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Cards’ do or die status is nothing new

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imageedit_1_6786761481This is it, folks. A 162 game season comes down to a do or die at Wrigley Field today for the St. Louis Cardinals. Most of you won’t get to see the game, and for that some should be thankful. Just listen to the cubicle next to you. Listen for the screams, cries and excitement. Baseball is a game of endurance and stress trading spots on a bus heading towards the brutal cold of winter.

After dropping Games 2 and 3 to the Cubs, the Cards are against the wall, scratching for space. Things started swimmingly on Friday night and suddenly took a detour away from Pleasantville. Things went terribly wrong. For once, the bats escape blame and the pitching is the culprit. How things have changed for the team with the most wins in baseball and best overall pitching staff.

While Game 2 was a breakdown in fundamentals, Game 3 was a launching pad. A Michael Bay film instead of a dynamic chess duel in the vein of The Hunt for Red October. A stunt sequence. The Cubs hit six home runs Monday night off Cardinals pitching, including three off Michael Wacha and one off Adam Wainwright. Yes, the Waino that some wanted to see start for Wacha. No pitcher went unscathed last night. Everybody had a stain on their shoulders.

Sure, Wacha’s 5th inning was ill fated. He got through four innings while allowing only two runs to a dangerous lineup but Mike Matheny sent him back out there for a third trip through the order. Even though he was hanging his curve and couldn’t locate his changeup. Wacha went out there and Kris Bryant hammered a two run home run. Kevin Siegrist came in for the 182nd time in 2015 and served up a blast to Anthony Rizzo.

After the bats drew the game to 5-4, Seth Maness came in, recorded an out and allowed a scratch single. Suddenly, Matheny wanted to bring in Wainwright. Why? I have no idea. The Cards needed a groundball and Maness is the best at getting those. Everybody wearing blue at Wrigley knew Wainwright throws a first pitch fastball. He did and Jorge Soler hammered his second home of the series, a blast that would prove to be the game winner. Just look at Waino’s face after Stephen Piscotty’s meaningless two run home run in the 9th. The heartbreak was deafening.

Here they are. Tuesday afternoon. Down 2-1 in the series and desperately needing to get this series back to Busch Stadium for a winner take all Game 5. Can they make it happen? Can the Cards pull out a victory at Wrigley?

The ball will be handed to John Lackey on three days rest. By now, more than a few people have told you his stats on this kind of rest. Two decent starts. Both taking place over ten years ago. Expecting anything more than 5-6 innings out of Lackey today is crazy. He’s 36 year old and pitching in a sandbox with high winds. If he keeps the Cards in the game, fans should be grateful.

This game will come down to the bullpen doing a good job. The Cards bats aren’t full throttle wrecking balls this series but they have a pulse. Jason Hammel is a hittable pitcher whom the Cards have beaten up this season for seven earned runs in 10 innings of work. Runs will be pushed across the plate but can the pen protect a lead?

Jonathan Broxton shouldn’t be allowed to pitch. He’s good for a home run or two baserunners per inning these days. Adam Wainwright should only START an inning. If needed, Lance Lynn should be used today. He was supposed to pitch anyway and can give the Cards big innings if needed. Tyler Lyons is down there somewhere and can be valuable. Jaime Garcia SHOULD NOT pitch. He’s never pitched out of relief and making his first time happen in a raucous environment against a power crazy team wouldn’t be wise. Save him for Game 5.

Can the Cards bullpen hold the Cubs off if they are handed a lead? That is the story heading into Game 4. Watch if you dare!

This do or die status is nothing new for the Birds. In 2011, they were down 2-1 against Philadelphia and came back to win game 5 in that classic Carpenter-Halladay showdown. They were down 2-1 against Pittsburgh in 2013 and came back on the road in Game 4 to force a Game 5 at home which they won. It’s not impossible and a situation the team has grown quite comfortable in.

The brutal part is the idea of losing to the Cubs but ladies and gents, this is a 97 win team. They aren’t a band of scrubs. They are good and will be for the foreseeable future. Get used to these battles in the NL Central. This NLDS is a preview of things to come.

Just don’t count the Cards out yet. The Cubs won’t be doing that after seeing their untouchable ace pitcher, Jake Arrieta, allow four earned runs Monday night for the first time since mid June. Both of these teams are great. For all the offense that has been on display this week, it will come down to which bullpen can be more effective. That’s it.

Play ball!

If the Cardinals want a 12th World Series, they’ll need Yadier Molina

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(Photo by Jared Wickerham/Getty Images)
(Photo by Jared Wickerham/Getty Images)

How important is Yadier Molina to the St. Louis Cardinals this month? Well, how important is water to the human body? Without it, the overall function of the body goes down. Specialized units are damaged. The longevity of the operation is hindered. Imagine a car engine without oil. A pizza without cheese. A salad without dressing. A barbecue without charcoal.

The Cardinals need Molina in more ways than a baseball card can reveal. If a chef was looking at the 2015 Cardinals in a kitchen before the last big meal and saw no Yadi available, he would be lost. The status of Molina this week is the biggest story for a good reason. Yesterday, a hand specialist told Molina that the ligament in his right hand still wasn’t fully healed but that a splint could put on and the player could try and manage the pain.

The next 48-72 hours will be interesting. Can Yadi catch 100-125 pitches in a game? Can his hand handle the pain, especially when a guy like Jaime Garcia is throwing pitches every way but loose towards the plate? What will he be able to do with a bat in his hands? Will the cool chill blunt force of the bat meeting the baseball send a shockwave of pain down Yadier’s hand? Can he handle it? Well, he did just lead the Major Leagues in innings caught behind home plate and those knees have endured 1464 games in his career. I wouldn’t count him out. He’s just too valuable.

Remember last year’s NLCS against the Giants? Molina missed the last three games and the Cardinals were eliminated. You think there’s a connection there or we all still agreeing it was Randy Choate’s fault? The Yadier Effect is powerful ladies and gents.

Why did the Cardinals pitching staff keep it together this season? Molina. He is the captain, general, sheriff or whatever you want to call him on the field. Opposing managers lose sleep thinking about him behind the plate controlling the running game. Baserunners have to rethink their stealing abilities because Yadier has a good chance of gunning you down if you try to go. The Cardinals rotation ERA led the Majors without Adam Wainwright. The bullpen ERA was second in the league. You see a connection here? Yadier Molina is the constant in this successful operation. He is the scalpel. His catcher’s ERA of 2.79 led the majors as well. He also led the league in “Don’t Even Think About” staring contests.

Take that away and what are the Cardinals? Human. Beatable. The Cardinals will be a fragile human species in this playoff hunt if they don’t have Molina. There’s death, taxes and Yadier catching playoff games. He has the most playoff experience of any Cardinal on the roster. He doesn’t have a bad bat either, compiling a .290 batting average in 86 playoff games with 31 RBI and 17 doubles. He’s a smart hitter who can work a pitcher over without even swinging the bat. He’s valuable anywhere on a baseball field.

If you are a religious person, toss in a few Hail Mary’s for Yadier’s thumb this week. Don’t think. Just do it. Remember, back in the Great Depression, people gathered in a church and prayed for a boxer to score a huge win. This is not far fetched. If you are friendly with the big man upstairs, talk to him about Yadier.

If you want to see the Cardinals go deep into this postseason, they will need their general in tow. Sure, Yadier can be a fine cheerleader and mentor to Tony Cruz. Sure, Cruz has done fine in relief of Molina. As everybody and their four year son knows, however, there is only one Yadier Molina and he’s very good at his job.

He’s needed this month and maybe the first week of November as well. If the St. Louis Cardinals want to celebrate on Clark and Spruce this winter, they will need a little cowbell and Yadier Molina to get the job done. He’s been a part of the last two World Series titles and knows his way around a big game. He won’t be 100 percent, but then again who is this time of year?

Get well, Yadier. Cardinal Nation needs you to be ready Friday night.

Four years ago: Carpenter, Halladay, and hospitals

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Time flies, but tragic situations never leave the mind. Ever. Pardon me as I blend Cardinal baseball and a tragic stop in my family’s history. A personal dose for a beautiful October day, as I flash back to a less pretty day. October 7th, 2011.

Four years ago at this time, I was in a small hospital room at St. Louis Children’s hospital. My son, Vincent, was taken to the emergency room earlier that afternoon because he was pale white and not breathing normally. It would be later announced that he was suffering from SVT, which is superventricular tachycardia, which is caused by Wolff-Parkinson-White Syndrome. Basically, there is an extra pathway sending signals towards your heart causing it to speed up. One pathway is enough so this extra route causes more action and jumped the kid’s heart rate into the 200’s. In other words, not good. We were shoved into a small room at first with about 20 nurses, doctors and surgeons.

Eventually we were moved into a slightly bigger room with less people. Family came and went. Sad faces. After they electric shocked Vinny’s heart(causing my wife to crumble), he was stabilized but he had a breathing tube shoved down his throat. We were miserable but he was worse. There’s nothing worse in life than feeling defenseless as a parent in a hospital. Anyway, let me tie this to the Cardinals before you click away.

October 7th was Game 5 of the NLDS between the Cards and Philadelphia Phillies. Chris Carpenter and Roy Halladay would oppose each other in Citizens Bank Ballpark that evening to see which team moved on to the NLCS. After a hard fought series that seemed like 16 games instead of four, two buddies were duel for the next series. What a game to take in with your son clinging to his life?

On a small 19 inch hospital television, my dad and I watched the game. My mom and wife tried to but the kid being in bad shape held their attention more. I’d be lying if I told you I wanted to stare at my poor kid for three hours while he lied there helpless. I wanted to watch baseball. I’m not a doctor and never sought out to be. I was at the mercy of doctors, nurses, fate, and whatever you want to slide into the emotional blender. I needed baseball. At our lowest moment, sports can be the greatest painkiller. A time travel special. A glorious distraction that turns our bodies away from the harshness of life.

Skip Schumaker put the Cards ahead 1-0 in the first inning, and I could have swore the Phillies would break through for at least a run against Carpenter. Here was a guy who refused to lose that fall. He was Lee Marvin in the Dirty Dozen. Clint Eastwood in High Plains Drifter. Chuck Norris in Delta Force. Rambo in First Blood. Chris Carpenter didn’t care if he was pitching in a hitter’s park sandbox. He didn’t care about the noise. He didn’t care about the odds. All he did was pitch the game of his life or another gem. After all, he pitched two complete games and three straight gems to finish September. After the Phillies got to him on October 2nd, Carp wanted revenge and he got it. He didn’t allow the Phillies to score that night. He allowed three hits, struck out three and induced 19 groundball outs. He didn’t just beat the Phillies. He took away their dignity and in the end, their best hitter in Ryan Howard, as the slugger crumbled to the ground after making the 27th out.

This win was much needed. My dad and I smiled at each other throughout the night; Two men appreciating the game like it was our first one together. Between innings, doctors came in and gave us updates on Vinny. Nurses came and went. A few family members said hello and left. I was a six foot tightened case of emotions that night. The thing about hospitals is you are never in control. You enter them and all bets are off. The docs can tell you everything is okay but the next day it may not be. When I needed a lift the most, Carpenter, Skip and the Birds gave it to me.

The rest of that postseason is fine history. The Cards beat the Brewers in six, and after falling to their knees against Texas, fought back in arguably the greatest playoff game of all time. Championship #11 belonged to St. Louis. Health returned to Vincent. He left the hospital only to return a short while later for a stomach procedure but has been healthy since. These days, his weight and height are in the high 90’s when compared to other kids. He’s a beast for all intents and purposes.

SAMSUNG

It’s a date I’ll never forget. I refuse to forget. You can’t forget where you came from because the moment you do, you leave yourself very vulnerable for what’s coming ahead. Four years ago, Chris Carpenter outdueled a Doc on the field, and the real docs helped keep my son alive. That’s baseball and life rolled into one night.

Thanks for reading.

Matt Carpenter: The 2015 Cardinals’ MVP

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Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports
Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports

If there is one guy who can pick up a stone and sling it at the immortal Jake Arrieta, it’s Matt Carpenter. He has a history of knocking down tough guys in the playoffs. Clayton Kershaw, anyone?

When I sat down and started thinking about which St. Louis Cardinals player meant the most to this 100-62 team, it came down to two players for me. Neither was a pitcher. As good as the rotation and bullpen was, it’s hard for me to give to a player who only appears in a fraction of the games. For me, unless a pitcher is unreal like Clayton Kershaw, the MVP is an everyday grinder. For me, it came down to Matt Carpenter and Jason Heyward. While Heyward was a steady hitter from early May until the end of September and a gold glove candidate in the field, Carpenter takes the top spot here because of his effect on the Cardinals.

This offense does go where Carpenter’s bat takes them. When he hits, they win. When he seems to spiral out of control and go into a massive slump or becomes unlucky at the plate, they lose or don’t win as often. Carpenter had 52 multi-hit games in 2015 and the Cardinals record in those games was 35-17, which is a .673 winning percentage.  When Carp collects a couple hits, the Cards seem to win a lot of games.

In 2015, Carpenter had another great statistical season. He started off hotter than anyone in baseball, hitting .372 with an OPS over 1.000. He cooled off in May and went into a prolonged slump in June and July, taking off a series in Pittsburgh due to exhaustion and dehydration. He also moved out of the leadoff spot in late April and wasn’t the same afterwards. Chalk it up as a weird coincidence or a crazy stat, but Carpenter seems to be at his best when he leads off.

In 314 at bats in the leadoff spot in 2015, Carpenter hit .314 with an OPS of 1.023. He slugged .634 from the leadoff spot. In 260 at bats elsewhere, he hit .224 and his OPS was below .700. One can say he simply happens to hit good when he is in the #1 spot, but the stats back up the fact over the past three seasons that Carpenter likes starting things off.

Carpenter’s .871 OPS in 2015 is only two points shy of his 2013 breakout season total. His OPS+ of 135 is only five points shy of his 2013 total. Carpenter’s WAR(via baseball reference) of 4.0 isn’t as otherworldly as his 6.4 in 2013 but still stands as a solid mark.

What separated Carp from the pack in 2015 were his power stats. The man became a lethal power bat. Carpenter led the Cardinals in home runs(28), RBI(84), doubles(44), runs scored(101), and on base percentage(.365). He was 2nd to Randal Grichuk in slugging(.505). His ability to get on base consistently compelled the Cards to win a lot of baseball games but his ability to strike a lethal blow to the opposing team with a home run or double was just as decisive.

Carpenter’s 151 strikeouts also led the Cardinals and that was a product of his expanded strike zone. Carpenter’s swing seemed to adapt to more a power stroke and that led to the higher percentage of whiffs. In 2015, offspeed pitches got the best of Carpenter, especially in June(25 percent whiff percentage) and September(30 percent). Still, the higher strikeout total can be digested as long as the OBP, SLUG and overall production stayed prevalent, which it did in 2015. Also, Carpenter drew 81 walks.

The defense isn’t flashy but Marp can make a great play when needed. Carpenter won’t win a gold glove at third base but he gets the job done and can also play second base, first base and the outfield. His versatility in the field outshines his sharpness at one particular position.

In the end, Carpenter’s ability to get on base, hit for power and put together an all around consistent season at the plate and in the field makes him my MVP candidate for the Cardinals. He battled some tough spots, but more than any player personified the grinding aspect of this 2015 team. When he is on, the Cards seem to win games and his effect at the top of the lineup is vital to their success.

You can’t go wrong with Jason Heyward, but my Cardinals MVP of 2015 is Matt Carpenter.

Sure, Carpenter is only 0-16 against Arrieta with five walks and four strikeouts, but everything changes in the playoffs. Certain players have a way of stepping up. Carpenter is one of those guys.

Cardinals NLDS opponent: Cubs or Pirates?

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Tonight, the Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates take aim at each other for the final undecided playoff spot in the 2015 postseason. The NL wildcard spot. While they duel, the St. Louis Cardinals await the victor at Busch Stadium for Game 1 Friday night. As we wait for the skies to go dark and the final order of regular season business to be resolved, I ask you this question Cardinal Nation. Who are you rooting for? Who do you want the Cards to face in the NLDS? Let me tell you who I want.

I’ll take the Cubs and for a few reasons. 

*Big bats have little experience in the postseason. The majority of this Cubs offensive attack is green when it comes to playoff experience and that means something. It’s a different beast in the postseason. The crowds are louder. Every at bat means something. The stakes are as high as ever. The opportunity to acquire something special looms over the regulars. You can tell me how good Jake Arrieta has been in the second half or how polished Anthony Rizzo has become at the plate, but they haven’t tasted the playoffs yet. They don’t know what it’s like. The only thing Rizzo knows about the playoffs is making ill-advised predictions. Jason Hammel has three starts in the playoffs. Dan Haren hasn’t pitched in October since 2009. Jon Lester has the most experience. A lot of these Cubs are new faces in the postseason.

*The Cubs rotation is weaker than the Pirates, not by much but enough. After Arrieta, Jon Lester is the likely candidate to start the NLDS. At most, Arrieta will pitch one game in this series. While they only hit .216 off Lester, the Cards beat him three times in 2015 and hit three home runs. He isn’t invincible, and neither is Hammel or Haren. If the Cards get Kyle Hendricks, they beat him in their one start. The Pirates have Francisco Liriano and J.A. Happ, two Cardinal killers, waiting for the Birds. The Cubs starters, while posting the third lowest ERA behind the Cards and Pirates, aren’t as formidable in a short series.

*The Cubs bullpen is weaker than the Pirates. Pittsburgh’s bullpen ERA of 2.67 led the Majors in 2015. The Cards had the 3rd best bullpen ERA. The Cubs have the 8th best, which is solid but not as scary as the Pirates. In the playoffs, the bullpen efforts are magnified. There are tons of small leads and the Cubs bullpen is more likely to break. If I have to chose between Tony Watson and Pedro Strop, I’ll take Strop. If I have to choose between Jorge Soria or Fernando Rodney, I’ll take Rodney. If I have to choose between Mark Melancon and Hector Rondon, I’ll take the latter. And so on so on. The Cubs’ late inning crew isn’t as formidable and has less playoff experience to boot.

*The Pirates are a better overall hitting team. They ranked 11th in runs scored(697), 9th in batting average(.260), 9th in on base percentage(.323) and slugged two points less than the Cubs as a team. While the Cubs can hit the long ball, the Pirates are more balanced and can break through against many pitching staffs. They have speed in Starlin Marte, Gregory Polanco and Josh Harrison and home run bats in Pedro Alvarez and Andrew McCutchen. The Pirates played the Cards better overall in 2015.

Both teams have very good managers in Joe Maddon and Clint Hurdle. Each field is an extremely loud and difficult place to play baseball games in.

I understand losing to the Cubs would be a very bad ending to the 2015 campaign. Depressing in fact. There’s something sinister in that potential result should the two teams meet in the Division Series. The Cubs were supposed to be playoff ready in 2016 or 2017 but instead used a very good second half and an unreal Arrieta to earn a Wildcard play in spot. The gap is closing and with a playoff victory over the Cards, the rivalry would be as fresh as ever. A loss to the Pirates would be unfortunate but more of a year to year build from Hurdle’s bunch after seasons of falling short. Let’s be honest. The Cards don’t need to lose to either of these teams, so in the end it’s a matter of which poison you want. All three teams had amazing seasons. Both batches are potent. Which one stings the most?

In the end, the Pirates pack a better all around punch. Sure, they don’t have their breakout talent in Jung Ho Kang anymore or have a 100% lethal A.J. Burnett, but still have a great rotation and lineup that hits Cardinal pitching well and played a lot of close games this season. More than five games between the Cards and Bucs ended in a walkoff this season. A playoff series would be very similar and for my money, their bullpen is what separates these two clubs. Plus, the Cubs are more free swingers, strikeout prone and can be locked down.

If I had to choose which team I’d like the Cards to face in the NLDS in 2015, I’d take the Chicago Cubs. You can’t tell me that series wouldn’t be thrilling. As my dad said after a Cards comeback victory over the Cubs this season. “We gave them a taste. Now that’s enough.” If the Cubs make it out of Pittsburgh with a victory, it will be appropriate for the sheriff in town to quickly shut them up.

That’s my take. What’s yours? Tell me in the comments section and thanks for reading. You can also find this article on KSDK Sports page.

Finally, Jaime Garcia is back in postseason action

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Jaime 2015It’s been a long time since Jaime Garcia has been healthy when the playoff started. Four years to be exact. I’m sorry, but 2012 doesn’t count. When Jaime Garcia took the mound in an NLDS game against the Washington Nationals, lasted less than 3 innings, got hammered and informed the press afterwards he had pitched hurt. That wasn’t as shocking of a revelation as Manny Pacquiao saying he fought Floyd Mayweather Jr. with a bum rotator cuff but it was enough for General Manager John Mozeliak to question Garcia’s loyalty. The next two seasons Garcia made a total of 16 starts and zero playoff innings.

Flash forward to this weekend and Garcia is ready to give the Cards a dose of nasty on the mound against the Cubs or Pirates in the NLDS. He doesn’t have to hide an injury this time. Just be deceptive enough to cause hitters to go insane at the plate trying to guess where his next pitch wants to dance. This Jaime Garcia is a far better pitcher than the young one who took the mound in the memorable Game 6 against the Rangers in 2011.

In every way, Garcia was more efficient in 2015 and harder to hit. His fielding independent pitching was 3.01 and his ERA+(which adjusts it for a player’s ballpark) was 162, which is 62 points above average. Garcia was good on the road, at Busch and anywhere else the Cards needed him to pitch. This is a guy who doesn’t need a lot of pitches to break a lineup. He doesn’t induce 7 foul balls in an at bat like Lance Lynn or struggle with his location like Michael Wacha. Garcia’s pitches have so much movement that hitters have zero clue which pitch is coming or where it will end up. His ERA of 2.43 and WHIP of 1.05 is filthy and among the best in the league. Once an risky gamble of talent, Garcia looms as one of the best kept secrets in October.

Is he pitching differently? Yes and no. In 2011, Garcia relied on his four seam and two seam fastball along with his slider and changeup. His slider got the most whiffs per swing while his two seamer did damage as well. In 2015, he is relying on that slider to collect a high whiff rate and throwing his fastball. Over the 2015 season, Garcia has thrown his fastball an average of 26 percent while relying on his two seamer and slider. Garcia isn’t throwing the curve a lot in 2015, but hitters are swinging and missing on it when he does choose the bender. As the season has gotten older, Garcia has used his changeup more as well. If there is one change between 2011 and 2015, it’s the higher use of his four seam fastball to go with his regular two seam heater attack. When he throws off speed, it appears as a golf ball to hitters.

Call it older age and higher knowledge or a more adept sense of his craft, but Garcia is a different pitcher right now and it’s exciting to watch.

A healthy Garcia gives the Cardinals a unique weapon in the playoffs. A guy who can pitch anywhere and carries a huge chip on his shoulder for time lost. While Garcia is still only 29 years old, he has to feel like his career is just beginning and there’s a lot to prove as the Cards varied assortment of young pitching filters through. Pitching that is cheaper and more flexible in their options than his own plans. 2015 may not feel like the final stand for Garcia in a Cardinal uniform to fans, but for Garcia it’s a chance to bury the hatchet.

For the first time in four years, Jaime Garcia is a legit playoff weapon for the Cardinals.

Research courtesy of Baseball Reference and Brooks Baseball

Looking back on the 2015 St. Louis Cardinals

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Piscotty injuryAs a general rule of thumb, sports fans shouldn’t take anything for granted when it comes to their teams making the playoffs, but the Cardinals make it hard to be civil in that area. For the fifth straight season, the Birds on the Bat will enter the playoffs. Second only to the New York Yankees in playoff wins since 2000, the Cards begin another round of October action as a top dog, the only team with 100 wins.  The hunt for a 12th championship begins on October 9th so what do you do until then? Talk about playoff rosters and look back on the season that got us to this moment. I’ll save roster talk for Sunday or Monday. Now I want to look back on what just happened…in the last six months. Ready or not, here I come.

*Mike Matheny solidified himself as Manager of the Year. I don’t care about narratives, storybooks or whatever jargon his critics will drudge up. Matheny’s work this year was tremendous. Not only did he win, but he did so in the most improbable manner possible. Yes, he plays his guys like Jon Jay too often and weighs too hard on his closer Trevor Rosenthal, but the job that Matheny did under the circumstances is more than admirable. It needs to be teachable. With his training room full of veteran limbs seeking care and the Memphis roster being emptied on the big league club, Matheny pulled the right triggers in directing his team towards a triple digit win season. If wins aren’t the standard that a manager should be weighed by, I am not sure what system you are running. If it’s the trust a player feels in his leader, Matheny led in that category back in 2012. In his 4th season, Matheny had to dig deep, do a lot of patchwork and find a way. He did.

*Injuries. In other words, the medical attention this team needed and how it didn’t seem to affect the box score. 2015 will be marked by the blows this team took and its ability to keep moving forward. I’ve overused the Rocky analogy but it just fits this Redbird team. They lost their ace pitcher in Adam Wainwright three weeks into the season, lost their starting first baseman, starting left fielder, starting centerfielder, and parts of their bullpen and just kept moving forward. How do you define resiliency in baseball? The ability to collects results no matter what gets thrown in your direction. This is no fairy tale. This was a boxing match and the Cards won by a landslide on points. They slipped the jab, moved around the ring and kept their feet moving for the entire fight before dropping the hammer in Pittsburgh on Wednesday.

*The year that Jaime Garcia finished a season healthy. He didn’t get going until late May and missed a few starts in June with a muscle pull, but Garcia endured and pitched the best ball of his career. The 20 starts mark the most he has put together since 2012, but look at the difference in performance. In 2012, his WHIP was 1.36. In 2015, it was barely above 1.00. In 2012, he was worth 0.6 Wins above replacement. In 2015, he was worth 3.9 WAR to the Cards. An ERA that was 3.92 in 2012 shrunk to 2.43 this season. The new Garcia brandished a healthy shoulder as well as a more efficient pitcher on the mound. The last time the lefthander entered the playoffs, he was hiding a bum shoulder that would self destruct in the series against the Washington Nationals. This fall, he enters as arguably the Cards nastiest pitcher. A weapon instead of a liability.

*John Lackey turns back the clock and redefines home cooking. Lackey put on a show from early June through the rest of the season, but his work at Busch Stadium was unreal. Posting a 1.93 ERA at home in 17 starts, Lackey gave the Cards league best rotation a little extra grit and pitched above his preseason expectations.

*Carlos Martinez goes from “5 inning emotionally unhinged guy” to arguable ace inside six months. Martinez stepped up in more ways than one in 2015, becoming one of the team’s most steady arms and enjoying a stretch of 11 games of consecutive quality starts. He won 14 games, struck out 184, and pitched 179.1 innings. His season was cut short, but he proved that he belongs near the top of this rotation and not as a #5 guy. If he keeps getting better, Martinez is going to be a handful for years to come.

*Matt Carpenter puts together another quiet MVP type year. The man exploded out of the gate in April and May only to severely stumble in June and July. Where Carp goes, the offense goes with him. When he returned to the leadoff spot on July, Carpenter collected four hits(2 home runs) and reminded people that sometimes conventional wisdom doesn’t apply to athletes. While it would be easy to assume he could hit anywhere in the lineup, Carpenter does prefer the leadoff spot and the stats backed it up. In the second half, Carpenter has hit 19 home runs and slugged .592. An on base specialist for his life, Carpenter has hit 28 home runs and smoked 44 doubles in 2015. He’s scored 101 runs and drawn 81 walks to go with the eye opening strikeout total of 151. With a bigger stick comes a higher probability to miss, so I’ll take the K’s with the extra power. On a team that struggled to exhibit power, Carpenter has supplied the most from the leadoff position. After a midseason swoon, he found his stoke in a big way.

*Jason Heyward answers the bell and fulfills the promise. He came to the team nearly a year ago in the wake of Oscar Taveras’ passing, and was ridiculed in April when he started off with a chill in his bat. From May 1st, Heyward has been steady at the plate and a renegade in the field. Heading towards another gold glove and owning 9 assists(all that seemed to be game changing plays) in right field, Heyward leads the team in overall WAR and versatility. He may always let the HR/RBI baseball card mafia down, but when it comes to all around game and the ability to change it, Heyward fulfilled the promise of the winter preview. The team would be smart to sign him.

*Yadier Molina works wonders behind the plate again. Sure, his bat may not exhibit the power Yadier displayed in the past, but he still drove in 61 runs and handled this MLB best pitching staff. When it comes to catchers and WAR, the measurements aren’t fair or detailed enough to truly show how important Molina is to this team. So you look at catcher’s ERA, which is the average the pitcher has when Molina is behind the plate. Molina led the National League with a 2.79 CERA and caught 41 percent of potential base stealers. With all the injuries and newcomers to this staff and balancing it all, Molina showed once again why he is so valuable.

*The rookies make a dent. Randal Grichuk could have been an easy rookie of the year candidate if he doesn’t get injured. His 47 extra base hits still rank among the leaders in rookie hitters. Stephen Piscotty joined the team in late July and has done nothing but hit since he arrived. The sacrifice fly against Atlanta in July. The 2 run double off the Cubs in early September. Piscotty and Grichuk combined for a highly impressive season that gave the Cards a much needed boost. Tommy Pham finally made an impact in the second half and has put himself in roster contention. The next man up method is so memorable due to guys like Piscotty, Grichuk and Pham.

There are others. Trevor Rosenthal had a great season, slashing 20 points off his WHIP while saving 48 games. Kevin Siegrist turned into a dynamic setup man and a workhorse. Kolten Wong’s sophomore season had its up and downs but he still has 43 extra base hits. Matt Holliday’s power numbers were down in an injury shortened season but his OBP is still potent. Lance Lynn suffered a few bumps in the road down the stretch but still gave the Cards another durable solid season. Jhonny Peralta’s production didn’t dip much from 2014, even though his second half wasn’t the best.

In a season that seemed more rockier than the record actually showed due to injuries, the Cardinals showed why they are so tough and will be for years. They react instead of panic.  They didn’t make a big midseason trade or enjoy a smooth ride this season. They didn’t have a 30 HR/100 RBI guy or two. They couldn’t hit at times. They made a lot of games close and painful. They emptied their Memphis roster. In the end, they won 100 games. While the Mets and Blue Jays had to trade their way to an improved roster, the Cards relied on their internal methods like they always do and come into the playoffs stronger than ever.

While fans shouldn’t expect this to happen every year, it’s hard to not think of October baseball without the Cardinals coming in as favorites. It’s as likely as Pumpkin Spice Latte’s brewing at Starbucks and leaves growing on trees.

Relax. Leave your nails alone. Save your stress and anxiety for next weekend when the real games start. The hunt for the World Series. The quest for 11 wins begins on October 9th. Are you ready? The Cardinals are and this month should be another memorable run.

Rick Ankiel’s Fall: 15 Years later

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AnkielThere wasn’t a more bittersweet moment in my eight years up on the Manual Scoreboard at Old Busch Stadium than when Rick Ankiel lost control on the mound on October 3rd, 2000.

15 years later to the day, I think back about that fall.

When I think about Rick Ankiel’s story, I think of three parts. The rise in the Cardinals farm system as a premier pitching prospect, the fall due to the wildness in the 2000 playoffs, and the rise as a hitter in the Major Leagues. No matter how you cut it, his tale is bittersweet. Ankiel turned 36 years old on Sunday and is out of baseball. He has a book coming out later this year about his experiences as a professional baseball player, but when I think about Rick, one moment comes to mind.

1999. His arrival against the Montreal Expos on August 23rd on the road. In a season dictated by Mark McGwire’s encore show, Ankiel struck out 6 batters, walked 2, threw 82 pitches and went five innings. The debut showed a unique talent. It wasn’t a flash in the pan. In 2000, Ankiel came into his own as a legit talent. He won 11 games, struck out 190 batters in 175 innings and seemed to be a future #2 or ace. He was 21 years old and full of untapped potential. He possessed the greatest curveball I’ve ever seen thrown by a baseball player. It was nasty and had a 12-6 descent that aggravated hitters. (more…)

The Missing Argument for Starting Jon Jay

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The 2015 Jon Jay experiment must end!

I’ll keep it simple with this short dose in between Cardinals games this evening. Mike Matheny needs to stop starting Jon Jay. The project “get Jay back to 2014 form” is dead and has been for a while. Imagine an old high school coach trusting that one legged guy who used to be good before well….he lost the leg, and yet the kid keeps starting. Why? What is going through his head? Where is the reasoning?

Please, save me the Jon Jay stats from 2011-14. I look up stats for EVERY article I write and know Jay’s stats very well. I’m a Jay fan and have defended him in the past or right up until this summer when his bat went limp. What he did last year has zero to do with what he isn’t doing this year. It’s like looking at old pictures of a cool car before its engine broke down. Seriously, don’t do that.

Case in point. Today, in a 1-0 game, Matheny had Jay bunt a runner over in the early innings. The #2 hitter bunting someone over. Tommy Pham wouldn’t do that and Stephen Piscotty wouldn’t do that. Last year’s Jay may not have done that. It’s a bizarre thing that did lead to one of the Cardinals’ runs but also left people scratching their heads.

In case you didn’t know, these Pirates games are super important. Like making that dinner with your in laws because it’s a steakhouse and not a Denny’s. Jon Jay shouldn’t start both games of a doubleheader. Like ever. Especially right now. There’s no way to break it down but do it like this.

For the season, in 203 at bats, Jay has 7 extra base hits. His .566 OPS is pathetic. His WAR is obsolete. In his last 7 games, he is 1 for 7. In his last 15 games, he is 6 for 30. In his last 30 games, he is 13 for 67. Ouch.com is where that belongs.

This is the time of the year where feelings and past connections need to stop. You may ask, if not Jay, who should start? Uh, how about Ray Lankford. I’m kidding. How about Pham?

In his last 7 games, Pham is 5 for 17. In his last 15 games, he is 16 for 44. In his last 30 games, he is 26 for 81. More at bats than Jay but that’s the point. Pham is more in tune and locked in. He also has 4 home runs and 14 RBI in that 30 game stretch. When he is hitting #2 or #6, Pham is a weapon. In just 145 at bats, Pham has 17 extra base hits. See a trend here yet?

Stop starting Jay. He may hit a squib up the middle for a single that eludes a glove(see Monday night) or he may get plunked in the butt by a pitch, but those are the best chances he has of reaching base and there is ZERO logic to start that accidental offense over a guy like Pham. With Piscotty still getting back into his skin after Monday’s collision in center field, Pham has to be the guy. He was inserted into today’s game for Jay, but maybe that was Matheny resting his guy.

I am a Matheny apologist but the one thing I can’t defend is his need to start weak hitting formerly decent outfielders over more electric younger players. There’s no defense lawyer in town who can take the stage in court and defend the reasoning of starting Jay in both games of a crucial doubleheader.

The 2015 Jon Jay experiment has to end. Try again in 2016. This is a lost season for Jay.

2015 Cardinals are the most resilient team you’ve ever seen

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imageThere they were. Standing over their fallen teammate in the outfield. Kolten Wong, Matt Carpenter and Peter Bourjos looked like a ton of bricks just fell on their shoulders. Stephen Piscotty was down and out, barely moving after a collision with Bourjos in the 7th inning of Monday’s hotly contested series opener. After being carted off the field on a stretcher and giving the proverbial “I’m okay” wave, Piscotty’s absence hung over a team that came into the game with a MLB best 98 wins but seemed bruised and removed from competition for the moment. An hour later, they had a piercing 3-0 win that trimmed the magic number to 2. The Cardinals are officially the toughest team in baseball. They take hits and seem to move faster and more efficiently than before.

There was Mark Reynolds pumping his fist after a two run home run that silenced PNC Park even more than the Piscotty collision did and even elicited some boos. His blast emptied the lower levels of the ballpark and stamped a expiration date on the chances of the Bucs catching the Cardinals. Monday night showed baseball fans why the game can be so frustrating and uplifting at the same time.

It wasn’t pretty. The Cardinals tried to lose the game multiple times. They gave the Pirates ten walks, free passes to score. The Pirates loaded the bases four times and couldn’t score. This was the ugliest shutout in recent memory. Lance Lynn, the up and down rotation cheddar dispenser, gritted his teeth for five stout pressurized innings. He escaped jams with pop ups, strikeouts and amazing defense that included a Jason Heyward assist in the second inning. Heyward’s cannon shot from center field to nab the Pirates risky attempt at an early lead seemed to swing things back in the Cardinals direction. It’s just the following events didn’t play out that way.

Pirates starter J.A. Happ(owner of one of the best earned runs averages in baseball since coming over from Seattle) shut the Cards down for six innings. A maddening stretch that totaled 13 innings of shutout baseball over two starts from Happ on the Cards. When he left, it felt like Sandy Koufax was taking a holiday. Okay, maybe not, but the man was dealing.

The Pirates bullpen, one of two teams with a better ERA than the Cards’ backend arms, denied the Cards access for two more innings before the 9th inning. Mark Melancon, owner of 50 saves and a build that reminds me of Ken from Street Fighter, took the mound and quickly dispatched Greg Garcia on a strikeout. His cutter, which he picked up from Mariano Riveria in New York, was filthy and was causing roadblocks in the Cards lineup all season. He was the slightly less hopeless divisional rival behind Aroldis Chapman. Matt Carpenter poked a single to right center. Jon Jay followed with a seeing eye single that caused Gregory Polanco to fumble it and Andrew McCutchen to also mishandle it, allowing Carpenter to score from first base. Reynolds followed with the smoker and it was time for Rosenthal.

Following back to back outings of serving up heartbreaking losses, Rosenthal immediately lit fires around the hearts of Cardinal Nation in the 9th inning. He walked Cutch and then Starlin Marte got a single. Neil Walker came up and seemed to take a 20 minute at bat, which nearly ended with a groundout but Walker pleaded with the umps that he fouled it off his foot. Too bad he faked it by hobbling on the wrong foot. Rosenthal blew him away with a 98 mph heater tailing away to send him walking back to the dugout. Francisco Cervelli lined out to Heyward and then it was Aramis Rameriz, the famous Cardinal killer nicknamed the Sith Lord by my good friend Daniel Shoptaw. Rameriz lined out. It was over.

The Cardinals crossed Heartbreak Ridge again with a narrow victory that looked more like 3 to 2.5 plus blood, sweat and tears rather than a 3-0 shutout. Rosenthal picked up his 48th save, which gives him the single season record for a Cardinal. He did so in classic Jason Isringhausen fashion, putting runners on and playing with St. Louis fans blood pressures and nerve endings. Would we have it any other way? Don’t answer that.

With a win Tuesday, the Cardinals would collect win #100 and clinch the National League Central division. It’s that close, ladies and gentlemen. The worries of a long hard 162 season coming down to one last win. The mark seems more special this year due to the numerous injuries and setbacks.

The Cardinals have been dealing with loss since last October, when the team lost young phenom Oscar Taveras in a brutal drunk driving related car accident. The death rocked Taveras’ best friend, Carlos Martinez and the clubhouse. In March, Tommy Pham injured his quad in spring training. Jaime Garcia went down in March also with a leg injury, not returning until May 21st. In April, Adam Wainwright and Jordan Walden went down. In May, Matt Adams tore his quad. In June, Matt Holliday tore his quad. Jon Jay was injured for the majority of the season. Reliever Matt Belisle missed 2.5 months. Randal Grichuk injured his elbow in August. Now Piscotty goes down. The Cardinals just keep winning, making this 2015 group a truly special band of brothers.

Word on Piscotty is all tests for concussion and other head related injuries came back negative, meaning the kid will be sore today but otherwise escaped a more drastic setback. Finally, a bit of luck for the Birds.

Tonight, it’s Michael Wacha and Charlie Morton, a matchup heavily favoring the Cardinals, which is why you should expect a 1-1 game in the 9th inning. With this team, anything is possible. They take “You Never Know” to a whole new level.

As Joe Buck said in 2011, “What a team. What a ride.” I have a feeling this October will be even more memorable. Stay tuned for more roller coaster theatrics.