss arrived in St. Louis finishing July with a .160 batting average, .220 on base percentage and leaky .306 slugging percentage. The question was, how could this guy help the team down the stretch?
The first few weeks with the Birds didn’t go well. Moss struck out a lot and couldn’t lift the baseball past the warning track. He couldn’t read a pitch, was overpowered by average heat and was seriously pressing at the plate. He helped the Cards with a walkoff win to finish off his first series with the team against Colorado but that was the summary of his fine contributions in the initial phase. Moss was lost at the plate. He collected singles here and there but had no power and struck out 10 times in a span of seven games. Moss was 7-42 in his first 15 games with the team, with nearly twice as many strikeouts as hits. The next 10 games were better.
Since the road trip started in San Diego, Moss is 9-21 with three home runs and 5 walks to just 6 strikeouts. Like most of his teammates, Moss found his swing in the desert against the Diamondbacks. He contributed a key game winning home run in Arizona, a ball that sailed over the wall, seemingly knocking a huge boulder off Moss’ shoulders. He added another home run in San Francisco, igniting a series win for the Redbirds. Tuesday, he cranks another game winner.
Cast off as an unneeded weakening bat before he even took an at bat for the Cardinals, Moss now looms as a big threat down the stretch. When he’s right, Moss’ can mash with the best lefties in the game. He did show up with 15 home runs and 50 RBI, and now has put a charge into his stats with the recent surge. Sometimes, fans have to see the forest through the trees with players coming over from losing teams. After a dusting off the rust in his bat and finally getting his legs back after offseason surgery, Moss looks like the guy Mozeliak dialed up Cleveland for.
Does all of this make him a contender for a postseason roster spot? Sure it does. The setback in Matt Adams’ return to the team helps his cause, as does the slow returns of Matt Holliday and Randal Grichuk from their injuries. Jon Jay is returning, but Moss’ ability to hit the long ball gives the Cards something they sorely need down the stretch. A one swing game changer. Like Peter Bourjos and Tommy Pham, Moss is going to have to slug his way onto the postseason roster with a thrilling September. There are no easy rides for these guys on a team this stacked.
Can Moss do it? Time will tell but his bat will paint the picture. He will start, in either left field or at first base until Holliday, Adams and Grichuk return. These next couple of weeks could be huge. These next 7 games against Washington, Pittsburgh and Chicago are big for Moss. Swing the big stick in a time of need and it will be impossible for Mike Matheny to keep you out of the lineup. Moss is also playing for a spot on next year’s team, a role that isn’t so easily defined with the crowded roster inhabitants.
I’ve had my reservations and doubts about Moss and his ability to contribute since his first day in red, but he’s starting to change my mind. Two weeks ago he was forgotten about, gathering dust on a weak bench. In the past week, he has changed a game with one swing twice. Welcome to a true pennant race, Mr. Moss. Do you have what it takes to succeed in the red sea? Just another exciting element of this final stretch.
In order to properly analyze a trade, some at bats need to happen and time is required. My then and now look at Brandon Moss.
It’s hard to deny Adam Wainwright in any arena. Fantasy football, barbecue preparation, dugout comedian, team leader or dominant starting pitcher. Having said that, the St. Louis Cardinals shouldn’t expect Wainwright back in 2015. They don’t need him this year, unless he can play the outfield and hit. The need for pitching just doesn’t exist on a team carrying the best team ERA in the National League.
All I have heard for the past two weeks is the idea of Waino coming back way before he was expected to return. When he tore his Achilles Heel back in late April, the book on his 2015 season was closed quite tightly. The recovery time was several months and would not allow him to return this season. If he were rushed back, infection and aggravation could cause more surgery, as was the case with Ryan Howard in 2012.
Wainwright has talked about it. Radio shows have discussed it. The question has been brought to General Manager John Mozeliak’s attention, and even he seemed surprised on the Fox Sports Midwest telecast Tuesday night. When asked about Waino saying his return this season isn’t out of the question, Mo’s silky smooth retort was, “Does he?” The honest response is Waino still has to clear a lot of major hurdles in order to get back. He has to throw from a mound several times, getting the feel back. He has to face some live competition. Live bats. He needs the proper rest in between. He needs the leg to not react badly to ANY of this. See how I am stepping into far fetched land here?
Why rush back your staff ace when the pitching staff is thriving? When there isn’t a need? Right now the Cardinals would have to make a tough decision on a playoff rotation. Who would get kicked out of a strong five man rotation? Why make Waino a sixth? Would he be at 100 percent? Would 65-80% Waino be any better than Tyler Lyons and Tim Cooney? No. People will then say, how about the bullpen? They look pretty stout down there from the right side, so why put Waino in a role he hasn’t been in since the 2006 World Series? There is no need.
Unless Wainwright is being brought back to hit, there is no reason. Can he play the outfield? Can he pinch hit? He certainly may be a threatening bat when mixed in with the Cards bench, but that’s how he hurt the heel in the first place so again, why push it?
Any answer lacks logic and I have heard them all. Adam Wainwright needs to focus on getting ready for 2016 and if keeping the competitive edge in his mind that a return this year isn’t out of questions helps him, so be it.
For all intents and purposes, Wainwright is still out of action this season. There’s no reason to change that. Wainwright’s 2015 season has been lost. There’s no reason to put his 2016 in jeopardy as well. Especially when it’s not needed.
Photo credit-USA Today
Dose of Buffa 