Tag: NLDS

Cards’ do or die status is nothing new

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imageedit_1_6786761481This is it, folks. A 162 game season comes down to a do or die at Wrigley Field today for the St. Louis Cardinals. Most of you won’t get to see the game, and for that some should be thankful. Just listen to the cubicle next to you. Listen for the screams, cries and excitement. Baseball is a game of endurance and stress trading spots on a bus heading towards the brutal cold of winter.

After dropping Games 2 and 3 to the Cubs, the Cards are against the wall, scratching for space. Things started swimmingly on Friday night and suddenly took a detour away from Pleasantville. Things went terribly wrong. For once, the bats escape blame and the pitching is the culprit. How things have changed for the team with the most wins in baseball and best overall pitching staff.

While Game 2 was a breakdown in fundamentals, Game 3 was a launching pad. A Michael Bay film instead of a dynamic chess duel in the vein of The Hunt for Red October. A stunt sequence. The Cubs hit six home runs Monday night off Cardinals pitching, including three off Michael Wacha and one off Adam Wainwright. Yes, the Waino that some wanted to see start for Wacha. No pitcher went unscathed last night. Everybody had a stain on their shoulders.

Sure, Wacha’s 5th inning was ill fated. He got through four innings while allowing only two runs to a dangerous lineup but Mike Matheny sent him back out there for a third trip through the order. Even though he was hanging his curve and couldn’t locate his changeup. Wacha went out there and Kris Bryant hammered a two run home run. Kevin Siegrist came in for the 182nd time in 2015 and served up a blast to Anthony Rizzo.

After the bats drew the game to 5-4, Seth Maness came in, recorded an out and allowed a scratch single. Suddenly, Matheny wanted to bring in Wainwright. Why? I have no idea. The Cards needed a groundball and Maness is the best at getting those. Everybody wearing blue at Wrigley knew Wainwright throws a first pitch fastball. He did and Jorge Soler hammered his second home of the series, a blast that would prove to be the game winner. Just look at Waino’s face after Stephen Piscotty’s meaningless two run home run in the 9th. The heartbreak was deafening.

Here they are. Tuesday afternoon. Down 2-1 in the series and desperately needing to get this series back to Busch Stadium for a winner take all Game 5. Can they make it happen? Can the Cards pull out a victory at Wrigley?

The ball will be handed to John Lackey on three days rest. By now, more than a few people have told you his stats on this kind of rest. Two decent starts. Both taking place over ten years ago. Expecting anything more than 5-6 innings out of Lackey today is crazy. He’s 36 year old and pitching in a sandbox with high winds. If he keeps the Cards in the game, fans should be grateful.

This game will come down to the bullpen doing a good job. The Cards bats aren’t full throttle wrecking balls this series but they have a pulse. Jason Hammel is a hittable pitcher whom the Cards have beaten up this season for seven earned runs in 10 innings of work. Runs will be pushed across the plate but can the pen protect a lead?

Jonathan Broxton shouldn’t be allowed to pitch. He’s good for a home run or two baserunners per inning these days. Adam Wainwright should only START an inning. If needed, Lance Lynn should be used today. He was supposed to pitch anyway and can give the Cards big innings if needed. Tyler Lyons is down there somewhere and can be valuable. Jaime Garcia SHOULD NOT pitch. He’s never pitched out of relief and making his first time happen in a raucous environment against a power crazy team wouldn’t be wise. Save him for Game 5.

Can the Cards bullpen hold the Cubs off if they are handed a lead? That is the story heading into Game 4. Watch if you dare!

This do or die status is nothing new for the Birds. In 2011, they were down 2-1 against Philadelphia and came back to win game 5 in that classic Carpenter-Halladay showdown. They were down 2-1 against Pittsburgh in 2013 and came back on the road in Game 4 to force a Game 5 at home which they won. It’s not impossible and a situation the team has grown quite comfortable in.

The brutal part is the idea of losing to the Cubs but ladies and gents, this is a 97 win team. They aren’t a band of scrubs. They are good and will be for the foreseeable future. Get used to these battles in the NL Central. This NLDS is a preview of things to come.

Just don’t count the Cards out yet. The Cubs won’t be doing that after seeing their untouchable ace pitcher, Jake Arrieta, allow four earned runs Monday night for the first time since mid June. Both of these teams are great. For all the offense that has been on display this week, it will come down to which bullpen can be more effective. That’s it.

Play ball!

Cardinals NLDS opponent: Cubs or Pirates?

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Tonight, the Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates take aim at each other for the final undecided playoff spot in the 2015 postseason. The NL wildcard spot. While they duel, the St. Louis Cardinals await the victor at Busch Stadium for Game 1 Friday night. As we wait for the skies to go dark and the final order of regular season business to be resolved, I ask you this question Cardinal Nation. Who are you rooting for? Who do you want the Cards to face in the NLDS? Let me tell you who I want.

I’ll take the Cubs and for a few reasons. 

*Big bats have little experience in the postseason. The majority of this Cubs offensive attack is green when it comes to playoff experience and that means something. It’s a different beast in the postseason. The crowds are louder. Every at bat means something. The stakes are as high as ever. The opportunity to acquire something special looms over the regulars. You can tell me how good Jake Arrieta has been in the second half or how polished Anthony Rizzo has become at the plate, but they haven’t tasted the playoffs yet. They don’t know what it’s like. The only thing Rizzo knows about the playoffs is making ill-advised predictions. Jason Hammel has three starts in the playoffs. Dan Haren hasn’t pitched in October since 2009. Jon Lester has the most experience. A lot of these Cubs are new faces in the postseason.

*The Cubs rotation is weaker than the Pirates, not by much but enough. After Arrieta, Jon Lester is the likely candidate to start the NLDS. At most, Arrieta will pitch one game in this series. While they only hit .216 off Lester, the Cards beat him three times in 2015 and hit three home runs. He isn’t invincible, and neither is Hammel or Haren. If the Cards get Kyle Hendricks, they beat him in their one start. The Pirates have Francisco Liriano and J.A. Happ, two Cardinal killers, waiting for the Birds. The Cubs starters, while posting the third lowest ERA behind the Cards and Pirates, aren’t as formidable in a short series.

*The Cubs bullpen is weaker than the Pirates. Pittsburgh’s bullpen ERA of 2.67 led the Majors in 2015. The Cards had the 3rd best bullpen ERA. The Cubs have the 8th best, which is solid but not as scary as the Pirates. In the playoffs, the bullpen efforts are magnified. There are tons of small leads and the Cubs bullpen is more likely to break. If I have to chose between Tony Watson and Pedro Strop, I’ll take Strop. If I have to choose between Jorge Soria or Fernando Rodney, I’ll take Rodney. If I have to choose between Mark Melancon and Hector Rondon, I’ll take the latter. And so on so on. The Cubs’ late inning crew isn’t as formidable and has less playoff experience to boot.

*The Pirates are a better overall hitting team. They ranked 11th in runs scored(697), 9th in batting average(.260), 9th in on base percentage(.323) and slugged two points less than the Cubs as a team. While the Cubs can hit the long ball, the Pirates are more balanced and can break through against many pitching staffs. They have speed in Starlin Marte, Gregory Polanco and Josh Harrison and home run bats in Pedro Alvarez and Andrew McCutchen. The Pirates played the Cards better overall in 2015.

Both teams have very good managers in Joe Maddon and Clint Hurdle. Each field is an extremely loud and difficult place to play baseball games in.

I understand losing to the Cubs would be a very bad ending to the 2015 campaign. Depressing in fact. There’s something sinister in that potential result should the two teams meet in the Division Series. The Cubs were supposed to be playoff ready in 2016 or 2017 but instead used a very good second half and an unreal Arrieta to earn a Wildcard play in spot. The gap is closing and with a playoff victory over the Cards, the rivalry would be as fresh as ever. A loss to the Pirates would be unfortunate but more of a year to year build from Hurdle’s bunch after seasons of falling short. Let’s be honest. The Cards don’t need to lose to either of these teams, so in the end it’s a matter of which poison you want. All three teams had amazing seasons. Both batches are potent. Which one stings the most?

In the end, the Pirates pack a better all around punch. Sure, they don’t have their breakout talent in Jung Ho Kang anymore or have a 100% lethal A.J. Burnett, but still have a great rotation and lineup that hits Cardinal pitching well and played a lot of close games this season. More than five games between the Cards and Bucs ended in a walkoff this season. A playoff series would be very similar and for my money, their bullpen is what separates these two clubs. Plus, the Cubs are more free swingers, strikeout prone and can be locked down.

If I had to choose which team I’d like the Cards to face in the NLDS in 2015, I’d take the Chicago Cubs. You can’t tell me that series wouldn’t be thrilling. As my dad said after a Cards comeback victory over the Cubs this season. “We gave them a taste. Now that’s enough.” If the Cubs make it out of Pittsburgh with a victory, it will be appropriate for the sheriff in town to quickly shut them up.

That’s my take. What’s yours? Tell me in the comments section and thanks for reading. You can also find this article on KSDK Sports page.