Category: St. Louis Cardinals

The Elvis Andrus Effect

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ElvisAndrus2

By now, you get it.  The Cards are looking for a long term answer at shortstop that could bolster their lineup and maintain their habit of defensively strengthened infield units. Unless you have been harboring yourself under a rock with Walter White and Breaking Bad’s 6o + episodes, there’s a fair chance you have heard about this.  I am going to tell you why Elvis Andrus is a great fit for the St. Louis Cardinals.

I wrote last week about the idea of Troy Tulowitzki becoming a St. Louis Cardinal.  However, anyone who plays monopoly knows that getting Tulo would put a mighty fine dent in our young player pool and hinge a 7 year, 134 million dollar salary on a team that doesn’t like to carry too much weight on the plane.  That’s exactly why I called it the Idea of Tulowitzki.  People ran at me afterwards thinking I was telling the Cards to do whatever it took to march this man down the Mississippi River immediately.   Offer up a part of the Ballpark Village stock and get him here.   Let him co-sign the Imos name and put him in red.   Trade his mountains for our Arch.  Name a few streets after him, right???….

NO.  I was merely saying it was worth looking into and I would support it.   So let’s move on and let the suits ponder that dreamy proposition.   If you ask me today or even next month who I want the Cards to chase down in a trade this winter, my guy is Elvis Andrus.   The Texas Rangers shortstop is under control until 2022, but he can opt out after 2018 or 2019.    That’s at least five years at a relatively modest salary.   He will make 6.75 million in 2014.  Then he makes 15 million for the next four years.   If he doesn’t opt out, the total cost of his Rangers negotiated extension is 8 years and 120 million.   For a fine shortstop, that’s not a bad price.   Andrus is 4 years younger than Tulo, is not injury prone and comes at a cheaper price.   Andrus is attractive and would work very well in St. Louis for a number of reasons.

Consider the positives.   Andrus would immediately alter the look of the Cards lineup.  He slides in perfectly into the #2 hole and gives you a newfound boost of speed on the bases.   He stole 42 bases in 2013 and has average about 31 in his five year career.   In an offensive down year by many analysts, Andrus still collected 168 hits, scored 91 runs and hit .271 with 67 RBI.  Over his last 5 seasons, per Bernie Miklasz, his 16 wins above replacement trails only Tulo and Hanley Rameriz.   Andrus is a two time all star who is still awaiting his true breakout season.   A young, speedy fine defensive shortstop.   We got a taste of his ability in the 2011 World Series.  Andrus can take over a game.   Imagine him and Wong in this lineup with their speed and base stealing ability.  The Cards offense would change overnight.

What cost?  Texas is looking for a power bat to play first base and hit DH.   Matt Adams is going to fall into this discussion and I would be able to part with him.  Allen Craig is another story.  He would be hard to give up because he is such a proven cost effective run producer.  On one leg, look at what he did in the World Series.   Adams, however, had a great rookie season that saw time off the bench and filling in at first base.  In under 300 at bats, he stroked 17 home runs and collected 51 RBI. He began to get solved by pitching in the playoffs but is very young and also cost effective.   However, you have to give up something sweet in order to get a fine piece of pie.

What else?   Texas are stocked on young pitching but would pull a few known quality arms off our heap.  They may want a reliever/starter type like Kevin Siegrist.  I would part with him.  They could a proven starter like Lance Lynn or Joe Kelly.  They also may want Shelby Miller or Carlos Martinez.    Young lefthanded prospect Marco Gonzales is probably off limits because he is the leftie of the future and someone I am sure Mo would hold onto.   Which one is more expendable out of Carlos and Shelby?

In my eyes, due to his versatility and untouched ability, Carlos Martinez is the one you hold onto tighter.   What if Miller can’t develop a fine secondary pitch?  He was very good in 2013 but hitters started to hit him in September.   He throws a lot of pitches.  The Cards shut him down basically in the playoffs.  Please don’t tell me he was a long reliever because I will laugh at you.   Miller could develop into a Max Scherzer type one day but he needs a couple more pitches to meet that mark.   I don’t want to part with either Miller or Martinez but in my eyes right now, Miller is more expendable.

Texas may want other players.   Look for a package of Adams, Lynn and Siegrist and maybe another prospect.    For a player like Elvis Andrus I would make that trade.  When it comes to losing pitchers, remember the current scouting team of the Cards won’t suddenly just start drafting badly.   John Mozeliak and his team have turned the Cardinals farm system into a well oiled machine that could run for years.  Guys like Gonzales, Lee Stoppelman, Tim Cooney and other young guns will be coming up soon.  Please don’t think the line ends with Wacha and Martinez because I assure you it does not.

Elvis Andrus has the defensive flair that Jed Lowrie does not.   He isn’t as injury prone or expensive as Tulo.   He is a better overall option than J.J. Hardy because he brings a speed element that has been missing from this team for decades.  He hit better on the road than at hitter friendly Rangers Park in Arlington(.293 in 2013).  He hits lefties and righties equally well.  His strongest hitting months in 2013 came in the past 2 months, when he hit .303 and .313 and stole 18 of his 42 bases.  Andrus is cost controlled, young and has his best years still ahead him even though sitting as a two time All Star at the moment.  Something about him just feels right, safe and exciting.   Sure, he could get hurt and miss time.  Every player can.   The sweet isn’t as sweet without the bitter in life and that applies in every sports transaction.

Are there other good options out there besides Andrus?  Sure there are.  Are there better overall options for the Cardinals when it comes to price in dollars and players? In my opinion, there are not.  Elvis Andrus is the man I want wearing Cardinal Red at shortstop in 2014 and beyond.

What is your take?  Respond with thoughts and inquiries to my email, buffa82@gmail.com or find me on Twitter at my handle, @buffa82.

Thanks for reading this.

Cards Can’t Live Without Yadi

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****By this time you know Yadi Molina lost the MVP to Pittsburgh’s Andrew McCutchen.   So what?  Here is a blog I posted on Arch City Sports today.  My reasons for Yadi being the most valuable player in the National League.  Read it and weep.  

Look, I am not going to overload your brain with stats, delicate details and other factors here in telling you why Yadi Molina deserves to be named MVP for 2013.  If you are a baseball fan or a devoted Cards fan, you know those numbers like they are written on the back of your hand.   If you are a Pittsburgh fan reading this setting up to defend your pick, Andrew McCutchen, be prepared to be disappointed and shown the door.   There are so many writers and voters out there who get wooed by a narrative(Pirates comeback season) or the showy stats(home runs and RBI) and forget what the real meaning behind the Most Valuable Player Award.   Call me a homer if you want but there isn’t a player more valuable to his team in baseball than Yadi Molina is to the Cardinals.    This isn’t calculus.  This is pure logic.

Take Molina away from the Cardinals and what kind of team do  you have?   When Molina went down in August, the Cards nose dived out of first place and nearly lost their grip on the season.  When he came back, they regained control and got back in the race.   There’s a quick reason.   Could any other player help guide this young pitching staff that saw 36 wins produced by rookie pitchers along towards a National League pennant?   How many teams have a pitching staff that includes maybe one pitcher who is willing to shake off their catcher?

Molina is integral to the Cardinals success because he isn’t just the best defensive catcher in the game, he is also one of the smartest hitters in the game.   Molina doesn’t just control the running game.  He shuts it down.   He doesn’t just produce a problem for other teams.  He forces other team to draw up a different game plan when facing him.   When Carlos Martinez loses his shit on the mound and needs a kick in the ass, Yadi gave it to him countless times in September and October.   When Michael Wacha and Shelby Miller needed a voice of reason in the middle of chaos, Yadi was there.  He is a leader on the field every time he steps on it and is as vital to the Cardinal Way as anyone in red and white.

The most amazing things about Molina can’t be found on a stat sheet.  They can only be found and understood by people who know, love, live and breathe baseball.  The same player who hit .216 in his third year now hits .300 easy every season and usually finishes around .317.  Players hurt their teams by striking out a lot.   Yadi struck out 55 times in 505 at bats in 2013.  Along with 12 HR and 80 RBI, Yadi banged 44 doubles around the field and compiled a .359 on base percentage.   Sure, those aren’t monstrous Miguel Cabrera like stats.   Voters are blinded by long balls and bats chasing the triple crown.   As I said, the things that Yadi does day in and day out can’t be found on a stat sheet.  He is a special player.

He is the oil to this team’s engine.   Take it away and it will dry out before it makes the six month trip.   He is the backbone of the pitching staff and the sniper in the lineup waiting to spray the ball to any part of the field.   His stare makes runners stay close to the bag and make hitters nervous at the plate.   He is a quietly intense competitor and a man who probably played half the games this season on one leg.   Take him out of the lineup and face his wrath.  Just ask Mike Matheny.  Yadi took his job and now demands playing time under his watch even when he isn’t at his best.

The most valuable player isn’t the person who hits the ball the farthest on a baseball field.  This isn’t the silver slugger award ceremony.  The MVP goes to the player a team can’t do without.  If Andrew McCutchen went down during the stretch run, the Pirates could have slipped Marlon Byrd into center field and moved Garrett Jones into right field.  If the Cards lose Molina, they have to turn to Tony Cruz or Rob Johnson in 2013 with the season on the line.  Do you see where I am getting at?   Without Molina, the Cards wouldn’t have made it to October in the first place.  He is their heart and soul.  Everybody knows it.  Isn’t it time for the man to be crowned with the right award after 10 years of transforming himself into the Most Valuable Player?   My answer is yes.  Sorry Pittsburgh.  You can’t have all the year end awards.

That’s all I got.

Dan L. Buffa

@buffa82 on Twitter

United Cardinal Bloggers Roundtable Question

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Every year, once the season ends, the United Cardinal Bloggers, a blog I write about the Cards for, holds a roundtable discussion.   Via google email chat groups, one person sends out a question in the morning and the rest of the crew answers.  Today, I posted my question about the hottest topic at Busch right now.  The Shortstop Dilemma.

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This is my official question/paragraph opener to the group-

Since it hasn’t been broached yet, I am going to ask what is the best measure to take in the hunt for a shortstop?   Who do you want Mo to target and who would work best for this team?   Do we want the big splash of Tulo?  The lineup changing speed of Andrus(40 + SB in 2013)?  A guy like Jed Lowrie or Asdrubal Cabrera?  Do you want to go young with Jurickson Profar?
Who do you want playing shortstop in 2014 for the Cardinals and why?
Here are the responses.
*Honestly, I don’t want to go young (Profar), I want someone established but not “old”.  The team needs a long-term fix that is more of a certainty, not a two-year fix or a gamble on a rebound.

 
Andrus makes the most sense to me, though if the rumors are true the price of players being asked for is crazy.  If you could get him for a couple of arms and a position player, I’m good with that.  The Cards have the financial freedom to absorb the salary and he’s a player that has established what he brings to the table.  
 
Tulo is an injury risk.  Lowrie and Cabrera offer interesting and viable fall back options.  Otherwise, there’s not much out there and it may be another stop-gap player that can be there for a year or two. *sigh*
 
I have a feeling that we will wake up with a player like Peralta because Mo will not overspend.  It’s not a bad thing, but I wouldn’t be disappointed if they gave up a little more than they were comfortable with for a guy that could be here for a good, long time.
Thanks,
Bill Ivie
Founder | I-70 Baseball
Freelance Writer | i70baseball | Bleacher Report
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As long as they can hit the ball and play Gold Glove caliber defense, I’ll be happy.  That and I want stability at the position.  No more automatic outs when the position comes up to hit.  No more screaming when another ball gets booted when it could easily have been stopped.  No more revolving shortstop come opening day.  This has been the Cardinals biggest problem.  They went from stability with Ozzie from 1982-1996 to Royce Clayton to Edgar Renteria to David Eckstein.  But since the end of the 2007 season, it’s been a new SS each year come Opening Day and that has to stop.  I don’t care who the new guy is as long as they can play GG defense and hit the ball.
 
The Cards drafted SS heavy this past summer.  They took Oscar Mercado with their second round pick and two others in the first ten rounds.  What is their ETA with Mercado?  Will he be a fast riser through the system like Piscotty and Wacha?  Or do they have other plans in mind?
 
Daniel Solzman
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As I put on Twitter yesterday, I would like the Cardinals to go after someone that you did not list in the question. The players that I like on your list will take a large crop of players to get, and I am not ready to part with those types of prospects just yet.

 
This leaves me with two players–one player I have been pulling for all season–Jonathan Schoop from the Orioles–or a player I just came across from a friend (@LuckySTLFan) and eventually after digging through statistics, projections, highlights–Chris Owings from the Diamondbacks. I am actually leaning more towards Owings to be honest. After running the numbers and checking out projections, I legitimately believe that Owings could be the right-handed version of Matt Carpenter for years to come.
 
To acquire either, it would likely require one big name, a la Matt Adams, Lance Lynn, or possibly even Shelby Miller, but neither will require the Cardinals to trade players that I consider “untouchables”–Carlos Martinez, Michael Wacha, Trevor Rosenthal, and Oscar Taveras.
 
Will they necessarily go after either of the players I just listed? We will likely never know, but I assure you all that the front office “won’t leave any stone unturned” when it comes to searching for the shortstop of the future.
 
Also, when it comes to SS’s in the system already, Juan Herrera, the player acquired in the Scrabble trade, is likely to prospect to watch. I love Mercado, but I think Herrera is better defensively and hit decently well in Peoria after the trade.

Joseph M. Schwarz
Butler University
Pharmacy Class of 2015
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If we are looking for a stopgap then I would be ok with JJ Hardy. If we want someone young NOW then the D-Backs have a few they are willing to listen about in Gregorius and Owings.

Our farm shortstops are about 2-3 years away in Kenneth Peoples-Walls and Oscar Mercado. The other two, Garcia and Lemmerman, are not likely to make the grade. 

-Tom Knuppel

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Bill hit it on the head that the Cardinals will not overspend. Now the question becomes where the limit is and who sets it? Mo and Co. surely could go to ownership for the right player/contract but in a trade situation the assets are the key.

I’ll admit to enjoying the Tulo talk because if nothing else St. Louis did it on the team’s terms. Yes, every team knows that SS is a need under the Arch but not for an unlikely deal. Andrus could be an option with the right pieces going to Texas but the most appealing in my opinion could be dealing with Oakland again.

Lowrie has proven to be less of a gamble and already was a target for the Cards on a few different occasions. Reading the letter of the law in regards to the question, however, I’m going to stick with Tulo just because it makes the potential lineup even scarier. We can talk about 2015 and on at a later date 😉

-Joshua and Christi Gilliam

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As long as it’s someone better than Kozma, I won’t be too picky. If I can have someone that can hit .275 and have comparable defense to Kozma, then it would be perfect. 

Getting Tulo would be a dream. as he is one of the best, if not the best SS in the league right now. He’s a bit older, but he has a lot of time on his contract and he is superb. I think a more realistic option, and one that would not make the Cardinals “bet the farm” on him, would be Andrus. 
 
The Cardinals have been stocking up on SS prospects this last year, through the draft and the trade that was mentioned earlier. I would like to see if one of those options would be good in a year or two. If that is true, then Tulo could be the stop-gap needed to get to one of those prospects. My mantra right now, like most others, though, is “In Mo I Trust”.
 
-Ben Chambers
The View From Here
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We can’t rely on a future SS in the system. Peoples-Walls is moving to OF and the others are still really raw. I am starting to lean towards Elvis Andrus, but it depends on what it would take to get him. I am also not one that wants to hold on to all the prospects. 
 
Peoples Walls is a great athlete and that’s why he is getting moved to the outfield. 
 
Sorry for the short response. I’m on my lunch break and on my phone!
John Nagel
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My preference would be the 2003 version of Edgar Renteria. Barring that, the preference is Elvis Andrus because of his age (25), speed (165 steals in 5 MLB seasons) and adequate hitting (796 hits in 757 career games). Cardinals lineup needs an infusion of speed (Andrus and Kolten Wong would create havoc  for opponents) and, with Andrus, Cardinals can have a premier shortstop who hasn’t even entered his prime years yet.

Mark Tomasik

www.retrosimba.com

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I feel like this is the offseason to fix shortstop for a good long time.  You never know how highly prized these prospects will be again, you don’t know when you’ll have the money again.  It really is a perfect confluence.
 
I think there are a number of solid options out there.  I was initially hesitant over Andrus due to his contract, but I think 1) the Cards would get Texas to pay some, 2) they can absorb that into their payroll readily, especially with the new contract money, and 3) Andrus is younger than I thought he was.  Put all that together and he’s a desirable trade target once again.
 
I’m not sold on Tulowitzki and I’d really not like to see stopgaps like Drew and Peralta, but many of the other names bandied about sound just fine to me.
-Daniel Shoptaw
Author, C70 At The Bat  Twitter: @C70

Co-Admin, CardsClubhouse
Radio Shows: Gateway To Baseball Heaven (Sundays) and UCB Radio Hour (Wednesdays, in host rotation)
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It is clear that shortstop is THE position this winter, and with that said, I’m sure that something comes of it, albeit at a cost one way or the other that will make Cardinal followers do the Brett Wallace-for-Matt Holliday gasp (remember that? It’s even funnier now). 

 
With that said, the field breaks into a couple of tiers to me: the property elite (Tulowitzki & Andrus), the property second raters (Lowrie, Hardy, Astrubel, Aybar, Everth Cabrera) and the property projects (Gregorius, various back ups). Then there are the free agents (Drew, Peralta, Furcal…kinda kidding).
 
The problem here is that the elite is going to cost big in money and talent, the second raters are prone to create overpays in talent, at a cheaper price and the youngers are uncertain commodities.
 
At this point, while Andrus and Tulowitzki are relatively affordable, sexy team upgrades, I don’t like the loss they take to gain. In the same vein, I’m not a fan of overpaying for a Lowrie or Hardy, who’s value is certainly boosted more because of the lack of what the Cardinals have over what their actual value is. 
 
The real problem is that there’s a steep fall off from Shelby Miller and Carlos Martinez to Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly. Basically, the cost is too great to deal for All-Stars when its not necessary.
 
In this situation, I’d like Stephen Drew. Yeah, he’ll get more than he’s worth, but he’ll essentially get Beltran’s money and fill an instant need the same way Carlos did when he showed up. He can play a plus shortstop, can hit enough to make the 8 spot a threat and won’t cost anything that’s here as is. So keep the Shelby’s, Martinez’s and Adams in house and add at the cost of nothing more than money that’s been vacated any way.
-Matt Whitener
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The Cardinals are certainly leaving no stone unturned in their search for a shortstop.  The Cardinals have checked in on Profar and Andrus with the Rangers, Tulowitzki with the Rockies and Lowrie of the A’s, among others.Personally, I would like to see them get Andrus or Profar, as Texas has already said one of their 3 infielders (along with Kinsler) is available. Given the choice, I would prefer Profar.

While Andrus is proven, he has the extra baggae of the large contract.  Profar would be under team control for at least the next 5 years and at a much cheaper rate than Andrus.  

Profar gives the Cardinals more payroll flexibility, especially when all these young hurlers start reaching arbitration in a few years.

While he is not as proven as Andrus (or the others), he has tremendous upside and, in my opinion, is worth the risk.

-Mark Sherrard(Cardinals Fan in Cubs Land)
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I like the Andrus option myself all things being equal. Could you imagine Andrus and Carpenter at the top of a lineup, followed up by Holliday, Craig, Molina, Taveras (?). I am always a sucker for the longball, but have to keep in mind that power is down across the league and very few shortstops hit a lot of HR.The Cardinals are obviously wanting an offensive upgrade (since they have a great defender with Kozma) while not sacrificing too much defensively. Specifically to the question I want Mo to target a high OBP speed guy with good defense. This team is not going to hit .330 with RISP next season no matter how much we want to believe that.Create more runs by stealing bases. If the new MO of this team is power arms, good situational hitting, and fundamental defensive play, I would like to see them get a shortstop who could defend the position well for years to come while providing decent pop and speeding up the game a little bit.

Chris Mallonee
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There it is.  The perspective of many Cardinal writers in and outside the city of St. Louis.   If you are still alert, awake and willing, here is my take.  Short and blunt.
While the idea of Tulowitzki is dreamy and sweet, I really see the Cards going another way.   Colorado will ask for too much and force Mo to straighten his bow tie and go elsewhere, which is fine.   In order to part with their superstar player, the Rockies will want at least 4 of our diamonds and Mozeliak won’t give them up.   I don’t blame him.  Call him whatever you want and repeat his favorite line(At the end of the day) all day long but respect the man for being smart, practical and sharp in player related discussions.   He won’t part with too many of his toys for a 30 year injury prone guy with 134 million due to his bank account.   You have to stare at the mustang before you move onto the economically friendly sedan.
My choice would be Elvis Andrus.   He has years on his contract but is younger than Tulo and will bring a different element to the Cards lineup.  SPEED!  He stole over 40 bases in 2013 and gets on base, drives in a fair share of runs and can hit the triples.   His defense is solid and he will fit brilliantly into the #2 hole in the lineup.   When he played us in the 2011 World Series, he showed true skill and an ability to change a game.  Pair him up with a young Kolten Wong up the middle and inside the same lineup and you have two players who could easily steal 35+ bases a season for a long time.  It would be a complete transformation for this ballclub.   Going from the slugging days of La Russa to the base stealing days of the future.   He my choice.
I understand the arguments for Profar, Owings and Schoop.  They are young controllable and cheap.   They don’t have a real baseball card yet but they have mountains of potential.   Profar is the most enticing but may cost you a lot because he is the #1 rated prospect in baseball(right ahead of Oscar Taveras).  Owings may be cheaper.
Jed Lowrie also makes a lot of sense and may cost a few players but won’t cost you too pretty a penny at the moment.   He was big time producer for Billy Beane’s Athletics in 2013.
I absolutely don’t want Stephen Drew and Jhonny Peralta.  The time is now to strike and get a long term solution at shortstop.  Don’t waste it by signing one of those hacks.  Trust me on that.
Andrus is my logical first choice, Lowrie seems a decent second,  but the younger guys aren’t that bad of an option either.   If I want to hop on a cloud, I will take Tulo. Somehow, I just don’t see that happening.
Thanks for reading and head to http://www.unitedcardinalbloggers.com for more Cards commentary and information.
-Dan Buffa
@buffa82 on Twitter

The Idea of Tulowitzki

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Before you look at the logical aspects of trading for Troy Tulowitzki, just hold the idea in your head for a minute.   The power hitting superstar shortstop raking his cleats over the shortstop dirt at Busch Stadium in April, 2014.   Don’t lie to me and tell me you don’t feel the tingling sensation in your bones as we speak.   It’s a compulsive aroma lurking in the mind when you put the Cards and Tulo together.  He would instantly make a position left vacant and bland for the past 6 years look very formidable.  The lineup would become unstoppable and the loss of Carlos Beltran’s bat wouldn’t be an issue at all.   There are few times in a franchise’s history that a lot of things fall into place for you to acquire a player like Tulo(that will be what I call him because I don’t feel like spelling his name 45 times inside one article).

Let’s look at the situation.  It’s impossible to break into it too far because it’s only a scheduled chat between two general managers at this point.   Jeff Passan is a legit baseball reporter and his columm at Yahoo isn’t all smoke and mirrors.  This report is legit and real but just a scheduled conversation without heavy armor involved.  Troy Renick, writer for a Denver newspaper, tweeted in September after the Cards completed a series there that talks would occur in the offseason.   This was destined to happen.  The Rockies have Troy and the Cards have lots of pitching.   Here, I will discuss the idea of it happening and tell you in the end if I like it or not.

Risks Involved in Acquiring Troy Tulowitzki-

*Who would the Cards have to give up to even consider landing Tulo?  Before you get into the years left on his contract and his health, look at the players the Rockies would want.  They are losing Todd Helton and without Troy would have a powerless team so you can imagine Matt Adams could be involved.  Allen Craig and Oscar Taveras would be asked about but I can’t imagine Mozeliak dealing those commodities.  The Rockies need pitching the most.  You rebuild with pitching and form a championship winning team around that mold.   Shelby Miller, Carlos Martinez, and Lance Lynn would be talked about.  Colorado would want established talent, a few prospects and maybe even a couple position players.  They would ask for the gravy and the meat in this deal.   Mo knows this and will be prepared for it.   The Cards have a smart GM in Mozeliak and a man who won’t easily hand over his beloved fruit.  The exchange in this deal would have a heavy impact on the Cards side and that is undeniable.

*Tulo’s health.  In his seven year career, Troy has played 140 games or more only 3 times.   He came up in 2006, played 25 games and hit .240.   In 2007, he played his most games(155) and broke out offensively.   He banged in 99 runs, hit 24 home runs, stroked 177 hits and scored 104 runs.   In 2008, Tulo had the injury blues spike quick.  He only played 101 games.  In 2009, he played 151 games and put up fantastic offensive numbers and also supplied gold glove caliber defense at shortstop.   In 2010, he played 122 games but his production was remarkable.   Missing 40 games, Tulo still collected 27 HR, 95 RBI, 148 hits, 89 runs scored, and had a .381 on base percentage.  After another highly productive year and 143 games in 2011, Troy only played 47 games in 2012.   His injuries are upper and lower body.  He has had problems with his knees, shoulders and hamstring.   In 2013, he played 126 games and missed the rest due to a broken rib yet put up decent numbers again.  Tulo’s ability to produce when he is on the field is alluring but his injury history is the biggest threat in this proposal.

*His contract is a burden.   He has 7 years and 134 million guaranteed left and any team acquiring him would assume most or all of it.   Guaranteed cash is the sharpest nail in the money side and Tulo is set up for the rest of his career.   His contract bumps up to 20 million in 2015 and stays that way until 2020, when it dips to 14 with a 15 million dollar option for 2021.  Basically, the Cardinals will be paying this man a healthy chunk of cash to play shortstop but remember, acquiring a high profile player comes with a cost.  They would have a great player under control for 7 seasons.  That is a reward and hazard at the same time.

Now that we have talked about the rougher edges of the deal, let’s look at the huge dreamy positive.

*Tulo changes your lineup instantly.  He brings pop and an ability to get on base to an already potent roster of hitters and softens the loss of Beltran.   Matt Adams wouldn’t be asked to be a full time producer just yet and be given another year to grow into the role.  Matt Holliday would welcome a close friend into the mix for run producing in Cardinal Nation.   His effect on the lineup would be legitimate and I could see him hitting 2nd, 3rd or 5th in the lineup.   The biggest hole in the Cardinals lineup in 2013 was the shortstop position.  That would be flipped immediately if Troy comes to St. Louis.   He is a game changing player with big impact possibilities.  For the first time in nearly 10 years, the Cardinals would have an All Star tentpole at shortstop.   An impact position would become one of the biggest strengths on the team.   As noted earlier, Tulo is a plus defender and would work well with a groundball pitching staff.   The biggest weakness on the team would become a huge strength.  That can’t be said enough.  The sweet is as equal as the bitter in this proposal.  Instead of riding Pete Kozma and Daniel Descalso for 162 games, the Cardinals could start Tulo at least 135 of those games.  In a game full of risk and unpredictability, I will take that average over 7 seasons.  Think about it.  I have done plenty of it.

Sure, there are other possibilities.  Please don’t take this article as me pining every single cell in my brain towards a deal for Tulo.   I am basically breaking it down for you and myself as we roll along here.   The Cardinals have a ton of young pitching and several teams need it.   The Cleveland Indians have Asdrubal Cabrera, who carries pop in his bat, holes in his glove and costs a third of Tulo’s salary with a lot less liability in years.   The Texas Rangers need pitching badly, and have established shortstop Elvis Andrus and the much talked about phenom Jurickson Profar.   Stephen Drew and Jhonny Peralta are free agents that make up for their lack of an electrifying resume with their low liability.  Mozeliak has plenty of ways to go here but will start with the exploration of Tulowitzki.   According to Jim Bowden at ESPN, Mo is looking to trade a young pitcher for a young shortstop under control.

The easiest starting mark is Shelby Miller and a few others for Tulo.   Something tells me the dirt will be  a lot thicker if these conversations escalate.  Mozeliak will have to part with a vital member of his wolfpack.   Miller is top of the rotation ace material and could develop into a Max Scherzer type down the road.   He isn’t a player you want to throw to the table.   However, the emergence of Michael Wacha and the pipeline of pitching in the Cards farm system makes you at least push Shelby onto the border for consideration.   You can’t gain huge without losing big in the major leagues.  At least not in 2013.   The search for a shortstop is the topic of the winter for the St. Louis Cardinals and I have a feeling there will be plenty of tweeting, article writing, and hot topic flare tossing before spring training commences.

Keep this in mind.   Losing players you love for Tulo is hard but the biggest parts of this deal come down to medical histories and the endurance of the human body.   Executives and scouts have said moving Tulo to third base down the line may help his longevity but that is no guarantee.   Mo will have to ask himself if he wants to roll the dice on a player who has never played 156 games and has played only 101 or less twice.  Tulo could change your lineup but also force you to rearrange your training room and force you to inquire scientists about upcoming medical discoveries.  Is the juice worth the squeeze or does Tulo scare our business expect GM away from the table?   Will Mo break his usual protective mold or open up the department store door for other GM’s to come in and shop with his eye on the prize?   What is for Christmas for Cardinals fans?  So many questions and elements at play here could lead to a 2,000 word article.  I won’t do that today.

I end with this.  The Cards have plenty of pitching depth.   They will only continue to score good draft picks as the future rolls into frame, beginning with the Carlos Beltran departure compensation pick.  The scouting executives under Mo are making smart moves so don’t expect his pitching surplus to weaken any time soon.  The Cards have loads of pitching waiting for the bullpen and rotation.  What they don’t have is a long term answer at the shortstop position.   They have Ryan Jackson and Greg Garcia down on the farm and neither show more promise than Pete Kozma.  They need an impact shortstop.  Right now.   So when names like Shelby Miller and Carlos Martinez pop up in talks, remember this team is grooming starters and relievers these days like Columbia grows delicious coffee beans.   One way to look at is asking yourself does the cost of losing Miller stay equal or emerge greater than the risk of acquiring Tulo?  Another way is asking yourself when will this kind of possibility come along again.  The Cards have financial flexibility to make this deal.  They can handle the risk because they draft a lot better than the Cubs.  They can do this because this team has shown an ability to deal with sudden injury better than any other M.L.B. team.

Yes, if the details line up right, I am all for the Cards acquiring Troy Tulowitzki.  I don’t talk crazy and don’t consume medication for it, but my words are my own.   Consider them and respond.  A writer can ask for nothing more.

Thanks for reading and have a great day,

Dan L. Buffa

@buffa82 on Twitter

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Cardinals Burning Questions: Round 1

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Now that the offseason is settling into our house, the baseball homesick minds have to start breaking down what happened and what will happen going forward.  This week, I participated in The United Cardinal Bloggers roundtable discussion.  Here are my answers to the first week’s burning questions.

1.)Grading Mike Matheny’s second season as manager

Grading Matheny’s season isn’t easy because while the result was 2 wins shy of a World Championship, he made a few mistakes that would have crippled other teams less stocked with such an arsenal of young talent.  Matheny was very solid again this season and for me that means a B+ grade.  What he lost in injuries to key veterans and young arms was made up for with a late brigade of future pitching power and the full time arrival of Matt Adams.  Matheny’s biggest attribute is also the thing that lessens his grade from the A level.  His loyalty.   He leaned towards his heart instead of his head and in the end I believe it costed him and the team dearly.

Mozelaik didn’t set him up with the greatest set of cards when he didn’t stock the bench at the trading deadline, but Matheny failing to make key adjustments in the later part of the season and into the World Series was damaging.  What started as a severe loyalty to fallen closer Mitchell Boggs(including giving him one extra closing opportunity mid season that blew up a winning streak) ended with his unwillingness to insert fresh players into roles.
His playoff roster construction was simply bad team management.  He gave two respect spots to Edward Mujica and didn’t feel like using rookie Shelby Miller more than once.  In some crazy way, I expected Ty Wigginton to show up on the roster as well just to make it seem right.  Matheny also didn’t turn Tony Cruz loose by putting Rob Johnson on the postseason roster.  He depleted his bench by putting players on it he hoped to never actually use.  Name another manager that wins a World Series and does that.
Matheny needed to bench David Freese in the World Series.  The former Mr. October had done little to deserve every start in the World Series and ended it without an RBI.  If Tony La Russa can bench Scott Rolen in the 2006 World Series, Matheny had to find a way to sit Matheny, insert the speedy Kolten Wong(pickoff or not) and switch things around.  Playing Jon Jay(also no World Series RBI) Shane Robinson at a time where Jay was the lesser player was also a big mistake.   His loyalty to Freese and Jay hurt this team’s offensive chances.
Let’s not forget that if Mozelaik hadn’t basically banished Fernando Salas and Boggs, there was a good chance Mike would have used them more.   Matheny’s greatness came from his ability to stick with the right rookies and go with youth over age.  He inserted Mujica and Trevor Rosenthal into the closer role for good returns.  He engaged Joe Kelly a little too late out of the garage and fired up the Wacha Train in the final stages.  His key plus also happened to be his weakness when he failed to recognize a leaking part.   The pitching changes, bunt craziness and other little bits of Matheny brokerage was also hard to watch at times.
In the end, Matheny pushed the team 3 wins further than he did in 2012 but may have hindered his team with his moves late in the playoffs.  When I think of Mike Matheny, I see a talented young man still learning to be a manager in the majors.  This team would obviously run through a wall for him and that won’t change going forward.  Matheny simply has to know when to say when with his players and their abilities.   If someone else is a better option, go with the solution now rather than their resume.  I do expect Matheny to improve as he goes along.
2.) What to do with David Freese?
It’s hard to think of Freese and not get a little emotional.  The local kid who came here in a deal for departing slugger Jim Edmonds who turned into an unlikely World Series hero in 2011 is a fine story to tell your kids but these days that is all it amounts to.  An older story.   Freese’s heroics did happen just two years ago and he put together a fine 2012 season which begs the question of whether to keep him or not.   My answer is only if he wants to be a bench player.  Part time at best and most of the time a late inning pinch hitter/DH/injury backup.   His days as a starting third baseman are over.   Blame it on injury or something else, but I’d say its a ceiling collision of one man’s talent with the ever growing pitching surplus of Major League Baseball.
Kolten Wong deserves the opportunity to get a healthy dose of at bats at second base and no way will Matheny take out Carpenter’s bat, fluke or not.  David Freese will have to decide if he wants to play full time for a lot less elsewhere or will he take a seat on the bench and earn 4 million here where there is a guaranteed chance of winning.  Paying him 4 million won’t be stupid.  Signing a veteran as good or less than Freese will likely cost you more.   This decision comes down to Freese.  Hopefully Mo is blunt with David in those talks.  Do you want to be a part time contributor/pinch hitter here or a full time player somewhere else a little bit less awesome?   His age and the Cards burgeoning vessel of youth puts this Lou Hero on the bubble.
3.) With so many arms in the running for a rotation spot in 2014, what group makes up my starting 5 for opening day?
Barring further injury, my starting rotation out of the listed candidates has to Wainwright, Wacha, Garcia, Miller and Martinez unless Lance Lynn finds a way around an offseason trade.
Lynn is premium trade material.  He has a fine resume that includes over 30 wins in two seasons and good bullpen work.   He is young and hungry and may need a change of scenery to lower his pouting potential.
Jaime is making 7 million this year so he needs to be in the rotation and he is a lefty who can be great when he is on.  Let’s hope his feelings are in check.
Joe Kelly is Mr. Stretch.   He can start, relieve, and close and will find himself in that long arm bullpen spot to begin the season as insurance in case someone gets hurt.  Few can do what he does effectively.   Be solid out of the bullpen and win a lot of starts.  His mindset is key and helps him adjust.  I am surprised teams don’t target him in a trade because of his versatility.
Lyons and Gast are Memphis starters until injuries happen.   They performed well in 2013 but won’t climb over guys like Martinez and Kelly for starts, at least not again.  These guys are also trade depth because they proved they can come up to big leagues and instantly win games.  Look for them to be add on’s to big deals Mozelaik keeps up his sleeve.
Trevor Rosenthal is a setup-closer with this team for a long time.   He has the makeup, ability and finish to go into the ninth and let it rip.  We saw it for good when he saved 3 games in the final week of the season and basically made the Pirates, Dodgers and Red Sox look stupid for a month.   He has a propane heater and a decent changeup and if he was going to try his hand at starting again, he would have to redefine that third pitch.   I get why he wants to start but at this point it’s futile.  Jason Motte will be back but won’t be ready to even compete for the closer role until July.   Motte had the surgery in May of 2013 which means he may not touch a baseball diamond during a real game until late April/early May.  He will find his control and slowly develop back into that stopper we knew from 2011 and 2012.  He will set up until the Cards really deem it necessary to switch him and Rosenthal.  If Trevor is throwing gas and closing everything, it won’t happen unless Motte is electric.  I do think Motte gets back to the closer role sometime, but too late for Rosenthal to switch back to starting.  Motte makes 6 million this year but needs to get healthy.   Rosenthal may say he would like to start but watching him close in October I see a man empowered and having a lot of fun.  Let’s not believe he is wanting to truly move just yet ladies and gents.
Waino, Wacha, Garcia, Miller and Martinez for me in early April.
That’s all this week.  This next week, I present my question to the roundtable and what it is will depend on what hasn’t been put forth up to that moment.  Expect 3-4 more burning questions next week.  I expect Carlos Beltran’s rejection of the one year qualifying offer to make one of the questions, but to me it’s a non issue and needs to be thrown to the side.  Beltran was paid handsomely for 2 years and only missed 28 games and bashed 56 home runs and played solid baseball.  He wants 3-4 years and that won’t come here.  So long Carlos.
Also to be addressed-Jon Jay, Closer Situation in 2014, Oscar Taveras, and Kolten Wong.
Thanks for reading,
-DLB
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Attention all readers.  One of the blogs I write for, United Cardinal Bloggers, has posted an awards session for The Cardinals. You can vote by going to this page.  Check it out and get involved.  

Doors close on The Cardinals in 2013

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The only thing worse than losing is dying.   It may sound overly dramatic but ask any sports fan and they will tell you the same thing.   Loving a team isn’t easy when they don’t perform up to our standards.  When they get knocked out, we need an ice pack on our jaw as well.   It hurts watching your team swing through its final pitch and see the other team celebrate.  There’s a particular chill to the experience.

After the fourth inning tonight, when the Cards went down 6-0, I had to get off twitter and turn my phone off.  A necessary motion because at that point, I was simply tired of complaining.   For a guy who writes as many as 3-4 blogs a week and over a thousand tweets and goes on a radio show barking about it, I was literally tired of discussing their latest downfall.  So I sat and watched.  Every pitch and out.  The Cards made waves in a few innings and collected more hits than the Red Sox yet fell 6-1.   The series was lost in 6 games.

It stings because we were up 2-1 on Saturday and seemed to be taking control with an excellent Lance Lynn start and a 1-0 lead in Game 4.  Then, a Red Sox rally occured, Lynn left, Seth Maness entered and Johnny Gomes hit a 3 run home run that still resonates at Busch.  That, to me, was the tipping point of the series.  Kolten Wong gets picked off first base to end Game 4, our bats get shut down by Jon Lester in Game 5 and silenced by the Red Sox for a single run again in Game 6.   Fenway Park erupts for its first World Series clincher at home since Babe Ruth was pitching and playing outfield in 1918.  Good for them.  I mean that.  It’s hard to not like the Boston Red Sox at least a little.   They are classy and play the game right.   A similar bunch to the Cards.  They made mistakes in the past just like the Cards have with performance enhancing drugs.  They were rocked by a terrorist event in the spring.  Tonight, they celebrate and while it hurts to see my team lose, I can stand on two feet and remember we were beat by the best.   The Cards and Red Sox were the best teams in the majors and played a gritty World Series full of firsts and weird moments followed by huge hits and big game pitching.   The Red Sox were simply the better team.

I will meet anyone halfway about Mike Matheny’s roster compilation.  He put two pitchers on the World Series roster that barely worked in the previous two series’ in Edward Mujica and Shelby Miller.   He gave up two respect spots to those guys and cost the team depth on the bench and the bullpen.   That will be the biggest question facing Matheny and he will probably eat half that bullet.  Good for him, but shame on him as well.   He thought with his heart and not his head there.  Did it cost the team?  While it can’t be measured, I will say it did.  Secondly, Matheny hurt his team by playing slumping players.   Jon Jay and David Freese each didn’t record an RBI in the first 5 games and looked overmatched at the plate.  Yet, Matheny started Freese all six games and Jay 5 of the games.   Shane Robinson, the better arm, bat and center fielder than Jay, didn’t even get an at bat in Game 6 with runners on and the game somewhat in reach.  Matheny stuck with Jay and Freese and it cost him.  Kolten Wong did get picked off to end Game 4 but he also gives the team an element of speed that is lacking.  With Shane and Wong in for Game 6, I won’t say the outcome is different but the game may have been less ugly.  Freese won’t be back.  Jay will only be a part timer next year.  Matheny’s roster management was overall crap.  He knows it.  You don’t include a rookie of the year candidate and a man with 37 saves on a roster and not use them.   If they aren’t going to work, why include them?  For the division series, I saw the idea.  For the pennant, I thought it was enough.  For the World Series, I thought it was absurd.  This is Mike Matheny’s youth as a manager showing up.  He has things to learn before 2014.

Biggest difference in the World Series was Jon Lester outpitching and beating Adam Wainwright twice in Game’s 1 and 5.   The two aces clashed and Boston’s came out on top.  Lester, green goo or not, was magnificent.  Waino was average or a little better.  The second biggest difference was the big hits factor.  After breaking records hitting .330 with runners in scoring position, the Cards hit .259 with RISP in the World Series.  They LACKED the big hit.  All series and especially in Games 1, 5 and 6 where they put guys on base.  Matt Holliday had the only home runs.  Carlos Beltran, Allen Craig and Yadi Molina hit well.  No dent was made.  The Cards streaky offense hit a pale white stretch at the worst time.  It happens…and it sucks.  A lot.  The Cards 6-7-8 spots didn’t drive in a run.   The Red Sox got 4 RBI from Shane Victorino and a solo home run from Stephen Drew(6-7 hitters) in Game 6.  They got a game winning double from 8th place hitter David Ross in Game 5.

Sure, the Cards got raked by Series MVP David Big Papi Ortiz for the first 5 games, but they walked him 4 times in Game 6 and his teammates made us pay.  That was the third difference.   The Red Sox supporting players in the lineup didn’t hit well overall for the series but got BIG HITS.   Victorino finished the series 2-14.   Drew had one hit.  Gomes had 1 hit, the 3 run homer.  Ross had 3 hits.  These guys made their hits count.  The Cards did not.  End of story.

Lance Lynn didn’t get to finish things in Game 4 but came into Game 6 and pitched like garbage.  He relieved Michael Wacha and gave up 2 RBI singles and a walk.  That’s it.  His season ends appropriately.

The kid, Wacha, created magic four times in the postseason but threw his fastball tonight 48 of 68 pitches and got burned.  Instead of relying on his best pitch, the changeup, Wacha went high octane and got blasted.   The kid just didn’t have any more magic left in that golden right arm.  The future is bright for him.

The future is bright for the whole Cards team.  Lots of young arms.  Payroll getting slashed.  Opportunities abound.  Real quick.

Jake Westbrook, Rafael Furcal, and Chris Carpenter are gone.   Carlos Beltran is probably gone depending on what he wants.   David Freese should be gone.  Jon Jay could leave but will probably be brought back.  Jaime Garcia returns.   Tyler Lyons and John Gast are two impressive young lefties.   Jason Motte returns in May barring a setback.  Trevor Rosenthal is your closer and in my mind Carlos Martinez may be your 8th inning guy until Motte comes back.  The needs are shortstop and centerfield.   Watching the Red Sox celebrate, you wonder if two of their free agents, Stephen Drew and Jacoby Ellsbury, have a chance of wearing Cardinal Red in 2014.  Drew is highly more probable than Ellsbury but the need is there.  Oscar Taveras will be here next year.  Wong will be contending for a spot.   In my gut, I believe Wong can hit at least. 260 if given enough at bats.   At worst, he is your Kozma next season.  A light hitting defensive specialist with speed.  Shane Robinson SHOULD take Jay’s spot.  Adams takes over first.  Craig could move into right field but that’s dependent on the future of Mr. Beltran.   It’s unfortunate the team couldn’t win a World Series for Beltran, but he got there and sometimes that can fill the gap.   He may be back next year.  2014 should involve another battle with the Pirates and maybe the Reds.   The Cards will be contending for a long time just based off their unbelievable young stock of young pitching.

Remember this as you deal with anger managements the next few days.  This team was slammed with injuries to their starting crew.   The Cards got hit as hard as any team in the major leagues.   Motte, Carpenter, and Furcal for a whole season.   Garcia and Westbrook for part of a season.  Craig for the last month.  We dealt with and we kept on going.  The Cards got to the World Series and lost in 6 games.  This is not 2004.  Not even close.  Our Redbirds will be back.

Hang your head.  That’s fine.  Just don’t forget the amazing ride this team took us on for close to 7 months.

Thanks for staying and goodnight,

Dan L. Buffa

@buffa82 on Twitter

The Cards’ Last Stand

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Here we are, Cardinals fans.  Nearing the end of another amazing, intriguing, emotionally draining and all together viciously entertaining season of baseball.   For me, no other sport stirs up my emotions and drives me insane quite like the game of baseball.   Maybe it is the way they play it.  Maybe it is just the experience I have watching it and the memories that bleed into the present day.   Casual fans and non followers look at me in disbelief at how screwed up I can get watching baseball.  My dad, wife, and a few of my friends have the ability(and YES it is an ability) to simply watch, turn it off and move on.  I carry every loss around like a bad habit and break down every win.  It’s what I do.   It doesn’t matter if I find a job in sports journalism or driving a forklift in a warehouse(I can tell you which one is more likely), I will always come here and dish my take.  Whether you agree or not, all I ask for is that you appreciate and respect it.  I know only one way.  Blunt and unfiltered.

Here’s where my mind is on the eve of Game 6 of the 2013 World Series-

  • Pitching to David Ortiz is futile.  A man with a .742 batting average and who is known for delivering crushing blows to opposing teams doesn’t deserve a strike to be thrown his way, so my memo to Cardinal pitching is, outside…outside…outside.   Throw it to the backstop or roll it up to Yadi Molina.  Don’t let Ortiz help send you home unless you are flying home to a parade and a trophy awaits you.
  • Offense, light it up please.  The time is now to create one of those 2 out running scoring barrages.  The best offense in the NL needs to show up once in this World Series.   Don’t let Boston have all the fun.  We have scored 13 runs in 5 games in this series, and one came on an obstruction call that will paint Boston Red Sox third baseman Will Middlebrooks in odd baseball history for years to come.   Simply put, our bats haven’t produced more than 5 runs and have been held to 1 run twice.  That’s just not acceptable.  Let me say this. The Cards approach is bizarre.  Against a powerful hard throwing guy we will be patient.  Against a soft tossing hurting pitcher, we will be over aggressive and help him out.  When it comes to hitting, approach is everything.   Tonight, John Lackey is going to be firing that 94 mph fastball towards the strike zone.  He isn’t crafty like Jon Lester.  He dishes it up there and hopes you are stupid or ill-equipped to handle it.   Tonight, be aggressive.  Stop staring at called third strikes.  It’s bad for your resume.   Go for it.  Show up.  Destroy this Red Sox team in front of their own fans and put the pressure back on them in Game 7.   Their pitching is good but not this good, guys, so go after them.
  • Giving Michael Wacha a lead is important.   The kid can loosen up and fire more fastballs if he knows the bats have his back.  We have asked this kid to be Rambo this postseason.  Go into enemy territory and rescue the team from expected death.  Wacha has been amazing and will be World Series MVP if we pull this off.   He has been absolute NAILS for the entire postseason and he deserves a 4-0 lead for his month long efforts.  The Red Sox got one big hit from Ortiz in Game 2 off Wacha and that is it in 6 innings.   My feeling is an unconventional one in that Wacha will adjust more to their lineup than they will to him.
  • David Freese, do something with you life.   The pride of IMOS and St. Louis past glory needs to deliver a hit tonight.   For the love of baby jesus, take the ball to right field.   Be your old self.   Be the guy from 2011 or 2012.  Those guys were good hitters.  This 2013 nonsense needs to stop.  Freese could be playing his final game for the Cards.  Get over it, ladies.  He is arbitration eligible and will probably want too much to come back.   True or not, make tonight count Freese.  You have done little in this postseason worth remembering.  If you become lethal, this lineup looks pure doom for Boston’s pitching.
  • Here is something I can’t get out of my head.  Mike Matheny didn’t help himself by allowing his loyalty to burn him in this series.  I love the guy and most of his moves are good but his roster moves this postseason are amateurish.  You are facing a powerful team with a very good left-handed basher and you don’t load up your pen with lefties.  Here is my problem.   Ortiz has gotten to Randy Choate’s slow toss pitching and burned Kevin Siegrist’s high octane heat.   This is where Sam Freeman comes into play.   He has decent heat on his fastball and has a sweeping slider/cutter that moves away from lefties.   He could have been the ideal matchup for Ortiz but no, instead, we have Shelby Miller and Edward Mujica riding the bench and soaking up roster spots.   This is where loyalty needs to be broken for logistics.  He is hurting his bench as well, with a good pinch hitter in Tony Cruz being off limits due to his catching insurance behind Yadi.    A smart move would have been adding Rob Johnson to the roster so Cruz can be used in a pinch hitting role.  Instead, we have limited options in our bullpen and bench.  Thanks Matheny for being loyal but you failed here.   The inclusion of Shelby Miller and Edward Mujica on the roster takes away two valuable fresh players from this team.  Instead of strengthening his roster with worthy players, Mike Matheny got sentimental.
  • Shane Robinson needs to start tonight.  He hits RH pitchers very well and at this moment, is the best option for CF.   He plays better defense and is hitting just as well as Jon Jay.  I could root for the speed demon redemption seeking Kolten Wong to start at second, but I won’t get greedy.  Start Sugar Shane.
  • What has went wrong this series?  A few things.  The little things that pushed our locomotive forward all season are starting to show signs of wear and tear. Once unbreakable relievers Seth Maness and Kevin Siegrist are capable of getting rocked suddenly. David Freese is incapable of getting a big hit. Pete Kozma and Daniel Descalso can’t buy hits.  Lester has been better than Wainwright this series.  Our RISP has dropped dramatically.  Utility players like Johnny Gomes and David Ross have beaten Cards pitching at bad times.  The flipping point to me is still Lance Lynn being pulled for Seth Maness to face Gomes in Game 4.  Since then, it has been a fight.

We can only hope the delay in the trip to Boston last night had more to do with bat retrieval than mechanical failure. This team has barely hit. We haven’t put on display a barrage of hits yet in this series.   Defense and pitching wins games, but tonight the Cards bats need to provide a little magic in order to support their rookie pitcher and save the series.

Will the Cardinals offense show up or will we fall short of greatness?

If we fall, ladies and gents it has been fun. Every season it seems I make new friends and build great conversations through my doses, activity on twitter and facebook. Sports can be the greatest connective tissue in life.  Thanks for mixing it up and reading.

Go Cards!

-Dan L. Buffa

@buffa82 on Twitter

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Mistake Filled Game 4 Evens The Series

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Prepare yourselves.  I am about to defend Kolten Wong.   The rookie second baseman made a crucial mistake in the bottom of the 9th inning, getting picked off first base with Carlos Beltran standing at home plate representing the tying run.   It’s easy to jump on Wong after this loss but the man entered the game in the ninth inning.  There are other people to blame for this Game 4 collapse and I am going to lay it out for you.  Let’s go.

*Believe me, Kolten Wong’s mistake was brutal.   He should have kept a leg on first base because his run represented basically nothing, unlike last night when he pinch hit, singled, stole second and was stranded.  Tonight, he had the energetic kick of a young base hound and was caught.   A rookie mistake.  Wong will be back and deserves another shot.  In my opinion, he should start Game 5 at second base because he is mad, hungry and deserves to right the ship.  Mike Matheny has a way of going back to struggling young players and I hope he does here.  Wong isn’t the reason we lost this game.  He is merely one of them.   The kid messed up. Big deal? Yes!  Throw it on him only?  No!  Get it right in your head.  Kolten Wong deserves another shot.   Hopefully his teammates pick up his shoulders tonight off the floor and remind him baseball is great because everything can be turned around on the next huge play.

*Somehow, some way, we let a sore shouldered Clay Buchholtz’s sore shouldered ailed body pitch 4 innings and only allow 1 run.  We had a chance to jump on his soft tosses and missed out.  Bad approach, bad swings and little execution.  Do baseball readers read scouting reports?

*We can let David Freese start again.  Why not?  Imos boy is 1-12 in the World Series with 40,000 guys left on base.   His defense at third isn’t gold glove material so he needs to sit.   His bat can change a game with one swing and that means put him in a bench role.

Let him come off the bench late, when it’s Freeze Hour.  He doesn’t deserve 4 at bats a game right now.  He looks flat, solved and dead at the plate.   He wasted opportunities tonight but gets a pass because he was great in the postseason 2 years ago.

Freese has topped out and after a magical 2011 postseason and solid 2012 season, looks like damaged goods about to be released in the offseason.

*Mike Matheny shouldn’t have taken out Lance Lynn in the 6th inning.  Johnny Gomes was 0-2 against Lynn and looked horrible.   Why put in Seth Maness, your contact pitcher who is brought in for double plays, when you just need one out and your starter is fresh?  Lynn was visibly mad, not whining, and I back him here.  He was at 89 pitches, had life on his fastball, had 2 outs, and had only allowed 3 hits.

What made Matheny pull him?   Mike Matheny is afraid to let Lynn lose a game.   Why?  In September, John Mozelaik wanted Lance Lynn out of the rotation.   He told Matheny this and Mike backed his young starter and Lynn paid off his debt and did well.   However, Matheny is so scared to let Lynn give up the big bomb.

Mozelaik has more say in the management of this team than some believe I think.   He wanted Lynn gone, Matheny backed him and walks in fear daily.  Just my feeling but maybe a reason behind the early pull of Lynn tonight.    Lance Lynn had the stuff to finish the 6th inning.

*Daniel Descalso can have a bad day at the plate.  No hits. Bad strikeouts.  His big hits make us forget he is about as good of a hitter overall as Pete Kozma.   He is a magic man in that department.  Descalso popped up ball four in a crucial 7th inning spot where we had a chance to score more than 1 run.  He left too many runners on base, decides to swing the bat before the pitch comes and doesn’t need to start another game this series.

*Seth Maness has come down off the mountain in October.  He has allowed 6 of 10 inherited runners to score, which is the meat and potatoes stat for relievers.  He should only come in when a double play is needed and only then when the bigger guns are tied.

*Allow me to point out that two pitchers on the roster aren’t pitching meaningful innings.  They aren’t pitching at all.  Edward Mujica and Shelby Miller.   I understand loyalty to players and letting them know that their services rendered means something but you have to cut that off in the World Series.  Why isn’t Sam Freeman or Tyler Lyons on the roster as arms who can get people out?   Why not disable Miller or Mujica and activate Lyons or Freeman?  It’s probably not possible but it was worth the line.   I just don’t understand it.  How many managers waste a playoff roster spot twice?  Barely any.  Talking to you Mr. Matheny.  Give me an answer in that gruff Eastwood voice.

*Find a way to start Allen Craig.  He is so money at the plate and it’s hard watch him get one chance per game.  Before Wong’s mistake, Craig put the Cards in line to tie the game.  I don’t care if he can’t run.   Let him launch bombs and limp around the bases for all I care.  He has the winter to heal properly.  If he can field grounders let him go.  Play Matt Carpenter closer to first or something.  Make up for lost ground.  Get Craig in there.  Off the best closer in the American League, Craig has cranked two hits.  One to left and one to right.  He will be deadly against Jon Lester tomorrow.  Find a way.  Matt Adams is slowing down at the plate and will serve as a solid pinch hitter off the bench in the 8th or 9th.   Find Craig some Icy Hot, a Tony Robbins video and a live chicken. Get him out there.

Look, it wasn’t going to be easy.  If you want easy, apply for jobs on http://www.careerbuilder.com.   Winning the World Series takes guts, glory, comebacks and true clutch moments.  This is center stage.  The Cubs, Mariners, and Padres dream about this stage.  The Cardinals are here for the 4th time in 9 years and are in a dogfight with a team that plays baseball in a similar fashion to them.  Hard and to the end.   In Game 4, we got up early, and seemed to be in control until Gomes hit a ball out of the park.  We didn’t quit and lost in a tragic fashion.  Every game in this series has been dramatic and intense.  Expect the next 3(if needed) to be just as emotional and crazy.   That’s baseball in October.  Tense encounters.  Which team’s will breaks first?  We made two horrible errors and lost our way in Game 1.  We benefited off their mistakes and came back in Game 2.  We won a contested battle on a technicality in Game 3.  Game 4, a few bad decisions and performances cut us short.  What happens in Game 5?  This is what I want.

Don’t let David Ortiz beat you.  Let Adam Wainwright throw 130 pitches if needed.  Check Jon Lester’s glove for Clay Buchholtz’s green hair gel.  Don’t start David Freese.  Don’t start Daniel Descalso.  Start Kolten Wong.  And find Shelby Miller.  As long as the Cards play sound defense, get a few clutch hits and don’t self destruct I think Waino will bring this Game 5 home.

That’s all.  Thanks for staying.

-D. Buffa

@buffa82 on Twitter

IMAGE CREDIT-Fansided.com

 

 

Fenway Torture in for The Cards

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Ladies and gentlemen, the St. Louis Cardinals are in the danger zone in the 2013 World Series.  On Wednesday night, the Redbirds were coldly introduced to the horrors of playoff baseball in a park famous for making visiting teams show their ugliest color.  Right from the outset of Game 1, bad things were in store.  Bad defense, subpar pitching and a lack of the big hit kept the Cards from breaking out on top early.  The rest was sad to see.   Just in case you had the pleasure of not watching last night’s game, allow me to tell you what happened and why we lost Game 1.

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Adam Wainwright Doesn’t Bring His A Game

It happens more often than people give his stat line credit for.  Lately, Adam Wainwright had found a way to escape his worst inning, the 1st frame, without much damage.  Last night, things weren’t going well for our ace pitcher.   His curve ball didn’t have the bite it usually had.  The cutter was out of the strike zone.  His mistakes came on his fastball up in the zone and on bad changeups.   Waino wasn’t bad last night but he was far from sharp and got beat up.   Out of all the hits given up, Mike Napoli’s three run double was the hardest hit.  Others were seeing eye singles through the holes or bloop hits.  If madness had a name, The Cardinals found it and don’t forget, the rough pitching of Waino was the start.   He could have exited the game without throwing 95 pitches but since Shelby Miller is missing yet on the roster, the Cards would have further exposed their bullpen if Waino hadn’t made it out of 5 innings.   Waino’s runs allowed weren’t all earned, but if you asked him, he will take responsibility for all of them.  He couldn’t get a patient Red Sox lineup to bite on any of his pitches so he had to come to them and the results weren’t pretty.

Bad Defense Blues Strike

In my blog yesterday, I picked the Cards in 7 but I pointed out that the one thing that could hold them back or make them fail is their bad defense.   In nearly every category, the Cards ranked near the bottom in defense in 2013.  The Red Sox play solid defense and don’t make too many errors.   The Cards are capable of shooting themselves in the foot.  Last night, it happened early.  Pete Kozma is a pretty good defensive shortstop and may be our best choice at shortstop but he had a horrible night.  He didn’t get a hit but he allowed a few runs to be possible with his defense.  With a runner on base, David Ortiz hit a ground ball to a shifted infield and Matt Carpenter fielded the ball.  Kozma, forgetting where he was, moved to his left first and then had to back up to the second base bag.  Kozma received a weak toss from Carpenter and dropped it.  The second base umpire ruled the runner out but after a discussion with the fellow umpires, the ruling was reversed.  Two on and only 1 out.  Eventually, the bases got jammed and cleared by Napoli’s shot into left center.  In the regular season, you can make errors and survive a game.  Here, in this game, in Boston in the World Series, an error can break a ball game in half and futility can define your game for the night.   The Cards couldn’t overcome bad luck, bad plays and bad pitching last night and lost miserably.  In the 3rd inning, a pop up dropped between Waino and Yadi Molina.   Two runs scored that inning.  Another grounder went off Kozma’s glove.  A few more singles and walks led to runs.  Ortiz missed a grand slam but eventually took Carlos Beltran out of the game when the postseason hero pulled back the fly ball for a mere sacrifice fly.   The Cards committed 3 errors and have committed 6 errors in 12 games this postseason which leads all teams.  Defensively, they are a liability and in Game 1, the Red Sox used that to get ahead in the series.

Beltran Goes Down and Out

Our star rightfielder, playing in his first World Series game in his storied career, made the wonderful catch over the wall on Ortiz but damaged his ribs on the right field wall.  One of the crazy features in Fenway is the right field wall that comes up to a normal sized player’s rib cage.  It isn’t like the outfield walls around the major leagues where you basically bounce off it and make a throw.  Fenway’s right field wall may as well have thorns sticking out of because when Beltran made that catch he bruised his ribs, left the game, and may be affected by it the rest of the series.  Remember what happened to Hanley Rameriz in Game 1 of the NLCS?   The Cards got a dose of that feeling last night with Beltran going down.  With Allen Craig unable to play the field as of right now, losing Beltran would be detrimental to the chances of a title.

Fenway Park Familiarity 

The Cards don’t have it and looked like a team lost in space last night in Boston.   Both teams deal with the conditions there, but the Red Sox are used to it because it’s their home.  The Cards looked out of sorts and homesick last night.   The green monster in left field.   The way it is set up, you think the left fielder is standing right behind the shortstop.  A base hit to left doesn’t score a runner from second.  A ball off the wall is probably a single and not a double.   Right center is a potentially hazardous situation.  The place seats less than 40,000 people and when stuffed to the gills, it resembles a very crowded church.  People are everywhere and the smaller the environment, the more noise can be made.  The Cards aren’t used to that and have played in some hostile places(San Francisco) but not like this.  This isn’t Chavez Ravine in LA where a lot of seats are empty.  Fenway Park is a cathedral of baseball heaven in its own right and for visitors it can be hell.   Busch Stadium is a great place to be and works in the Cardinals advantage, but it doesn’t have the quirky confines like Fenway does.   If you aren’t ready for it, Fenway can swallow you whole.

The Offense Fails to Produce The Hit

Two chances.  Two double plays.  The Cards had chances to get back in the game but David Freese and Yadi Molina hit into double plays.  Chances erased.  We had 7 hits, as many as Boston, but could only produce a single run, which was a Matt Holliday bomb in the 9th inning of a 8-0 game.  Forget the pitching and defense for a minute.  The Cards have to find a way to score.  In the last 3 games of the Dodgers series, they were starting to break out.  There isn’t a living and breathing defensive handicap like Yasiel Puig in right field anymore.  The Cards have the offensive firepower, with or without Beltran, to score at Fenway.  On Wednesday night, they put runners on base but couldn’t score.

Let’s talk about the hairy elephant in the room…..

The Gooey Substance on Lester’s Hand

Maybe it’s nothing.  Maybe it’s something.  Either way, I would like to know what was on Jon Lester’s glove throughout the game.  A Cardinals minor leaguer spotted it and you can see it in pictures.  I don’t care who put it up first, social media or a private source.  I want to know what it was and if it gave Lester an advantage.   Excuse me for looking out for the sanctity of the game here but if there was cheating going on, something needs to be done.   In the cold weather, two things are effected.  Your feet and hands.  Pitchers have a hard time getting a grip on the ball.  The substance looked like vaseline.   If Lester was using it, I am not sure if he was, then that is a huge advantage.  Throwing a good curveball is all about the grip on the baseball.  If Lester cheated, hopefully the MLB investigates.  If there is a shed of doubt about his innocence, go after it.  What was it?  What is the name of it?  What does it do?  Why were you using it?  Tell me now.

Looking ahead to Game 2 With Wacha Taking The Mound

The good thing is rookie sensation Michael Wacha goes in Game 2 tonight.  The same guy who was pitching to college players last year takes the mound in rowdy Fenway Park tonight with the hope of sending the Cards back to Busch on Saturday with an even series.  Going back down 2-0 would be like escaping quick sand.  Wacha shut down the Pirates and Dodgers.  Now he goes into the toughest place to pitch and will try to create magic again.   The bats need to make an appearance.  Score early.  Get Wacha some runs.  Create an aura of confidence because right now, it’s non-existent.  The Cards have to take the series back tonight and along with the necessary needs, good defense will be required or you can call this series over.  It’s that simple.

Thanks for taking the time,

Dan L. Buffa

@buffa82 on Twitter

Reasons Why The Cardinals Win the World Series

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Tonight, the Cardinals and Red Sox open season on the World Series at Fenway Park and it’s hard to find a part of me that isn’t excited to see the Redbirds compete for their 12th championship title.   Baseball isn’t an easy sport to love.  It takes patience, exasperates your nerves and requires a particular brand of devotion only developed at a very young age.  It was hard to tell what would come of the 2013 Cardinals but if any team has earned the right to return to the center stage of the playoffs, it St. Louis.   Minus three starters, a shortstop, closer and their RBI machine first basemen for the most important stretch of the season, the Cards used 20 different rookies to climb their way back to the top.  They beat their division rival Pirates in 5 games and outlasted the hapless and mercenary assembled Dodgers in 6 games to reach the World Series.  It’s a helluva story that will see an end in about 10 days.   The best team in each league meets this week in the World Series and the winner will be justified.   Who wins and why?   I believe the Cards will win in 7 hard fought stressful games and here are a few reasons why that can happen.   I will leave the ridiculously detailed observations to the stat hounds on twitter.  I am going to swing the blunt stick here for the pleasure of my readers who don’t have all day.

4 Reasons Why The Cardinals Win The Series.

*The Cardinals have a better 1-2 punch in their rotation at the moment and that means everything because these two will pitch twice in the series and determine the initial momentum and the outcome.  For the last month, no combo has pitched better than Adam Wainwright and Michael Wacha.   Wainwright has been nails for the better part of September and all of October.  He is an ace and has pitched like one.  If he can make it out of the first inning,  Waino has been nearly unhittable.   Coming up behind him is the rookie sensation Wacha.   He didn’t just pitch good the past 2 weeks.  He has dominated hard hitting good teams.   He dominated the Pirates in the division series to keep the Birds in it and proved his mettle by beating the Dodgers twice in the NLCS.   What makes you think the Red Sox will have a shot against him at Fenway or Busch Stadium?  Wacha is the deal breaker when it comes to which starting pitching has the edge.   I am sorry but Jon Lester, Jake Peavy, Clay Buckholtz and John Lackey don’t scare me and neither of them form a 1-2 combo better than Waino and Wacha.

*Allen Craig is back and that is great for many reasons.  First, his bat in this lineup instantly it deadly.   This is a guy who drove in 97 runs in about 5 months.   Craig doesn’t do it by bashing home runs.  He collects his RBI by knocking in runners with 2 outs and the stress levels higher than the roof of a stadium.   He doesn’t have to crush the ball or swing the bat like Thor like his teammate Matt Holliday.  Craig has a nice and easy going swing that lobs base hits to all fields.  His timing won’t be an issue.  If he had to catch up to the Cards’ young arms fastballs there would be problems.   Most of the Red Sox rotation relies on command and offspeed pitching, and Craig has shown the ability to hit any breaking ball.   He is a smart sound RBI machine that is the offensive X-Factor for the 4 games in Boston.    There is a chance he could play first base for 1 of the 3 games at Busch and the good thing is he has until Saturday to prep his legs for that.   Home field advantage is nice but without it allows the Cards to see what Craig can do on the base paths.  If he plays first, Mr. Matt Adams carries his sledgehammer back to the bench for late inning heroics.  If not, Craig sits at Busch as the most deadly man in the stadium waiting for his chance to make a dent.  A healthy and effective Allen Craig makes the two lineups seem pretty even.  Allen Craig and Wacha are difference makers ladies and gents.

*Our bullpen is better than the Red Sox pen.   Sure, the team gave Edward Mujica a guest spot again but still bolster a group that throws hard moving heat and can break off the curve when needed.  Have a problem with David Ortiz?  Bring out Randy Choate or Kevin Siegrist.   Need a double play?  Ask Seth Maness to spin a sinker up there and the inning is over.  Have a problem with switch hitters?  Siegrist can handle them and there also is a guy named Carlos Martinez down there waiting to make an impact.  Martinez has been pitching lights out of the pen lately, filling himself with confidence and arrogance on the mound.   At the end there is a man named Trevor Rosenthal who has been a door slammer this month.   Rosenthal is also pitching with more confidence since taking over the closer role.  He shut down Washington in the final week of the season and didn’t run in any problems with Pittsburgh or Los Angeles.    Just remember this.  The Red Sox outlasted the Detroit Tigers because the Detroit bullpen pathetically blew two fine games pitched by Max Scherzer.   If Waino, Wacha or Joe Kelly hand a lead to this Cardinal bullpen, it won’t be blown and it definitely won’t happen twice.  The turning point in the Detroit-Boston series was the Tigers pen blowing a 5-1 Game 2 lead.   Once that happened, the series was swung in the other direction towards Boston.   They were given a life and took advantage.  Against our hard throwing arms, they won’t see a shred of that advantage this next week.

*Carlos Beltran.   Yeah, I am getting sentimental here but I have a feeling Beltran will finally capture his long awaited World Series ring.   He has waited 15 years to get here and I doubt the Cards will let this opportunity slip away.  There is no guarantee Carlos will return next season so this is the best shot to deliver the veteran a smooth ride home.  Beltran has been a great teammate and ambassador of the game in St. Louis and came here to win it all.   This team may get down but it won’t let sadness reach their savvy old right fielder again like it did in 2012.  Beltran is a postseason beast and will take care of business.  We wouldn’t be here without his heroic efforts in game 1 of the NLCS and I have a feeling we are in for a couple more signature Beltran moments the next week or so.  Sure, the Red Sox are playing for the grieving city of Boston, which is still reeling from the bombing earlier this year.   The Cards are playing for simpler reasons that include Beltran and a guy named Stan Musial, who passed away right before spring training.  The Cards have honored their fallen legend by playing in a manner that would make Stan proud and that won’t stop this week.

One Reason The Cards may have trouble

*The defense playing in Fenway park.   Left and center field are deal breakers.    Matt Holliday was taking fly balls off the green monster in left field and Jon Jay will be manning a center field with an awkward and potentially hazardous layout.   The two games the Cards lost in the NLCS were games the defense let the pitching down.   The Cards either play great defense or throw the ball around and drop pop ups and miss fly balls.  Make a mistake in this sandbox American League park and the entire game and series could be flipped in another direction.   The Cards must play GOOD DEFENSE.  Avoid errors, make the throws and catch everything you can.  Simple duty if you let it be.

Both the Cards and Red Sox finished 97-65 and got to the World Series.  It’s a rare moment where the best of the best meet in the final round and picking a winner isn’t easy.   Both teams are playing with momentum but I think the Cards are on a higher level due to their takedown of Clayton Kershaw twice in the League Championship series.   The Red Sox couldn’t solve Max Scherzer in two start lasting nearly 14 innings and needed the horrible Detroit bullpen to cough up the leads.   The Cards got to the World Series by destroying Kershaw and the Dodgers.  After that raucous triumph, no one on the Red Sox pitching roster scares me.   Bring it on Boston!  Your city will be quite strong without another world championship ring.  Prepare to fall.  At 730pm tonight, the 2013 World Series begins and I can’t wait.

Thanks for staying and GO CARDS,

Dan L. Buffa