Tag: Tommy Pham

The Missing Argument for Starting Jon Jay

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The 2015 Jon Jay experiment must end!

I’ll keep it simple with this short dose in between Cardinals games this evening. Mike Matheny needs to stop starting Jon Jay. The project “get Jay back to 2014 form” is dead and has been for a while. Imagine an old high school coach trusting that one legged guy who used to be good before well….he lost the leg, and yet the kid keeps starting. Why? What is going through his head? Where is the reasoning?

Please, save me the Jon Jay stats from 2011-14. I look up stats for EVERY article I write and know Jay’s stats very well. I’m a Jay fan and have defended him in the past or right up until this summer when his bat went limp. What he did last year has zero to do with what he isn’t doing this year. It’s like looking at old pictures of a cool car before its engine broke down. Seriously, don’t do that.

Case in point. Today, in a 1-0 game, Matheny had Jay bunt a runner over in the early innings. The #2 hitter bunting someone over. Tommy Pham wouldn’t do that and Stephen Piscotty wouldn’t do that. Last year’s Jay may not have done that. It’s a bizarre thing that did lead to one of the Cardinals’ runs but also left people scratching their heads.

In case you didn’t know, these Pirates games are super important. Like making that dinner with your in laws because it’s a steakhouse and not a Denny’s. Jon Jay shouldn’t start both games of a doubleheader. Like ever. Especially right now. There’s no way to break it down but do it like this.

For the season, in 203 at bats, Jay has 7 extra base hits. His .566 OPS is pathetic. His WAR is obsolete. In his last 7 games, he is 1 for 7. In his last 15 games, he is 6 for 30. In his last 30 games, he is 13 for 67. Ouch.com is where that belongs.

This is the time of the year where feelings and past connections need to stop. You may ask, if not Jay, who should start? Uh, how about Ray Lankford. I’m kidding. How about Pham?

In his last 7 games, Pham is 5 for 17. In his last 15 games, he is 16 for 44. In his last 30 games, he is 26 for 81. More at bats than Jay but that’s the point. Pham is more in tune and locked in. He also has 4 home runs and 14 RBI in that 30 game stretch. When he is hitting #2 or #6, Pham is a weapon. In just 145 at bats, Pham has 17 extra base hits. See a trend here yet?

Stop starting Jay. He may hit a squib up the middle for a single that eludes a glove(see Monday night) or he may get plunked in the butt by a pitch, but those are the best chances he has of reaching base and there is ZERO logic to start that accidental offense over a guy like Pham. With Piscotty still getting back into his skin after Monday’s collision in center field, Pham has to be the guy. He was inserted into today’s game for Jay, but maybe that was Matheny resting his guy.

I am a Matheny apologist but the one thing I can’t defend is his need to start weak hitting formerly decent outfielders over more electric younger players. There’s no defense lawyer in town who can take the stage in court and defend the reasoning of starting Jay in both games of a crucial doubleheader.

The 2015 Jon Jay experiment has to end. Try again in 2016. This is a lost season for Jay.

Tommy Pham: Talent realized at last

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Getty Images-Ralph Fresco

Tommy Pham has been freed. He’s in the lineup everyday as if it was as automatic as hitting the brew button on your morning coffee machine. The 27 year old “rookie” is swinging a hot bat and by hot I mean white crispy burning special.

On the Cardinals last road trip, he managed to crank three home runs in three straight at bats, something that hadn’t been done by a Cards rookie in quite some time. Ask Tim Trokey for the details. I’ll just tell you what the juicy part of this steak looks like. Each home run was a 2 run game changing blast. Each one was a no doubter. These aren’t Yankees Stadium cheap shot right field corner goners. These are Keanu Reeves’ like waves of baseball euphoria.

Pham hit a two run home run in Milwaukee that was so stunning that Fox Sports Midwest play by play guy Dan McClaughlin could only manage 3-4 “wow’s” in his reaction.

Pham has been a curious case this summer for the Redbirds. He started the year brilliantly in spring training, hitting everything but the beach down in Florida. Then he injured his quadriceps and went missing for months. He returned to Memphis in June and started hitting everything but a blues guitar down there in Tennessee. I didn’t heart any tornado warnings down here in Arkansas but it was apparent Pham was tired of being the “what if” guy who couldn’t stay healthy.

When the Cards were in a rough patch in early July, Pham was called up to face the San Diego Padres at Busch Stadium, right around the Fourth of July. Pham created some fireworks that weekend. On Saturday, he collected a double, stole third base and scored the game winning run on a sac fly. On Sunday, Pham smashed a two run home run and an RBI double to provide all three runs for the Cards. In a weekend series win, Pham played a part in every single run the Cardinals scored. That’s a game changing player.

Pham cooled off in the next 10 games, going 5-33 and striking out a bit against the Cubs, Pirates and Mets. After being sent back down to Memphis, where baseballs were surely not happy to see him back in town, Pham was called back up on August 17th. After a quiet 1-9 in San Francisco, Pham went off in San Diego and Arizona, going 11-26 with a double and two triples. When Pham is on, he shoots the ball all over the field. After collecting hits in the next couple games, Pham would only start twice in the next week. With the return of Jon Jay, Pham’s time was unfortunately limited.

After a game in Milwaukee, speaking to FSM reporter Pat Parris, Pham said he had many dreams growing up and this was only one of them. The man isn’t a young spring legged outfielder anymore, but he sure is playing like one. Pham will be 28 years old in March, isn’t arbitration eligible until 2018 and can’t be a free agent until 2021. This is only the beginning.

In his last 15 games, Pham is hitting .342 with an OBP of .366 and a .868 slug(.500 is pretty damn good). He’s 13-38 in that span with 4 home runs and 12 RBI. In the month of September, 9 of Pham’s 15 hits have gone for extra bases. Over the last three wins, the rookie has played a part in every game deciding play. He drove in the tying and go ahead run in last night’s 3-1 win. He’s white hot right now and can’t be moved.

So here is the Pham plan. He plays. No matter what. Pham can take over a game with his versatile set of skills and that comes in the field and at the plate. Randal Grichuk and Matt Holliday need to be 100% before they bump Pham off the starting lineup. Jay hasn’t hit all year, and is only 8 for his last 41 at the plate. Jay is not as good as Pham defensively and his bat isn’t even close. Pham has now risen above Peter Bourjos and Jay on the need to play now depth chart, and Mike Matheny has to understand that.

This is no time to get guys like Jay going. This is a time to play the hot bats. With 17 games left and the Pirate and Cubs refusing to go away, guys like Pham are needed in an offense that can go stagnant. When the time comes, Grichuk and Holliday will get their at bats and that’s fair. As long as it doesn’t diminish the Pham effect, the Cards will keep riding high. He hasn’t just played himself onto the 2016 team. Pham has played himself into consideration for the postseason roster. If you are in doubt, go back and watch the San Diego series at Busch, or the games in San Diego, Arizona, Cincinnati or Milwaukee. He’s a force to reckon with. You don’t sit that down on the bench.

The Tommy Pham Plan is simple. Play him until he, not rehabbing players, gives you a reason not to.

Leave the power and take the OBP with Matt Holliday

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With the new sensations in town in Stephen Piscotty and Randal Grichuk, word on the street is Matt Holliday seems to expendable when it comes to the formation of the St. Louis Cardinals’ outfield this year, next year and beyond. While nobody is asking for the big guy to be traded or sent out, their lineups aren’t highlighting a hitter with some pop and production left in his bat. As Holliday works his way back from his second quad injury in 2015 and an injury plagued season, I’ll warn you. Don’t write off the Stillwater, Oklahoma native just yet.

Piscotty and Grichuk may be the brisket rub of the moment in this town, but they’ve been doing this for less than a season. Their contributions are great and have helped a team carrying an inconsistent offensive attack, but dismissing the idea of Holliday returning is quite humorous considering how this lineup thrives with him in the #3 spot.

It’s true. Matt Holliday doesn’t have the big boom in his stick anymore. It’s doubtful he will reach 30 home runs again. Those days are behind him but that doesn’t render his bat optional. While it’s nice to see Jon Jay making progress and Grichuk starting to do some activities, Holliday is the bat I am looking forward to seeing the most.

The Cards don’t run on power. They run on consistently good at bats and on base percentage. Holliday provides both and has been doing so for years.

People will complain he gets hurt a lot. Wrong. In five of the last six seasons leading up to 2015, Matt Holliday has played in 140 games or more. Holliday is no Tulo. He’s still durable at 35 years of age, and that comes from staying in marvelous physical shape and being smart with his choices.

Leave the power, take the OPS with Holliday. While his slugging percentage has decreased from .525 to .420 this season, his on base percentage still sits near .400. Before he got hurt, Holliday got on base 40 percent of the time. With his healthy .290 average maintaining fuel, Holliday’s OPS is a robust .829 this season. Over the past three seasons, it’s .876, .879 and .811. He isn’t diminishing in overall offensive value, so why hand this man the walker?

I understand transformation and bringing in new players but the kids will have to do more than spark a wire in a hot car during one summer in order to push Holliday to reserve status. He’s going to play when he gets back and he’s going to be here next year and more than likely, the year after that. If that means Matt Adams has to hold off Piscotty at first base, so be it. Competition keeps the kids hungry and the veterans on their toes.

Come postseason time, you’ll want Holliday and his 13 career October home runs. He has a thing for showing up in big moments. The man churns out game deciding hits like John Mozeliak changes bow ties. Sorry he doesn’t make diving catches in the outfield but there’s a guy named J-Hey for that.

Holliday has simply transitioned into a different hitter as his career hits the final strip of pavement. He has went from a power hitting Coors Field resident to an all around Busch Stadium stinger. Holliday still hits the ball harder than most, and his line drive rate is healthy. His plate discipline has never been better than it was this year, with 39 walks to just 44 strikeouts. He’s a smart guy at the plate and in a lineup full of easy 100 strikeout guys this season, that discipline is required.

While it’s normal to talk about the next generation of players, it’s wrong to start writing off Matt Holliday. If he is 100% in September and can contribute, he will play. He’s earned that right. Not to mention the effect he has on this clubhouse as a leader and in the community becoming the face of St. Louis Albert Pujols was before he departed for the West. Holliday can also hold his own in a broadcast booth, but that’s icing on the cake.

Appreciating Matt Holliday in 2015 is a little harder than it used to be, I know. The Baseball Card mafia has to look a little closer and see a guy with some gas left in the tank. Just remember this. Home runs are fascist and Matt Holliday isn’t going anywhere and for good reason.