Category: St. Louis Cardinals

Daily Cards Bits

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(PHOTO-Associated Press)

After last night’s gritty rousing take down of a hot team in the Washington Nationals, it was good to be a Cardinal fan.  With 5 games remaining, they are two games up on Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, who will duel with each other over the final weekend of the season and have guaranteed themselves a spot at least the wild card game.   Once deemed comedic, the NL Central now sports three playoff teams.   The Cardinals dispatched the Nats last night, 4-3, using every weapon in their arsenal.   Pitching, timely hitting and great bullpen work.  Let’s take a look at a few things that stand out heading into tonight’s battle and the rest of the week.

*Adam Wainwright, ladies and gentlemen.  Make that four brilliant outings since the Reds debacle.   Our ace has righted himself and after a rough first inning that hung on one bad curveball, Waino shut down the Nats for the next 6 plus innings.  It was impressive and satisfying to see our guy stop a red hot hitting team and send a message.   So many times in big series the past 2 months, Waino would falter in that series opening game.  Last night, he was dominant.   112 pitches, 5 strikeouts, 0 walks, 7 hits, and 3 runs.  Steady and productive.  If this is the last start he makes, what a statement.  He is 18-9 with a 3.01 ERA, 214 strikeouts and 236.1 innings pitched.  A true horse shows little doubt.  Waino walked only 34 batters all season and threw 5 complete games and 2 shutouts.   He won’t win the Cy Young but he reminded us in September why he is the ace of the present and future.

*Matt Carpenter.  It seems like every night he breaks a record.  Most doubles.  Most multi hit games, involving doubles, home runs and fine facial hair.  I kid but with this versatile player, it is easy to get swept up.  Carp has given so much to this team.   A fine defensive second baseman.   A great leadoff hitter.  A guy who is as good as Yadi Molina when working a 2 strike count.  He is hitting .324 with 197 hits and 124 runs.  He has 11 HR and 77 RBI.   With the 54 doubles, he also has 7 triples with an on base percentage at .397.   He borders on the ridiculous, which is why local commentator Dan McClaughin tosses praise at him like we toss water down our throats.    He is easy to like, humble, worked his ass off to get here and has turned in one of the most surprisingly productive season in Cardinals history.   The man deserves all the words directed his way.   Stay tuned.  His season isn’t over yet.

*Carlos Beltran came back from the dead last night and launched a game winning 2 run home run, his first in a month.  While his average has dropped to .298, Beltran still has 24 HR and 84 RBI to go with 162 hits.  Keep in mind he has also played in 141 games, a number no one prescribed in spring training but without Oscar Taveras looming, was given new realism last month.   Beltran’s health is always in play because of his sore knees.   He’s old but still capable of changing a game with one swing.

*The closer situation doesn’t scare me.  This team has gone with committees before and flunked out completely but something tells me this group is special.  I am normally against the committee idea.  I am old fashioned.  I like having one guy be the option and the stopper.   No negotiation.  However, I am all for a committee that includes the likes of Trevor Rosenthal, Kevin Siegrist and John Axford.  That is a deadly mix with raw talent and save experience.  They will work and there’s a good chance one will stand out and take the job.  What I don’t like is seeing Mike Matheny use two of them in the ninth inning last night.  Siegrist and Rosenthal combined to close the game and while I understand it’s a close 1 run battle,  I would like to only warm up one of them so the other is fresh for the next day.   Rosenthal has been on and off lately, while Siegrist has no experience closing and Axford was the best for a 2 year period.   However, some pitchers just go out and pitch and don’t think of the inning.   Here’s to hoping that is the idea with this group.

*It is important to note how strong of a club the recently eliminate Washington Nationals have.   Their lineup is full of imposing hitters like Jayson Werth, Ryan Zimmerman, Bryce Harper, Ian Desmond, and Adam LaRoche.  Their rotation is sharp and bullpen can’t be taken lightly.  They had a horrible two months to begin the season and dug a deep enough hole for the Braves to run away with the division.   Factor in the strong play of the NL Central teams and this Davey Johnson led crew is looking up at playing spoiler this week.

*As long as Joe Kelly doesn’t face the Brewers he will be decent.   The avenging formerly banished righthander was shelled again by the Brewers, allowing 6 runs(3 earned) and again using bad defensive skills to pour more gasoline on the fire.  I still think Kelly is aces and he has another start to prove so and one that could be vitally important on Saturday against the Cubs.

*Medical updates on Allen Craig bring a bad taste to my mouth.  The RBI machine who was injured in a first place accident on September 4th will get another x-ray on his foot.   This only tells me the club is confused about his lack of progress and re-analyzing his injury.  This can’t be good for his chances.   He has barely swung a bat or fielded a ball in the past 3 weeks.  The Cardinals are doing okay without him but seeing other big players go down and others become weary.   If Craig is in, Beltran gets more rest.   With him out, the other sluggers have to fill the void.  The updates on Craig remind me Scott Rolen and Mark Mulder.   At first, it wasn’t a fracture and he was put in a boot.   Weeks went by.  No progress.  Wrong strategy?  Bad luck? You don’t need a lab coat to figure out the Cards medical staff misses as many fastballs as Pete Kozma.  When will we see Craig play again?  He is too important to write off as pending.

*Matt Holliday is hurt again.  Every time the big guy goes on a streak, his back aches and sits him down.   He has missed two games due to back spasms.   With these kind of injuries, a return is hard to tell because the pain can linger or suddenly just vanish.    Due to other fragile areas of the lineup, Holliday’s status is vital.   If he can’t go, Shane Robinson is inserted into the lineup and the 6-9 spots in the order seem very ordinary.  Easy outs.  When Matt Holliday goes down, the Cards lack of outfield depth becomes very apparent.

*The injuries to Craig and Holliday will expose yet again a very weak Cards bench.  WIthout Adams on the bench lingering as a threat, all the opposing team will see are AAA able players with little experience winning clutch games.   Unlike Craig, who can be replaced with Adams, there is no easy replacement for Holliday.   Which makes the absence of a fresh young talent like Oscar so painfully visible.

The Cards are limping into the finish but they approach it as one of the strongest teams in the league.   Take a step back every once in a while and remember this.  The Cardinals have reached the playoffs 10 out of the past 14 seasons and gross 3.4 million souls a year in a small market.  We are a game back of the Braves for the best record in the NL and have dealt with the largest amount of starting player injuries in the majors.   Yet here we are.  5 games to go.  27 games over .500 and 2 games ahead in the division.   Every year, no matter if it’s Tony La Russa or Mike Matheny, with or without Albert Pujols, using 20 rookies or 5 rookies, the Cards find a way to compete.  They are always right there in September.  If Holliday and Craig can make recoveries, there isn’t a stronger club in the National League.  The Dodgers and Braves are beatable.  No team is invincible.  For the Cards, everything is at least possible.

Time is ticking away.  The regular season is nearly over.  Where will the Cardinals stand on Sunday?   Let’s hope a division series berth is in talks.

Thanks for reading,

DLB

Cardinals Always Have An Answer For Chaos

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Remember when Allen Craig went down and Cardinal nation panicked.   We looked at each other and screamed, “We can’t lose our RBI machine!”  No way.  Call the season over. Bring in Grissom and the CSI crew.  Turn the channel, right?   Well, unless people forgot who the best pinch hitter was for the first half of the season, they will know the blocked man known as Big Country Fried Steak Biff Webster Matt Adams was waiting in the wings.

In uniform and ready, Adams made himself known to ALL of Cardinal Nation and elsewhere in the MLB Network Fantasia when he launched two extra inning home runs on September 4th in Cincinnati to propel the Cards to a come from behind win.   Adams’ emergence has made Craig’s absence a general moot point.   Make no mistake, missing the crispy clutch reliability of Allen stings on some nights, but Adams is making first base a comfy spot for himself in 2014.  Let’s put it this way, the more he hits, the easier I can see the Cards letting Carlos Beltran go if he gets too greedy in 2014.  A great pinch hitter is one thing.  A solid power bat who likes to strike out is fine for such a young player like Adams.   He goes up there looking for the ranch dressing dripping off the buffalo chicken wing and when he connects fully, the ball doesn’t stop traveling before the camera needs a nap or a person in the stands needs an ice pack.  The kid is good as advertised and another sign of this team’s massive depth.

Let’s look elsewhere real quick to bring the lost crowd up to speed or just lay on the icing.

*Chris Carpenter goes down for good in July.   Finally enter Joe Kelly.  9-1 in the past 2 months as a starter.  Bang boom Carpenter is a bench Jedi and Kelly is a go to guy.

*Rafael Furcal goes down, Skip Schumacher moves on, the middle infield is trash unless Matt Carpenter turns into a solid defensive second baseman and happens to lead the NL in 3 hit games, multi hit games, doubles, collects 192 hits, scores nearly 120 runs, cool facial hair consistency and oh yeah, he is a legit leadoff guy.

*Jaime Garcia bites the dust and Jake Westbrook falls off the wagon while Lance Lynn once again falls apart mentally.  What to do?  Call up and insert into the rotation Michael Wacha.   An over the top dealing hard thrower who is only showing a hint of his greatness.  Even when he gets beaten up, the kid manages to keep us in it.

*Jason Motte goes down before spring training finishes, Mitchell Boggs steps in and blows up and the closer role is hanging in the wind before April wraps up.  Enter Edward Mujica.  He converts 37 saves in 41(should be 42 but tonight he was wrongfully spared official blame) before burning out in late September.  Enter John Axford, who puts out a fire on a wild night in Milwaukee Friday night.  Axford, Trevor Rosenthal or white hot rookie lefty Kevin Siegrist will be able to take over for Eddie if the Chief needs relocation to salvage a less than stellar final month.

And, by the way, Yadi Molina is still irreplaceable.   

Add it up ladies and gents and depth wins championships.   Remember 2006 when Izzy broke down and the closer role went to a young unproven arm named Adam Wainwright?  Yeah, we won it all that year.   In 2011, we leaned on rookies named Jon Jay, David Freese, Allen Craig, and journeyman arms like Edwin Jackson and Octavio Dotel to seal the ring distribution.  2013 will be no different at least in preparation.  The Cards are stacked with options.  Tonight when the fire was put out and the lead was reclaimed, forgotten man Carlos Martinez registered his first career save.   There are options upon options in this team’s windpipe.   What happens when Craig returns?  Adams becomes the versatile weapon.  Beltran gets rest.  If Mujica goes to the 7th to calm down, you move Siegrist to the 8th and Rosenthal to the 9th.  As I have said all season long, the Cards have good problems.  Massive amounts of depth.  More on the way too.   The payroll will either be lean and mean in the coming years or the Cards can beef up certain areas with salary if needed.  They are where every GM wants their club to be sitting.  In the promised land surrounded by strong ready to produce crops.

Adams, with only 264 at bats, has 15 home runs and 48 RBI.  In the month of September, he is hitting .317 with 6 HR and 12 RBI.  That’s depth on the roster.

Final Sweet Gravy Thought-The Pirates lost a crushing game tonight against Cincinnati.  The Bucs blew a 5-2 lead in the 9th and lost via a Joey Votto opposite field jack that brought the Reds even with Pittsburgh for second place.   With 8 games to go, the Cards are up 2 games on each team.   Unless crazy happens, it will be hard to knock the Cards out of this position atop the NL Central.  Remember near mid August when tears were falling, Yadi was down and the Cards were looking up at the Pirates in the division?  Guess what, those days are LONG GONE.

Feel good, get some rest and come back ready for another Cardinal win tonight.  Win #90 was pretty good.  #91 will be even sweeter.

Thanks for staying,

Dan Buffa

@buffa82 on twitter

Arch City Sports/United Cardinal Blogger Contributor

Red Wolf Roll Call Radio Guest

Film-Addict.com

PHOTO CREDIT(David Kohl, USA TODAY Sports)

Winning The Series is Key for Cards

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I won’t lie to you and say that Thursday’s loss in Colorado didn’t leave a decent gap in my stomach lining and had me hot and fiery with my temper for hours afterwards.   A game that the Cards came back to take 2 leads, saw those vanish, and ended up losing in 15 innings is always going to hurt a fan.   We used 10 pitchers, most of the bench and couldn’t win the series in Denver, a notorious rough place for visitors.  While it was hard to watch and warning signs became more visible, I will say the Cards did their job and at least split the series.  At this point for the streaking Birds, staying the course and avoiding an extended period of inept play is the key.  Failing to win the Colorado series left the Cards only a game ahead of the Pirates and 2 ahead of the Reds, but as always, the Rogues in Red kept things interesting and avoid the spectacle of being perfect.   Which baseball team is perfect?

Let’s look at the facts.  The Cardinals are 25 games over .500 with 9 games to play and they enter a series with Milwaukee tonight.  Shelby Miller takes the mound with Lance Lynn starting on Saturday.  Every game isn’t crucial but another chance to hammer the nail in further.  If the Cards can win the remaining 3 series, it will be hard for the Reds or Pirates to catch them because they are facing each other 6 out of the last 9 games.  The Birds are in the driver’s seat and can stay there as long as they don’t blow up their own car.  Think of it as sitting in the room with a bomb but needing the enter the detonating code yourself for things to get messy.   There are no games with PITT and CIN left on our schedule.  We face the Brewers for 3 and finish with the Nationals and Cubs at home.  While Washington has played well lately in their own pursuit of a playoff berth, the home confines of Busch should play into our hands.

Things to Think About As The Last Stretch Begins-

*The Reds and Pirates duel tonight with Matt Latos and Francisco Liriano facing off in Pittsburgh.  The best pitchers on their team starting things up could set the tone for that series.

*Huge starts for Miller and Lynn this weekend.  Now isn’t the time for either young pitcher to implode or give away a game.  Losing to the Brewers isn’t horrible.  Losing the series could be very bad.   The rookies will have a substantial role in how this weekend plays out.  Miller has been great against Milwaukee this season, going 3-0 with a 1.08 ERA with 25 strikeouts in 25 innings.   Lance Lynn hasn’t been as sharp but will need to continue his September renaissance for the Cards to be successful.  In his last 2 starts, Lynn has pitched 12.1 innings and allowed 2 earned runs.  He pitched well against Milwaukee at home last week but the road is another story.  On August 20th, Lynn gave up 4 earned runs on 9 hits in 6 innings.    Joe Kelly pitched on Sunday and looks for revenge against a club who handed him his only loss in 10 starts dating back to July 27th.

*The Bullpen got taxed in Colorado, giving Miller and Lynn more reason to shine.  Trevor Rosenthal was burned in Monday and Thursday’s games, making his three post fatherhood appearances a little darker than usual.   Rosenthal has been great this season but could be tiring out after a ton of work.  It’s possible.  Seth Maness and Kevin Siegrist remain fierce steady options.   Fernando Salas did give up the game winning yesterday but got 4 outs before crumbling.  Tyler Lyons was stout yesterday in extended work.   With the exception of Adam Wainwright, no starter went more than 6.1 innings in Colorado.   At some point, one of the other starters has to be more durable.  Think of the bullpen as a secret weapon in a playoff series.  If they are seen too often, exposure heightens and a breakdown is more reasonable.

*Be worried about Edward Mujica but don’t start hating the guy.   This is his first year of closing.   He could have reacted like Mitchell Boggs to the closer role and lost his mind and ability.  Instead, he is 37-41 and has been one of the biggest reasons the Cards are in first place.  Talk all you want about Matt Carpenter’s emergence or Yadi Molina’s brilliance but forget all of it if Mujica doesn’t rescue the bullpen and seal the door.   If you don’t have a good closer, everything else doesn’t matter.  In August and September, he has started to show signs of wear.  In August, he pitched more than an inning 4 times, firing off 3 two inning stints in succession.   He allowed hits but finished the month with a 1.71 ERA.  In September, things have gotten worse.  In 7 appearance this month, Mujica has allowed 12 hits and 5 runs in 6. 1 innings of work.   He has only walked 4 guys the entire season yet given up 8 home runs.   It’s important to remember Mujica is a contact pitcher and not a swing and miss guy.  He gets a lot of whiffs with his splitter but for the most part, pitches to give his defense a chance to make a play.  He could be getting tired, worn down and hitting a wall.  He struck out Todd Helton to convert a save on Wednesday but gave up a homer to Helton to lose Thursday’s save.  The first pitch was a high inside fastball.  The second was a floating splitter.  At this point, Eddie has to be perfect with his pitches or they will get hit.   Does this mean you make a change?  No.  Mujica is our guy.  Don’t pull the guy who has done the kind of job he has without getting a ton of dirty looks.   If he blows another in Milwaukee this weekend, you look at him again and make sure he really is healthy.  Is he hurt or just wearing down?  Mujica has been solid all year but his magic could be coming to an end.  Luckily, the Cards will have options IF our current closer continues to fail.

*Adam Wainwright righting the ship means everything to this ballclub.   After 2 horribly graphic losses to Cincinnati where he was tipping pitches, Wainwright has responded with 3 Ace like starts against Pittsburgh, Seattle and Colorado.  He is pitching deep into games, throwing 115 pitches with ease, and winning.   He had a rough first inning in Colorado but shut them down for the next 6 innings in route to a comeback Cards win.   In his last 3 starts totaling 22.2 innings, Waino has allowed 4 runs and struck out 22 batters.  He is back to being the steady dominant pitcher we have come to expect.  When Waino is right, the Cards are at their best.  Every team needs one ace, one good closer and one clutch hitter.

*Matt Carpenter has a chance at 130 runs scored and 200 hits.   That’s MVP talk right there.  He will be in the conversation yet probably won’t win the award.

*The John Axford trade is looking pretty good at this point.   Short term and small sample size but in 7.2 innings as a Cardinal he has allowed 2 runs and struck out 9.  Pitching coach Derek Lilliquist is working closely with the former Milwaukee closer to sharpen his release point and movement.  Pitch selection is all coming from Yadi.  The Ax has proved to be a nice bullpen weapon.  One more reason to cut Fernando Salas loose.

*The only reason one can think of to keep Jake Westbrook around is in case an emergency start is needed but with his inability to warm up quickly or switch gears from reliever to starter, how good of an option is that?  When Matheny realizes he already has two hungry young starters in his bullpen in Carlos Martinez and Lyons, the need for Jake will decrease.

*Speaking of Baby Carlos, where was he yesterday?  No reasonable excuse can be given for Salas entering that game before Martinez.   Forget experience.  Go with skill level.  Fernando didn’t embarrass himself but did give up the run and failed to tag the runner out when he overran homeplate.  Decisions come back to haunt a manager.

*That said, Mike Matheny is having a good season.  He has improved in record and done well with another long list of agonizing injuries.  After losing Allen Craig, Matheny has used Matt Adams, Molina and Brock Petersen there to shore up the tide and get as much production out of it.  His Martinez irritation aside, MM has used the young guns with ease this season.  Where would the team be without the contributions from the rookies?  Seth Maness gets talked about a lot but it’s hard to give his unique ability to escape jams enough credit.  How many 6th-7th inning blunders happen without his double plays?  A TON.  Matheny called for the kid in June and the results have been solid ever since.

This Cards team looks completely different than it did entering spring training and we are 25 games over .500 and in control of a division title.  It would be our first since 2009.  Think of all the injuries.   Chris Carpenter, Rafael Furcal, Jason Motte, Jaime Garcia, Westbrook for 2 stretches as well as Molina for a stretch and now Craig.  Siegrist, Maness, and Rosenthal fully emerging.   Mujica becoming a solid if not flashy closer.  Carpenter entering the talks for MVP.   Jon Jay’s troubling season steering him into play tonight with 65 RBI.  David Freese’s disappointing season still holding the opportunity for redemption.   Carlos Beltran streaky yet steady bat(anytime now Carlos, you have 6 hits in your last 37 at bats with 0 HR).  All the resistance this team has faced in 2013 and we are right there.

Remember the details.  9 games left.  Win every series and it will be hard to remove the Cards from their perch.   153 games into another long, exciting, epic and frustrating season and the Cards are at the top looking down on others while still reaching for more.  Home field advantage isn’t that far away.   The postseason is less than weeks away.  A chance at 12th world championship isn’t far away either.

Cardinals fans, things are starting to get very interesting.   The long walk is over.  Now the sprint begins!

Thanks for staying,

Dan Buffa

@buffa82 on twitter

Arch City Sports/United Cardinal Bloggers/Red Wolf Roll Call Contributor

Film-Addict.com

Pregame Dose On The Cardinals

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Let’s shed some light on a few things heading into tonight’s interleague showdown with the most one legged team in the majors, The Seattle Mariners.  They have Felix Hernandez and….well….other players too.   I kid around a little but you get my drift.  The Mariners are the most non-descriptive team in the AL and join the Padres as the biggest band of misfit toys since Billy Beane bought into moneyball.   Our old friend Brendan Ryan departed this week for the Bronx, leaving this weekend to be a non jersey licking affair.   Excuse me readers.  This is a little Friday madness from my end of cyberspace.  It’s fight weekend in the Buffa house with Canelo Alvarez and Floyd Mayweather Jr. squaring off tomorrow night, so I’m a little amped and loose at the same time.   Let’s look at some pregame notes on the Cardinals.

*Don’t chase down Joe Kelly with pitchforks just yet.   The right hander who was unbeaten in nearly 2 months finally broke down last night and was solved for 4 runs in 5 innings.  The last time he allowed 4 runs came against the Marlins and that was a long time ago.   Kelly’s curve wasn’t as tight as usual, which made his fastball easier to locate.  The Brewers are bad but are not pushovers.  They know their role and stole a game last night that caused the Birds to move into a first place tie with the Pittsburgh Pirates.  Kelly will be good again.   He didn’t help himself with early throwing errors and things basically didn’t go the Cards way last night.  A plain unfortunate if digestible 5-3 loss.

*Speaking of those Pirates, they just won’t die.  After getting swept in a weekend series and moved out of first place, the Bucs swept Texas on the road and took the first game against the Cubs at home last night.   If the Pirates were going to wilt and die, Sunday was the day the grave was set.  Instead, they bounced back and are playing very good baseball.  Things won’t be easy down the stretch for the Cards because the two teams in contention with them will not perish.   There are sixteen games left and the Cards only have 3 against a winning team, but have to sit back and watch the other teams square off 6 times in the final three weeks.  It will be an eventful finish.

*David Freese lost a lot of steam from his weekend revival and had a horrible Brewers series, going 0-8 with 3 strikeouts.   His supposed breakthrough against Pittsburgh was short lived and he is again searching for that big hit and having issues turning on an inside fastball.   He finds himself in the lineup again as the defensively superior and speedy Kolten Wong rides the bench looking for his swing.  Freese isn’t showing me anything new and hasn’t come alive in September.  Take away the two long home runs and a lot of noise rides away with it.  He is hitting .260 in September so far with 6 hits and 8 strikeouts.  Stop saying this is his month.  Story is dead.

*Edward Mujica may be suffering from a few minor injuries but keep in mind he was bound to be hit.  He has sharper stuff than our old friend Ryan Franklin but still pitches to contact and throws that 90-92 mph fastball a lot.  When he gets hit a little, people freak out and forget we didn’t even know this guy had a social security number before July 31st of 2012.   He will still be effective if more hittable down the stretch.  Give him more 2-3 run leads.

*Yadi Molina is back with the team and in the lineup.  The 3 Molina brothers were in town this week as their mother had surgery on her heart.   All things went well and Yadi is back hitting 5th in the lineup tonight.  The splits with Yadi getting a spot in a game and not participating at all are amazingly one sided.   The Cards sharper than any club with Molina in the game and just bad without him in it.   I don’t have the exact stats but let’s just say that this guy is still the team MVP.  Sorry Carp Jr., but Molina is the rock of this squad.   I am pretty sure Matt wouldn’t argue with that conclusion.

*Matt Holliday is turning it on folks.  It is the second half and this is a typically hot time for the left fielder who attracts as many haters as supporters.   Since he makes 17 million per year and not the same salary as Rogers Hornsby, he gets flack when he doesn’t come through or doesn’t show off Edmonds like skills in the outfield.  A man who will prove to be a better bargain than Jayson Werth, Josh Hamilton, Jason Bay and Carl Crawford doesn’t get much love for slowly putting together another solid season.  His numbers are down but not flat.  Holliday hit .320 in August and .308 so far in September but has more RBI than anyone in the game since the end of July.  With 16 games to go, Holliday is hitting .287 with 19 HR and 82 RBI to go with 90 runs scored.  He has 81 K(down from last year) and 59 walks.  His double plays have rapidly decreased in the second half as well.   He is finishing well again and could easily get 22 HR, 95 RBI and hit .290.   I will take that.  Is it 17 million dollars worth?  Not exactly, but it’s not bad either.  I like the fact Holliday saves his best days for last.

*Adam Wainwright has thrown bullpen sessions out of his regimen and basically doing some long toss this month.   Whatever gets the guy into dominant mode is fine with me.  Unconventional methods are practical in the final stages of a 162 game season.  He takes the mound tonight against a team he rarely, if ever, faced.   All bets are off but I expect him to be his usual reliable if dominant self.  After Kelly picked him up for several starts since August 1st, it would be nice to see our ace clean up the wound from last night’s loss.

*The Cards don’t have to be amazing and go 13-3 in their final 16 games.  Think of it like an NFL schedule.  Win 9 and be sure of a spot.  Win 10-11 and win the division.   We just have to stay with the Pirates and hope to push away at the end.  We will make the playoffs either way but I don’t want to see another one game playoff where we may have to use Wainwright in that game and lose him for the start of the NLDS.

What else?   Pete Kozma is good for a few scrap hits but his defense is cracking.   Ryan Jackson makes a mean pasta in the clubhouse I hope because he isn’t getting a shred of playing time.   Why bring him up to sit him on the bench?  I wanted change but not a zombie.   Jake Westbrook is growing a garden in the bullpen.  Lance Lynn earned another start with his impressive performance Wednesday but don’t get too excited until he pitches well in Colorado.  Daniel Descalso is due to heat back up because he has been cold since early July.  Jon Jay isn’t hot or cold right now at the plate but looking sharper than ever in center field and will get the bulk of the playing time down the stretch.  Audrey Perez is plain old catcher insurance.   As in extended insurance.  If Molina can’t go and Tony Cruz and Rob Johnson both get hurt and Descalso can’t do it, Perez will play.  The more I see Kevin Siegrist the more I think he would make a killer 7th inning guy but its hard to dismiss him as a starter with his experience and killer assortment of pitches.  If there is anyway we can trade the problematic Jaime Garcia, The Cards have a steady supply of cheap effective lefthanded starters hungry for a shot.  Siegrist is this year’s Rosenthal.  A white hot phenom.

That’s all I got.  Thanks for taking this in and come back for more next. Until then, visit my site, doseofbuffa.com for a more versatile set of news.

-D.L.B.

(Image provided by stlcardinalsbaseball.com)

Cards Need to Maintain Focus

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I would love to sit here and pour sweet kettle corn over the Cardinals.  There are times in a baseball season where restraint is required and this is one of them.   The Cards swept the Pittsburgh Pirates over the weekend.  It was great, energized Cardinal Nation and reminded us what the team can do when firing on ALL cylinders.  Things went right this weekend.  Will they continue that way?  There is no telling what will happen tonight but first, let’s look back the glorious weekend that took place at Busch Stadium downtown.

Their starting pitching was stellar, allowing a run in 20 innings.  Joe Kelly was his usual solid self.  Adam Wainwright returned to ace form with a dominating 7 innings on Saturday.  However, the biggest surprise came from rookie Michael Wacha on Sunday as he brought out the brooms in shutting out the Pirates for 7 innings.  The rookie hasn’t allowed a run in 2 starts against the two teams who are currently engaged in a dogfight with his ballclub.

Wacha was filthy on Sunday.  He made veterans like Andrew McCutchen shake his head after striking out.   The Pirates couldn’t do anything with the kid’s overhand delivery.   When he went into his windup, The Bucs saw a 97 mph sledgehammer coming towards them and couldn’t put a clean swing on the ball.   They hit some balls hard and well but everything found a defensive glove.   Wacha doesn’t completely fool hitters but he throws them off with his unfiltered delivery and ability to go from the 97 mph gas to the 80 mph breaking ball.   Like I said, he is downright dirty good on a mound.

The entire team played with a confident flair that has been missing for a long time.  They didn’t score over 10 runs in all three games and demolish the Pirates.  They simply dominated every night and didn’t allow them to breathe for too long.   We got the lead first and kept it due to solid starting, an engaged offense and a tiring if effective bullpen.  This wasn’t the deflated Cards who could only muster single game victories in Pittsburgh or require extra innings and a Starlin Marte drop to win a series at home.  The Cards came into the series down 1.5 games and left it ahead in the division by the same margin.   We flipped the switch.  The question is, can we keep it that way?  Can the Cardinals sustain this loving feeling or will they wilt sooner rather than later?  This 2013 team has shown the ability to pull a 360 from game to game.   They score a dramatic victory and then get beat handily the next day.  How do we react to this epic sweep?

Can David Freese and Pete Kozma continue their sudden September resurgence?  They collected hits over the weekend series that have been missing for months.   Freese got around on inside fastballs.  Kozma didn’t strike out once and drove in 3 runners.  Pete felt a boulder drop off his shoulders on Sunday when he laced an RBI double into left center and didn’t see 1,001 tweets announce him as the most wanted man in Cardinal nation.  Will it last?  If these two lost causes can produce more, the loss of RBI machine Allen Craig won’t feel like an atomic bomb was dropped on Busch Stadium this month.

Waino fixed his tell that allowed The Reds to unload on him.   It felt righteous out there on Saturday as he tossed curves at a deep lineup and saw bodies become anatomical pretzels and minds rewired.   There had to be a reason he was so bad last week.   The team’s standing general, Chris Carpenter, spotted a tell and informed Waino about it.  The ace fixed his methods and got back to collecting zeroes from other teams.

Matt Carpenter deserves consideration for not just the MVP of the Cards but the entire National League.   Carp is a classic talent and as versatile as any.   He has 48 doubles, over 175 hits, 56 multi-hit games, and an on base percentage that makes him highly valuable.   There is no crack in his armor.  He had a rough July but bounced back in August.  He is a long term star for this team.  Home grown.

Remember, stay cautious.   Don’t take this series for an extended celebration.  Drop the date off, kiss it and move on.   There are 19 games left against mostly feeble teams but the division is far from won.   The Cards need to be consistent now that the majority of their games come at Busch and against the Brewers, Mariners, and Cubs.   The only team that can hurt the Cards are themselves.  If we end up in the wildcard game, it was by our own hand.   That game isn’t desirable.  If we get the Pirates, it comes at Pittsburgh.   If it is the Reds, we get them at Busch.   Let’s do this.  Avoid that scenario by winning at least 10 of the remaining 19 games and staying strong.

The 2011 and 2012 teams didn’t slow down until they were finished or simply outplayed.  The 2013 team has enough talent to make it to the World Series because unlike other teams requiring trades and waiver deals to beef up their rosters, the Cards turned to doors within their own organization.  We have guys like Wacha, Carlos Martinez and Tyler Lyons to fix the leak in any rotation problem.  We have Matt Adams to replace Craig.  We have September heroes who are starting to put on their ass kicking boots.

Can the rotation stay up?  What will Lance Lynn do on Wednesday?   What will Shelby Miller do when his innings load increases by 12-18 more innings?  Will Martinez ever get his leash taken off?  The baby oil hasn’t left Baby Carlos yet and it could be an issue if further deficiencies occur.  Mike Matheny is starting to understand what his young guns can do.  He stood by Lynn to give him one more try while general manager John Mozelaik compared the mentally cloudy righthander to Jack Nicholson from One Flew Over The Cuckoo’s Nest.  Matheny has to be strict and reactive.

The fan base must be patient and smart.  Don’t get too worked up over 3 wins in a row and don’t freak out if the Brewers and Mariners find a way to beat us this week.   Keep watching.  Keep supporting.   Keep your head up and intact.   The baseball season is entering that final push to the playoffs.   It’s grind time.  Can the Cards maintain the heat?

For more of my thoughts, go to my website, doseofbuffa.com.  Until next time, thanks for reading.

-D. Buffa

The Curious Cases of Joe Kelly and Adam Wainwright

The narrative is messed up here.  At this time of the season for the Redbirds, the starter all would vote on in April to be carrying the team at this time is a man named Adam Wainwright.  He’s big, strong, dominating and recklessly brilliant on the mound.   He’s no-bullshit on the mound.  He’s fiercely confident and clears out the noise.   Off the mound, he’s funny, likes to dance, gets Jake Westbrook to move those old Indiana Jones hips, and claims to be an expert on barbecue.   Waino is the perfect baseball cover boy.  He goes against smoking, participates in charity, raises money through fantasy football and adheres himself to all crowds.

So why is this narrative impaired and crooked at the moment?  Joe Kelly, the unwanted man in May and someone who only found his way when Chris “General” Carpenter finally shut down his rehab mission.   Joe Kelly, the computer nerd who has a wickedly sharp sense of humor and a suspiciously sneaky high octane fastball to go with a deadly changeup.  Kelly, the unlikely hero from last year who mopped up Lance Lynn’s mess and politely went to the bullpen in September of 2012 when Lynn returned for his salvation.   Joe Kelly is the ace of this rotation during this maddening stretch run.   He doesn’t just beat teams.  He beats good teams.  He doesn’t just win games.  He wins important games.  He stops losing streaks and makes opposing teams scratch their heads.  They put runners on base against Joe, load the guns and fire blanks as Kelly escapes the inning with a strikeout.   Kelly is the unlikely hero of this rotation right now and without his 8 wins the team would be behind the Reds and sitting in a disappointing lake of crimson.  Kelly is amazing and a great story because in three months when trade talks bloom and the 2014 rotation starts to take shape, Kelly may find himself on the outside again.   Just wait.  Deep playoff run or not, Kelly will have to fight his way into next year’s rotation.   He was put up against Shelby Miller this past spring and didn’t lose via his pitching stats.   He lost before he threw a pitch.   Carpenter and Jaime Garcia bit the grass and Kelly couldn’t find his way into the rotation.   As Bernie Miklasz put it, he was the Porsche parked in the garage that only went on drives on night for no reason.

In April and May, Kelly threw 18.2 innings combined.  In June, he made 2 spot starts and pitched 5.1 innings in mop up duty for Shelby Miller in Oakland.   In July, he made threw starts due to the break and the need for Matheny to keep his arm sheltered when he wasn’t starting.  He won a game and got beat up by Miami and finished with an ERA of 2.55 for the month.   In August, Kelly didn’t leave any question and quickly made a statement.   On August 1st, with the Cards looking at a 5 game sweep, Kelly pitched 6.1 innings and beat the Pirates.  The rest has been laid out but let me give you the footnotes.   He didn’t beat scrubs in this stretch.   He beat the Dodgers, Reds, Braves and shut down the Pirates with victories in 3 games.   Let me repeat that.  Against a team that has driven the rest of the Cards rotation mad for the past month, Kelly has defeated 3 times since the beginning of August.   In back to back starts in September, Kelly has beaten the Bucs twice, pitched 12 innings, allowed 2 runs, struck out 9, walked 5 and threw 209 pitches.    Pittsburgh doesn’t like Joe Kelly.

Wainwright, the other side of the scale, troubled and misguided at the moment, will lean on his well earned pedigree and try to silence the critics and pitch well tonight.    As a fan, you will find out quick if Waino has it or not.  He gets hit hard early if he is off.  His curve will spin outside.  His cutter will be as straight as a Salas fastball.   He will look mean and fierce, but his pitches will be launched.  And trust me that the Pirates will be studying tape on Waino, going over his last two starts and finding out what the Reds are doing to the ace.  Waino’s problem is simple.  Pitch execution.  As a man who taught younger pitchers how to not tip their pitches and is under the watchful eye of Carpenter, I refuse to believe Waino is tipping.   It’s a tired arm issue.   It’s a poor execution against great hitters dilemma.  Waino has to be better because this Pirates lineup is stacked.   Why can’t he do something that Kelly has done 3 times in a month?  My friends, that is the greatness of baseball.   Little men rise up and surprise and older vets can fall as well.   Bad things happen to good pitches in a 162 game season.  The greatness of this game lies in its stiffening endurance.   I believe Waino will survive.  I believe he will find something tonight, react, pitch well and give us a chance to win the game.   This unlikely position Waino and Kelly are in isn’t bad for business.  It’s a realization that Kelly is a greater pitcher than most give him credit for.  The sabermetrics crowd are fooled by his work but the one thing that can’t be measured on Brooks Baseball and Fangraphs is how a pitcher reacts mentally in a tough situation.   With men on base and the stakes high, Kelly does his best pitching.   He likes to light the fires and get the room burning, but he is really good with a hose.  Look at the first inning last night.  Bases loaded, two out, Cardinal Killer Pedro Alvarez at the plate looking to do serious damage.   Kelly buckles down, makes a good pitch and gets a groundout.  Inning over.  Cards score 5 unanswered runs before running off with the game.  If Kelly gets solved there, the rest of the night could have been different.  This game is more temperamental and emotional that we want to give it credit for.   One moment can decide a game sometimes.   I don’t believe that was the case last night but Kelly always gives the offense a chance.   He has been the Most Unlikely Valuable Player of the second half.   The MUVP!  New award.

A Few Random Notes on the Team before I shove off for some movie work-

*The loss of Allen Craig is potentially hazardous to an enigmatic offense.   It does provide Matt Adams with an opportunity to play every day but the 2013 Big City everyday menu comes down to a strikeout or a home run with singles mixed in.   Losing Craig is bad news, even if it is for 2-3 weeks.    He has 97 RBI and hits .452 with runners in scoring position.   He can play RF and 1B respectfully and is a hit machine.   You can’t make hitters as clutch as Craig.   He is a destroyer who is on the bench and the updates on his injury are scary.  It’s not a fracture but it could be awhile before he comes back.  Well, stab me in the stomach already.   Craig’s right foot is still swollen from a weird turn at first base on Wednesday and he is in a walking boot.   Those two things have to disappear and then Craig can take swings and try to come back.   It’s going to be painful.   The injury was to his right foot, his planting foot which gives him his power.  It’s a good thing he can reach out and poke 2 run singles to left and right but still scary thinking how long he can play with it.  What is his pain tolerance and how effective can he be?  Part of me wants him to get as healthy as possible before returning.  Pinch hit duty at first.  This is where the DH comes into play in the AL.  Players nursing leg/foot injuries.   Craig’s role down the stretch is as important as any other issue with this team.

*Matt Carpenter makes a strong case for the MVP of this team in 2013.   Sorry Yadi Molina.  You are the best and deep down arguably the MVP but Carp Jr. challenges the theory.  He provided us with a legit leadoff hitter.  He plays multiple positions that range from 2B to the outfield.   He has 172 hits and 109 runs scored on September 7th.   He has collected over 60 multi-hit games and has 47 doubles and 7 triples.   His on base percentage is .385 so pitchers really hate him.  His batting average has been a steady .315-.325 all season long.   He also has driven in 68 runners and has 10 home runs.   The guy has been a deal breaker all year.   He gets on base for Craig and others to drive him in and made a smooth transition to 2nd base.  He’s pretty great and still young and cheap.

*That Edward Mujica guy is 36-39 in save opportunities.   Not bad for a guy who game over in a trade from Miami and created more puzzlement than excitement.  I feel good for Eddie and hope he gets paid well in the coming years for his newfound ability.  I don’t think he will ever be as good as he has been this season though.

*I really hate the warning game that the Umpires play when a batter is hit in a blow out game.   Molina got knocked down last night which prompted the ump to warn the pitcher.  John Axford enters the game, hits a batter and gets tossed.  It changes the game because no one can pitch inside and be effective.  It’s a handicap.   It’s stupid and unneeded most of the time.  Why do it unless you know for sure the pitch was thrown on purpose.  I do applaud Axford for getting his two cents in before leaving.

*David Freese isn’t getting any better folks.  Consider this my latest update that the former All Star is slipping.  His defense is cracking and his bat is weak.   He launched a 420 foot home run in Cincinnati on Thursday but hasn’t done much else this week.  He’s hitting .214 in his last 10 games.  He’s struck out 89 times this year.  He is slugging .377.   His power numbers are worse than Jon Jay.   Kolten Wong’s bat needs seasoning and at bats which means in my eyes Freese is seeing less playing time down the stretch.  Let his previously clutch bat come off the bench.  Sad but true.

*Lance Lynn and Jake Westbrook can politely leave the team now.  Lynn has a 4.56 ERA since the start of July and has thrown 5 horrible starts in a row.   He is a child on the mound, will NOT improve and can only cost this team wins.  Mozelaik didn’t admit point blank but defined insanity when talking about Lynn getting the start against Milwaukee next week.  For me, that’s the final straw.  Facing a bad team at home, if he falters, cut his check and kick him out to the bullpen.    Westbrook came back last night and allowed 3 earned runs in 1.1 innings of work.  Save me the bad luck talk and oddly placed ground balls.   Westbrook is garbage and ugly to watch.   He isn’t a good bullpen arm and will only get ripped apart in the rotation.   September is the time to cut fat from your lean team and Lynn and Westbrook are the overcooked fatty ribs at the barbecue.   Insert Tyler Lyons and Carlos Martinez into their roles immediately and tell me good things won’t happen.   Sticking with Lynn and Jake is like saying it’s okay to carry dynamite through a burning building.

*I agree that bench is weak and the Craig injury makes it look even weaker.  With Adams off the bench, you have Brock Petersen, Adron Chambers, Ryan Jackson, Aubrey Perez and Shane Robinson.   A few more sure but no real threats.   I find it hard to believe Mozelaik couldn’t have found some bench support in August to create depth just in case Beltran’s back acted up, Molina’s knee broke down again or Craig suffered another weird injury(remember him crashing into the fence in RF in Houston in 2011).   There isn’t a lot of depth on the bench.

I think I’ve worn out my welcome here.   2,000 words on the rogues in red.   Thanks for reading and Go Cards!

-Dan Buffa

@buffa82 on twitter

United Cardinal Bloggers

Arch City Sports

http://www.doseofbuffa.com

September, Cardinals and Darwinism

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Every baseball team goes through a pressure cooker during a season and finds themselves resorting back to their original strengths.   The evolution of a 162 game season shares its own blend of rewards and risks for any given team.   When I think of a team in September, I think of Charles Darwin’s theory of natural selection.   Over 30 teams play competitive baseball for the first 5 months before September arrives and an outline takes shape.   By no means is a stone pencil used to craft a playoff schedule, but as September rolls around the weak are shoved to the side and the strongest carry on.   Sometimes, the best team with shiniest resume on paper falls off to the side while other slightly weaker teams overachieve and blend together for great baseball.   Every September carries a different trait for each team and for the St. Louis Cardinals the past few seasons it’s all about survival.   Staying alive long enough to win the opportunity to play meaningful October baseball.   5 months of climbing and you jump off the ladder into a coliseum where other teams fight for their spot.  Darwin’s idea was the strongest will survive and that applies directly to baseball because the season is long, the fights are many and the endurance is key.   What happens to the Cardinals this month?  Do we fall to the side while a weaker injury deprived team like the Reds runs past?  Do the jump start Pirates, full of waiver wire moves and added power, throw us to the ground?   Or do we rise up, smack them down and remind the teams of their place in The NL Central.   The Cards are gunning for a division title, something they haven’t won in 4 years.  They have been wild card bunnies for their two miraculous runs in 2011 and 2012.  They have done things the hardest way possible and made their fans sweat.   What route do they take in 2013?  The wild card format is trickier because getting a spot there doesn’t ensure a series.  You have to hope and pray all the baseball gods are aligned in your favor and support you  in ONE GAME.   Remember the Atlanta game a year ago?  The Kozma Infield Fly drop, the Medlen start, the Braves near comeback which was cut short by a Motte heater settled in the stomach like a great bowl of chili.  I would prefer to not go through that again.  The Cardinals are good enough to win the division and I am going to present and answer 6 questions.   I’ve debated how I could write this playoff bound run launching pad blog for 2 days now and decided to throw popular questions to the walls and have my opinion swat them away.  Let’s go.

What is wrong with the big and strong Adam Wainwright?  

For the first time in years, I threw my head into sabermetrics and looked for reasons that could describe the second half of Adam Wainwright’s season.   He is a big and strong(Waino’s words and he is right) pitcher who three weeks ago was putting together a Cy Young caliber season but suddenly hit a rut.   His pitches seemed to be more hittable.  His curve or spun out of the zone.  His cutter didn’t do much cutting at all.   His sinker was smash appropriate.   His changeup wasn’t effective.   Take away his heroic start against Atlanta where he threw 128 pitches and a complete game and much of August and part of July is troubling for the ace of our staff.   People react so indifferently to an attack on Waino.   It’s like we should shake off his consistently trivial outings and carry on like nothing is happening to the most important pitcher on our staff.   It’s worth an investigation if you truly care and want to see if this is second half exhaustion, a tipping pitches case or general failure to get outs.   Let’s take a look.

First, the more general look at his basic stats.   His last 10 starts give a lot of answers.   When Waino was attacked by the Reds at Busch last week, I thought back to the last time he was hit so hard and so early at home and it came on July 14th against the Cubs where he gave up 4 first inning runs before recovering and pitching 6 innings.  Including that start, since the All Star Break, Wainwright is 3-4 with a 4.91 ERA.  He has walked 15 batters in his last 10 starts.   He walked a total of 14 in his first 19 starts.  He has allowed 4 earned runs or more in 4 of those starts.  He hasn’t pitched horrible in every outing.  He pitched good enough to win in Atlanta and at home against the Dodgers.   He was rocked by Pittsburgh in that horrible series a month ago.  He avenged the losses to CHI and ATL in back to back starts at Wrigley on 8/18 and at home on 8/23.   Then came the Reds starts.   In his last two outings spanning 8 innings, Waino was been hammered for 15 runs, 17 hits, 4 BB and only 5 K.   In every start since the break but the 7/14 outing against the Cubs, Waino had struck out 5 or more batters.  This past week, he isn’t getting strikeouts and when he does they come after the majority of the runs have scored and the opposing lineup is more relaxed.  Waino is giving up more home runs in the second half.  After allowing only 4 HR in the first three months of the season, Waino has allowed 9 in the past 2 months.  His ERA for the month of August alone was 4.78, helped by the 9 earned runs to the Reds last Wednesday.   It’s easy to say Waino hasn’t been the same pitcher he was in the first half and his ability to get back to that form or not may determine if this team can stand tall at the end of the season.  Okay, here’s a deeper breakdown of Waino’s pitches.

Via the elaborate and detailed site Brooks Baseball, Waino is getting torched by lefthanded batters since July 14th as well.   His Whiff percentage is way down and his line drive rate is up.    His curve is still effective against righthanded hitters but the lefties are starting time it bash it.  The swing and miss rate on his curve is down in the past 2 months.   Looking at the batting average against his individual pitches, the curve is still his best pitch with a .219 average.   The cutter has been raked for 5 home runs in his last 10 starts and his sinker is allowing a .350 average.  His four seam fastball isn’t getting torn up but has allowed 5 walks.   His changeup produces hits when its put in play.   Once hitters put the ball in play, the average jumps up for the curveball.  Waino has 32 K’s from his curve but once its put into play or hung, it usually produces a hit with a .375 average.

Conclusion-Whether it’s the pitch counts or general fatigue, decent lefthanded hitters are timing Waino’s secondary pitches, jumping on his first pitch fast ball or waiting for a hanging curve and doing damage.  Overall, he is getting figured out more often than not.  Does this go away with more video or prep?  No.   Waino will have to get out on that mound and be more effective.   He is a professional and a rotation ace.  He is a Cy Young caliber pitcher who is still 15-9 with a 3.14 ERA(jumped from 2.68 in past two starts) with an outstanding K/BB of 182-29 and a WHIP of 1.09.  However, are the 5 complete games coming back to haunt out pitcher?   Lot of pitches for an arm to throw and we all know Waino’s intensity is off the charts in any start.  Yesterday, you could see a Carpenter like menace on the mound and on the base paths.   He is furious and should be.   Does he need to skip a start?  Yes and no.   He starts against the Pirates on Saturday at home.  This is a game which will hold some answers.   The past two starts can be chalked up as the Reds having Carp’s number.  The sandbox of Great American Ballpark fools many hitters.   At home, in the confines of Busch against a newly empowered Pirates lineup, the tests will come hard and fast for Waino.   Next week, he faces the Seattle Mariners at home, a severely weak hitting team that will show if Waino’s struggles are fully grown or only come against superior hitting.  If Brendan Ryan takes our ace deep, it’s time to panic.  Until then, hold up and relax.  Waino is getting beaten up as our most of the Cardinals starters in the past month.  Stay the course and keep an eye on him but don’t deem him dead armed just yet.  The Friday start against Atlanta can’t be forgotten, even if it came against a team without two of its best hitters.   Waino needs a game to settle the score for himself and at home on Saturday could be it.   Next question…(promise with less words)

Is Matt Holliday finally turning it on?

Yes sir.  This isn’t unusual.  Holliday is a strong finisher and always rakes in the last two months of the season.  Slowly but surely, his stats are climbing.  In his last 10 games, Holliday’s white hot bat has slightly cooled but still saw his BA climb from .284 to .287.   He has 18 HR and 74 RBI and his on base percentage is a robust .368.   He also hits very well against the Reds and Pirates, which is great because there are six games left against them this month.   Holliday isn’t having a great season but with 25 games left in the season(yes that’s all folks) he has a chance to at least hit .300, hit 25 HR, and drive in 90-95 runners.   We may call it a down year in the end but as long as he gets hits when we need it and has a great postseason, Holliday’s regular season stats can be taken with a grain of salt.  Unlike most high paid players, Holliday’s actually hustles too.  Small bonus point.   One thing I have noticed lately is Holliday’s double plays have went down in the past 2 weeks.

How much longer can Matheny stay with Lance Lynn?  

Not much longer with newly arrived Memphis hands like Tyler Lyons and Carlos Martinez arriving today.   Lynn has been torched himself for a 4.57 second half earned run average and he had a terrible August.  In his 10 starts, dating back to July 13th, Lynn is 2-6 with a 5.46 ERA and given up 69 hits in just over 59 innings.    He has walked 25 batters to 45 strikeouts over that time period.   His ERA has jumped to 4.29.  He hasn’t been given much run support the past 3 starts which may be revealing his Achilles heel.  A pitcher who has gotten an average of 6.1 runs per start all season shouldn’t have a 4.29 ERA.  Lynn’s worse trait is his two cent heat.  He comes undone easily in innings and recently, his bad starts are defined by one horrible inning.  In a nutshell, Lynn is amazing in April and May but the wheels start to get loose in June and they come off in August.  Two years in a row.  Lynn has 13 wins but a lot of those victories are supported by a big offense.  Remember the game in Miami where a horrible Marlins team tore him up for 6 runs but he got the win because we scored 13 runs.  Lynn can put together a great start, like he did on August 4th against Cincinnati where he pitched 8 innings, struck out 11, walked 2 and only allowed 2 runs on 4 hits.   He strikes out a lot of hitters with that four seam fastball but he gets burned when he doesn’t trust his secondary pitches.  His pitching motion and mechanics can uncork themselves in an inning if things go wrong.  He is talented but mentally short circuited like fellow Cardinal Jaime Garcia.   This can’t be taught or fixed by anyone other than Lynn.  Chris Carpenter can put Lynn through angry pitcher boot camp and still do little to help.  In my eyes, Lynn is trade bait because he has a shiny record covered up by a huge win total but when examined further reveals cracks in his facade.   If you want a first half chief, go for Lance.  As a 32 start pitcher, he is only a decent 3rd or 4th starter.  If he erupts in Cincinnati this week(remember the great outing a month ago), Mike Matheny has to think about plugging in Lyons or Martinez.   Sure, we didn’t envision winning the division without Carpenter, Garcia, Lynn and Westbrook not in the rotation but in 2002 we used 14 starters and went to the NLCS.  Go with the fresh arm and the better choice.  Speaking of moves made for the right reasons, how about Joe Kelly?

Will Joe Kelly be broken?

Looking at his sabermetrics(which I don’t have to present), a man can be perplexed by his greatness.  In 10 starts since July 6th, Kelly is 7-0 with a 2.16 ERA.  He has walked 25 batters in those 10 starts with only 34 strikeouts.   He rarely produces more than 6 innings per start.   He has allowed 53 hits in 58 innings in those 10 starts.   However, Kelly’s genius lies in his ability to pitch out of jams.   When runners get on base and things get murky, Kelly buckles down.  Like Allen Craig with runners in scoring position, Kelly gets deadly the noisiest moments and saves his best pitches for the toughest spots.   You can’t teach that.  Without Kelly, the Cards would obviously be short 7 wins but more importantly, a lot of losing streaks would have continued.   Kelly stopped another one on Sunday at Pittsburgh.  He threw 6 innings and shut down the Pirates after they decimated Shelby Miller and Lynn on Friday and Saturday.  Facing the same lineup, and getting a few good bounces, Kelly shut down the Bucs and salvaged a win and helped the Cards survive.  That is what Kelly does.  He is that cold can of Budweiser Select that gives you the perfect feeling after a long day.  Sure, it’s not as tasty as a honey wheat or thick stout but it quenches your needs and delivers the goods as expected.  Joe Kelly is the second half MVP and the only way that is possible is if his manager finally decides to throw him the keys to a spot in the rotation.   I don’t see Kelly breaking down because he knows how to pitch and get key outs.  He won’t make it look pretty but I expect Kelly to continue to pitch well because of his strong mental makeup.

Who am I most excited about out of the September callups?  

I want to see what Carlos Martinez can do but feel like he has been short circuited in a way with his up and down status all year long.  Martinez has a great talent but hasn’t been given the opportunity to get comfortable.   Lyons, Brock Petersen and Keith Butler will all provide a boost and Kolten Wong is an exciting guy once he gets more at bats but the guy I want to see play is Ryan Jackson at shortstop.   I didn’t think I’d be saying that name in the same sentence as “most excited” but with the need for a boost from the SS position at the moment, Jackson is the guy.   I assumed Oscar Taveras would consume all the excitement but he recovering from ankle surgery.   Say what you want about Jackson’s quick 2012 appearance but he deserves the opportunity to turn the #8 spot in the Cards order into an interesting at bat.   His defense is solid and his bat can only be better than the bench deprived Pete Kozma.   RJ deserves a full audition to see if he can spark this lineup that sputters with Kozma in the lineup.   Pete is as automatic of an out as the pitcher in the past month so its important to find a better player to pair up with Daniel Descalso.   Do you DFA Kozma?  I don’t think so and have definite proof that Matheny wouldn’t pull that trigger but a change is needed.  You can’t go into a September push with that weak of a hitter in your lineup.  Especially if you have a RF in Beltran with a weak back and Yadi with a weak knee.   I would like to see Greg Garcia get rewarded for his strong Memphis season and he can also play shortstop.   I want a solution at SS soon.

Who is the unsung hero the 2013 season?  

Seth Maness, Matt Carpenter, Allen Craig, Edward Mujica and Kelly don’t count.  Why?  They aren’t “unsung” heroes.  Writers, bloggers, fans, and the media have done quite a bit of singing about them.   For example, read my above section on Kelly and the 9,000 other blogs on the other 4 redbirds.  They are great but the man I am looking right now is Shane Robinson.  A utility outfielder who was never more than a pinch runner or 5th outfielder on previous Cardinal teams but this year has taken his game up a notch.   His defense in the outfield is very good.  He goes back on balls well and has good range.  He has a decent arm that doesn’t make stupid throws to home plate that involve 6 bounces(hello Jon Jay).  Robinson has been stronger at the plate as well, hitting .282.   He only has 103 at bats but that just goes to show you how effective is when called upon.  It’s not easy sitting on the bench and suddenly being called upon to contribute.  Robinson hit .252 last year with 166 at bats.   His average is up this year and his on base percentage is .398.   He has 22 walks to only 13 strikeouts.  He knows how to work a count.   He is the unlikely strong candidate to get that spot start in CF or RF and produce with it.   Descalso is a unsung hero candidate to a certain degree but plenty of people appreciate his production and versatility.   Robinson doesn’t get enough credit for his utility work especially because it’s more sparse than DD.

That’s all I got.  I could spend time telling you David Freese needs to get less starts at 3B because he isn’t getting big hits anymore while hitting .235 in his last 10 starts and his defense is unraveling.   I could tell you Kevin Siegrist is as untouchable as Trevor Rosenthal in trade talks.  I could tell you losing Michael Blazek in the Axford trade isn’t surprising because the cost to do business in 2013 is very high, especially for a Cards team with a stack of MLB ready prospects.  I could tell you to hang tough and keep your head up as the Cards rock our internal structure and raise our blood pressure but you know that.  I could tell you baseball is hard to watch because it’s slow, articulate and stressful but that is what makes it great.   I will say this.   The strongest teams with the will to finish what they started in April are the ones worth being scared of in October.  The Cards are strong.  The question is…are they strong enough?  25 games to go.   6 more against the Reds and Pirates.  Two words.  Go Cards!

Thanks for digesting this latest dose of Buffa and come back next time.

-Dan Buffa

Cards Make A Move for Axford

Instant take on this move is the Cards are taking a chance on a former closer who once saved over 40 games in a row.   The Cardinals know all about the once dynamic right arm of John Axford because a few of those saves came against their team.  Axford was a dominant closer as recently as 2011, where he closed 46 of 48 games in taking over for retired saves leader Trevor Hoffman.   In 2010, he came up and helped an ailing Hoffman and closed 24 of 27.  In 2012, the wheels came off.  He blew 9 saves, walked 39 and gave up 10 home runs in less than 70 innings pitched.   He just couldn’t convert the way he used to.   It got so bad that Axford shaved off his trademark Wyatt Earp like mustache and adopted a new approach to the plate.  It wasn’t sad to see because the Brewers are in our division and are a constant foe.  Axford hasn’t improved much in 2013, losing the closer job and when he got the opportunity to shut the door, he has failed in all six attempts.  After plowing through the NL with 70 saves in 75 appearances in 2010-11, Axford has gone 35-50 in the last two seasons.

Guess what Cardinals fans?  He isn’t being brought here to close games or even pitch in high leverage situations.  He’s just another arm who can pitch.  This is John Mozelaik taking a bird with a broken wing off the scrap yard who is still young and durable and giving the tormented pitcher the greatest gift of all time.  Yadi Molina.   The catcher who has turned average aging arms and young raw rookie guns into seasoned vets in less than 5 months.  Mike Matheny and Molina knows how to handle troubled pitchers and will implement Axford into pitching coach Derek Lilloquist’s system.  This is a low liability move for the Cards with a potential upside.  The Cards will pay a little of Axford’s 5 million dollar contract and he is arbitration eligible next season which means the Cards don’t have to bring him back.  This is a good stretch for Mo and the team to make on a guy who was brilliant and confounded hitters only 2 seasons ago.  One wonders if the Brewers collapse in the 2011 postseason, which involved an Axford blown save, affected the right hander at all.

It’s easy to dismiss this deal and cry out for a bigger move.  There are parts of me that want the Cards to at least look at Dan Haren or Kyle Lohse.  However, let’s not doubt Mozelaik’s ability to pull dull diamonds from the woods and turn them into shiny clean cut jewels.   Remember last July when we made a deal for a nobody reliever called Edward Mujica and thought we were dumb to let go of Zach Cox.  Well, Mujica was a dynamic 7th inning bridge and this year has turned into the NL’s second best closer(yes, better than Chapman).  Cox is washing out in Double A for the Marlins.  Axford has a more credible resume than Mujica as he arrives in Pittsburgh today.  He has 106 saves in 4 seasons of work.  He was once a great reliever.  If there is anybody who can find that greatness again, it’s Molina, Lilloquist and Matheny.

Hopefully this means the Fernando Salas era has reached its conclusion.  The ineffective RH can’t seem to pitch an inning without allowing a run and save me his Memphis stats.  Those are minor league hitters and games that mean very little.  All that matters is what he does up here.  He has been crap for a long time.  He isn’t what he once was in 2009.  His fastball is flat and hittable.  His sinker doesn’t do much sinking.   Let’s call it a fair swap of RH talent here.  Axford in and Salas out.  This probably won’t happen but the best thing the Cards can do for Salas is designate him for assignment.

In other news-

*Michael Wacha going to Springfield and not Memphis means he is in line for a Tuesday start in Cincinnati.   Springfield ends play earlier and Wacha will be turned loose.   Tyler Lyons and Carlos Martinez are also candidates but in my mind they both lack the wow factor that we have seen from Wacha’s pitches lately.   The college star deserves a chance to earn that fifth spot because this rotation can use a little lightning.   As much as we don’t want to factor in Adam Wainwright’s season long pitch counts into the equation of the other night’s collapse, we have to be honest and say Waino has been a bit inconsistent in the second half of the season.   The rotation could use more insurance.

*The bigger issue with Wednesday’s 10-0 ass kicking may stem not from the lack of Yadi Molina in the lineup but the missing presence of talented backup Tony Cruz.  Cruz has caught Waino plenty of times and is a better hitter and defensive catcher than Rob Johnson.   The Memphis veteran isn’t a good player.  He can’t hit and his defense is average as best.  The wild pitch that skipped back to the brick the other night would have been smothered by Molina or Cruz and it led to a bigger inning.  Johnson’s ineffectiveness really makes me wonder what Mozelaik didn’t like about John Buck(recently dealt to the Pirates) or another catcher like Kelly Shoppach.  Both of those guys aren’t gold glove catchers or big monster hitters but they are each better than Johnson.  Once Cruz went down, it was time for Mo to find a catcher.  That’s a fact.  The bad thing is it can’t be done now.  The waiver deal expired two days ago.  We can only hope Cruz’s hairline fracture improves and Yadi’s knee doesn’t implode.

*Pete Kozma update.  3-44 in the month of August and rumor has it that his hair is falling out.  The mullet is going down.  His psycho analysis is edging closer to the breaking point.  I feel like Pete is that poor kid in the classroom that the teacher keeps calling on for answers knowing Pete doesn’t have a clue.  Maybe he is the player to be named later in the Axford deal.

*Really hoping Kolten Wong isn’t banished to the bench simply because David Freese had a couple of RBI hits.  Wong is still a threat with his speed and solid defense and in my belief, will hit with more at bats.

*Do we need Dan Haren?  He could boost the rotation but he isn’t required for us to win the division.   Playoffs could be a different story, especially if hitters figure out Joe Kelly with runners on base.  Haren would cost some prospects but offers experience, a hot hand and a guy you can count on in the playoffs.  Do we need Haren?  Does your car need a spare tire on the highway???  It wouldn’t hurt but isn’t a huge important factor right now.  The rotation has shown an ability to bend but not break.  Can we count on them holding it together for the next month and onward?  That’s a dicey question.

The Cards begin the night a game ahead of the Pirates in first place and have the next 9 games against the Reds and Pitt.   This isn’t the season but will definitely tell us which direction we are facing for the final three weeks.   Division crown or wild card probable.  Ask this blogger and I’d rather not deal with a one game playoff again.   The Cards are good enough to win the division.  After that, it’s too hard to tell.  Depends on their play going into the postseason, but even then, the crapshoot begins.  We went into the playoffs playing horrible in 2006 and won it all.  We played fantastic baseball going into the 2011 postseason and won it all.  Same for last year.

Baseball is like life in so many ways.  It’s relative and ongoing.

Thanks for reading,

DLB

The Dark Night at Busch Stadium Is Over

It’s amazing how fast things can go dark at a baseball game.   Less than 24 hours after winning their 5th series in a row, the Cards get blasted for 6 runs in the first inning and everybody steps onto the ledge at Busch and tries to jump off.  So many bandwagon fans get their name because they can’t understand the effect of one game.  The 10-0 loss tonight is one game and its over with.  The Cards are 22 games over .500 and still in first place.  Anyone expecting the Reds to roll over, play dead and cough up a sweep doesn’t know that team.  They came out tonight, dominated and did so against our best pitcher.  They made a statement, got back into the race and redefined why baseball is the toughest sport to follow.  Every night, things can change and momentum can be turned over to a different team.  Celebrations last less than 24 hours and one player’s actions can turn a team’s tempo and mood around.

I am talking about Brandon Phillips.  Sure, his pregame antics had the look of a spoiled child firing back venom at a harmless reporter doing his job.   After the first 2 innings, you saw how maybe his words set a fire under the Reds and had them winning this game handily before the Cards took an at bat.  I could be wrong but Phillips is well known for getting under the skin of Cardinals fans and acting as a true nemesis to our team.  Honestly, I like Phillips, think he is a helluva 2B and likes to stir the pot for the love of the game.  His attack on the scribe was uncalled for, but a week from now may be seen in Cincinnati as the breaking point the Reds needed to get out of that ghost mode they seemed to fall into for two days.  Making errors like the Cubs and sleepwalking through important games wasn’t on the agenda for the fiery defending NL Central champs.  They have a chip on their shoulder and want to contend.  Walt Jocketty had to leave St. Louis with a little pep in his step.  Beat our ace in vicious style, get the last word and hop on the bus out of town on a higher note than you were last night.   It’s one game in the standings but for the Reds may have been a jump start.

Adam Wainwright got shelled.  So what?  It happens.    Felix Hernandez gave up 8 runs today.   Waino gave up 9.  He hit the mound and never looked comfortable until he struck out his only two batters of the night with the bases empty and down 9-0.   He lasted 2 innings, didn’t throw 60 pitches and offered no excuses.  He is an ace and knows the drill.  He lost the game before it ever started.   Opposing pitcher Homer Bailey was sharp and took the cushion and turned it into a win.  What I don’t need to see is fans jumping on Waino’s last start as reasoning behind his bad outing.   It is so easy to say, “well, he threw 128 pitches on Friday, so maybe he is just tired and out of energy tonight”.   That’s not a crazy statement but a typical defense.  A more logical approach is noting his command was off, the Reds put together some hits, and jumped on the Ace early.  If the Padres jump you for 9 runs, be a little worried.  If the Reds do it, just accept defeat.  Waino got shelled at home in the first inning by the Cubs in July, giving up 4 in route to a loss.  Tonight was worse by far but teams know the time to get Waino is early if his command is off.  It wasn’t a result of Friday’s performance.  He routinely throws 110-115 pitches per start.  Tonight, his stuff wasn’t good enough and a good hitting team pounced.    Figuring out the mechanisms and recovery of pitchers even in this day and age is a tired task and shouldn’t get much attention.  Take it as it is and roll on.

Michael Wacha made a statement tonight for a start next week by pitching 4 innings and striking out 7, including 2 of Phillips.  Wacha was the fireman tonight, coming in and cooling off the red hot bats of Cincy and telling Cardinal nation how bright the future is with him in it.   Tyler Lyons was solid on Monday but Mike Matheny must take a hard look at Tuesday’s start.  Reds hitters hadn’t seen Wacha yet this year but sure looked fooled by his heat propelled fastball and decent dishes of breaking balls.  In my opinion, if Mo doesn’t want to hit the waiver wire for another starter, Wacha could provide you with impact starts down the stretch or at the very least, give you some action on Tuesday.  Lyons and Carlos Martinez will be here anyway but Wacha deserves a start.  He has looked very good in short and long duty in the bullpen.

The bats were silent.  Regulars were out of the game before the mid point.  Pete Kozma played left field.  Yadi Molina probably got into street clothes after the 7th inning.   David Freese ordered IMOS in the 8th inning.  Pete Kozma played left field.   Matt Holliday was chalking his hands for a workout in the 9th inning.  All of this is comedic speculation(it’s okay to laugh Cardinal nation) but it’s safe to say this was a weird chaotic night at Busch Stadium.  Rough for fans in attendance and easy for the ones sitting at home to turn off or mute.  Sure we were capable of a comeback but it became apparent that wasn’t in the cards(on a roll now).   Baseball gods don’t care what you did last night.  Every game is a challenge, even for the esteemed Cardinal franchise that has dominated at home during the second half.

Cardinals fans think we have to win every night.  Any blowout is just wrong and can’t be handled by 3/4 of the fanbase.   This is what happens when your organization is built on the expectation of excellence.   A night after proclaiming victory of the United Nations on August 27th, get on twitter tonight and you will hear from a heavy majority of the Best Fans in Baseball(not really) that this team in a freefall.   That is not true.  The Cards are fine.  They got beat up and dropped for a knockout.   They will get back up, get on a plane and head to Pittsburgh for another big series.  With a half game separating the division lead, every series is big.  Every game matters.  If you face a fellow contender, the challenge will be stiff.  If you face a bad team, all you have is a spoiler wrecking ball in your path.   Every night will bring no guarantee of a happy ending.   If you want a happy ending, watch An Officer and A Gentleman.  Watch When Harry Met Sally.  Don’t watch baseball too closely because it, and sports as a whole, will break your heart.  That’s part of the experience.

This is why I admire people like my dad who can watch and easily let a bad loss go by doing something else for the rest of the night.   I don’t have to explain in detail that tonight’s game made me grumpy and a slight bore.   My wife made a great homemade pulled pork pizza and I said it was good without further feedback.  She was in a good mood and I was in a flat one.   She talked proudly about our son, who played like a silent heroic ninja 23 month old with his train set for 2 hours, and I felt like going to the basement to do laundry and lose a staring contest with the wall.  When the Cards lose, I let it get personal but I don’t lose sight of logic.

Tonight’s loss was rough but only counts as one.  Adam Wainwright will take the hill again in Cincinnati next week for revenge and this team will let the big dog eat at the plate soon enough.   Mike Matheny will smile in a few days and September will take us into the final painful stretch of games.

I can tell you Fernando Salas doesn’t have to pitch another game in a Cardinals uniform but Matheny has a bond with him like he did with Boggs and will find a way to get him into games.  Remember that piece of corn stuck in your teeth for hours.  That’s Salas.  He threw 2 innings tonight and allowed a home run because what is a Salas appearance without an earned run allowed.  He has no business on this team(words of my fine Cards friend Carlin) but keeps coming back.  When I think of Fernando Salas, I think of the Cards in Game 6 of the 2011 World Series.  He.  Just.  Won’t.  Go.  Away.

What else?  The light will shine tomorrow morning.   Skies will be blue by noon.  The game of baseball will leave one black and blue for it shall always know what is best for you.  Now you see what lopsided losses do to me.

Keep in mind the Pirates play tomorrow and if they win, the series starting on Friday will begin with a tie for first place.   What other way could we have it?  All I can say is the Cards owe the Pirates a beatdown in their own park so Pittsburgh better go pick up its shoe shine box.

This was more of an old fashioned rant than a thoroughly thought out game wrap up.   Exactly what a BLOG is for.  Thanks for reading and enjoy the day free of Cardinals baseball fueled pain tomorrow because it is one of the last idle days of the summer for the Rogues in Red.

Sincerely,

Your United Cardinal Bloggers correspondent,

Dan Buffa

“They never said it was going to be easy.”-Mike Shannon

Read my interview with fellow U.C.B. writer Bill Ivie and other Q & A sessions right here for different representations of Cardinal love.

www.unitedcardinalbloggers.com

 

 

 

Quick Takes on the Cards

As the afternoon burns through my Italian skin and reminds me that STL brings the heat more than any Cardinal reliever in August, I throw out some quick thoughts on my first place team via the bullet.

  • Last night’s win was a clear cut example of this team’s new found dogfight attitude in August.   After going 4 months without a comeback late in a game, the Cards have scored 3 huge miraculous comebacks against their tougher competition in the NL Central.   We got down 4-0 last night and things looked dismal.   Tyler Lyons was pitching well but getting bad luck before you knew it, the game was starting to fade away.  Suddenly, Matt Holliday hits a baseball halfway towards Asia and it’s a one run game.   In the 7th, with the bases and down by a run, Allen Craig stepped to the plate.   This guy thrives with the pleasure on his shoulders.  With RISP, he is hitting .433 or other words destroys pitchers in clutch spots.   He didn’t slap a base hit to score 2 or beat out an infield hit.  He cranked an opposite field first pitch grand slam that sent a jolt through Busch Stadium.  The Cards won 8-6 on the heels of solid bullpen work, Lyons’ recovering from a rough start, Mujica closing it down for save #35 and the lineup’s ability to keep pushing.  The Cards are dominating at home in the second half of the season and that’s a key factor because we play a lot of games at Busch in the last month.
  • I didn’t give Lyons much positive spin for his start because he seemed to be figured out by major league hitters in his last 4 starts.   Last night, he got better as he went and struck out 7 Reds batters.   He fooled Joey Votto twice on a breaking ball that had the MVP twitching back to the dugout.   He limited the damage after the early assault.   In my mind, he hushed a few critics and earned another start.  Michael Wacha and Carlos Martinez are holding down the long inning roles in the pen so the team has options, but Lyons earned another start with his gutsy performance.
  • Let me just say this.  I don’t think Ryan Jackson is the genuine article.   He won’t be a long term option for the team.  He will probably burn out after a certain number of at-bats.  However, if he doesn’t get called up on September 1st and doesn’t get a little playing time, I really want to get an idea of where John Mozelaik’s head is at.   Pete Kozma is exposed folks and while his defense is solid, it’s not gold glove worthy at shortstop and he is an automatic out in the lineup.    Kozma is 3-42 in the month of August with 10 strikeouts.   He has 4 total bases this month.   Kozma is a liability now so more than ever and when you look at a lineup with him in it, the opposing pitcher has two soft spots in the 8-9 positions in our lineup.    Daniel Descalso is fine but his defense(as seen last night in the 1st inning) is average and error prone.  Jackson is noted as having stellar defense and can at least provide a fresh bat in the lineup.  He has earned the right to prove his mettle at this level.   Or we can watch Kozma trip his way towards the Mendoza line.
  • The Pirates made a big move today, acquiring two cheap productive bats in Marlon Byrd and John Buck to bolster their lineup.   Their once weak looking offense is looking mighty bulky and explosive these days.   Byrd was hitting .285 with 21 HR and 70 RBI for the Mets and Buck had 15 HR and 60 RBI at the time of the trade.   The Mets are cutting major pieces after they found out ace pitcher Matt Harvey is out for the season and may require Tommy John surgery.   The Pirates jumped on this whole sale and improved their team.  Will Mo and the Cards react or stand pat?   We do lead the league in a number of offensive categories but can use some help up the middle and on the bench.  With Tony Cruz out for another week or so, finding a backup catcher may have been wise.  Buck would have been a great find but the Bucs beat everybody to him and nabbed Byrd as well.   As the final month of the season gets underway, the Pirates have positioned themselves for the drive.   Will the Reds beef up?  Will the Cards make a move?  Don’t ask Mozelaik because at…the….end…of…the….day……who knows?
  • If David Freese can find a way to explode, our offense isn’t that vulnerable.   If he can hit more and produce on a more consistent basis, the need to replace Kozma weakens a bit.   Freese is an X-Factor.  He was a huge factor when we made those late season pushes in 2011 and 2012.   If he remains stagnant this year, the lineup looks weaker because Kolten Wong isn’t ready for extended duty and doesn’t offer that game changing bat that Freese can when he is on.   We need that 2011 October Freese to step up, knock hits into RF and improve his defense.   If he can heat up, the lineup is stronger than ever.  Without him hitting, our boys look a little weak towards the bottom of the order.  When Freese is down the 7-8-9 spots of himself, Kozma and the pitcher look very easy for a decent opposing pitcher.
  • Carlos Beltran is getting hot again, stroking a double in that pivotal 7th inning last night.  He is hitting .366 in his last 10 games.
  • The Cards have 5 hitters in their everyday lineup hitting .280 or better in Molina, Craig, Carpenter, Beltran and Holliday.
  • I find myself watching Holliday HR over and over again because they are so majestic.   The one he hit last night traveled 442 feet and was simply obliterated off the bat.  Later, in the 7th inning, he drew an important walk that set up Craig’s slam.   A 3-2 pitch right off the outside corner takes guts to let sail by and Holliday did it.  His numbers are slowly perking up.   With his two 3 run bombs in the past week, Matt now has 18 HR, 70 RBI and 85 Runs and 25 doubles.
  • With 31 games remaining after last night, the Cards are in prime position to stay right in the thick of the race.   The next 12 are against the Reds and Pirates with the final 19 coming against sub .500 teams.  Things are working themselves into our advantage to secure a division title if we can split the next 12 games at least.
  • Tonight the Cards face their true 2013 nemesis(not named Francisco Liriano or Mike Minor) in Matt Latos.  He has shut us down twice this year and is 13-4 and easily the Reds strongest starter this year.   Speaking of Liriano, we face him Friday in Pittsburgh.
  • If the Cards win tonight and the Brewers can wreck the Pirates’ part, we could be 2 full games ahead of Pitt and push the Reds 4.5 games back.  These games against Cincinnati are nearly as important as the Pirates showdowns because with every win we push them further into that wild card game one off.   To tell it simple, every game matters.   Baseball is a test of endurance and not streaky skill.   You do the best with the 162 games and get into the playoffs and then go for the gold.   Where will the Cards end up?  Apparently, a lot better than the many Cards fans on twitter who were ready to bury the team on August 10th.  Fans often forget there are so many games in a baseball season.  So much time left to turn things around.  Once again, the Cards did.

That’s all from the pregame desk.   Go Cards!

-Dan Buffa