Tag: jake arrieta

Cards’ do or die status is nothing new

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imageedit_1_6786761481This is it, folks. A 162 game season comes down to a do or die at Wrigley Field today for the St. Louis Cardinals. Most of you won’t get to see the game, and for that some should be thankful. Just listen to the cubicle next to you. Listen for the screams, cries and excitement. Baseball is a game of endurance and stress trading spots on a bus heading towards the brutal cold of winter.

After dropping Games 2 and 3 to the Cubs, the Cards are against the wall, scratching for space. Things started swimmingly on Friday night and suddenly took a detour away from Pleasantville. Things went terribly wrong. For once, the bats escape blame and the pitching is the culprit. How things have changed for the team with the most wins in baseball and best overall pitching staff.

While Game 2 was a breakdown in fundamentals, Game 3 was a launching pad. A Michael Bay film instead of a dynamic chess duel in the vein of The Hunt for Red October. A stunt sequence. The Cubs hit six home runs Monday night off Cardinals pitching, including three off Michael Wacha and one off Adam Wainwright. Yes, the Waino that some wanted to see start for Wacha. No pitcher went unscathed last night. Everybody had a stain on their shoulders.

Sure, Wacha’s 5th inning was ill fated. He got through four innings while allowing only two runs to a dangerous lineup but Mike Matheny sent him back out there for a third trip through the order. Even though he was hanging his curve and couldn’t locate his changeup. Wacha went out there and Kris Bryant hammered a two run home run. Kevin Siegrist came in for the 182nd time in 2015 and served up a blast to Anthony Rizzo.

After the bats drew the game to 5-4, Seth Maness came in, recorded an out and allowed a scratch single. Suddenly, Matheny wanted to bring in Wainwright. Why? I have no idea. The Cards needed a groundball and Maness is the best at getting those. Everybody wearing blue at Wrigley knew Wainwright throws a first pitch fastball. He did and Jorge Soler hammered his second home of the series, a blast that would prove to be the game winner. Just look at Waino’s face after Stephen Piscotty’s meaningless two run home run in the 9th. The heartbreak was deafening.

Here they are. Tuesday afternoon. Down 2-1 in the series and desperately needing to get this series back to Busch Stadium for a winner take all Game 5. Can they make it happen? Can the Cards pull out a victory at Wrigley?

The ball will be handed to John Lackey on three days rest. By now, more than a few people have told you his stats on this kind of rest. Two decent starts. Both taking place over ten years ago. Expecting anything more than 5-6 innings out of Lackey today is crazy. He’s 36 year old and pitching in a sandbox with high winds. If he keeps the Cards in the game, fans should be grateful.

This game will come down to the bullpen doing a good job. The Cards bats aren’t full throttle wrecking balls this series but they have a pulse. Jason Hammel is a hittable pitcher whom the Cards have beaten up this season for seven earned runs in 10 innings of work. Runs will be pushed across the plate but can the pen protect a lead?

Jonathan Broxton shouldn’t be allowed to pitch. He’s good for a home run or two baserunners per inning these days. Adam Wainwright should only START an inning. If needed, Lance Lynn should be used today. He was supposed to pitch anyway and can give the Cards big innings if needed. Tyler Lyons is down there somewhere and can be valuable. Jaime Garcia SHOULD NOT pitch. He’s never pitched out of relief and making his first time happen in a raucous environment against a power crazy team wouldn’t be wise. Save him for Game 5.

Can the Cards bullpen hold the Cubs off if they are handed a lead? That is the story heading into Game 4. Watch if you dare!

This do or die status is nothing new for the Birds. In 2011, they were down 2-1 against Philadelphia and came back to win game 5 in that classic Carpenter-Halladay showdown. They were down 2-1 against Pittsburgh in 2013 and came back on the road in Game 4 to force a Game 5 at home which they won. It’s not impossible and a situation the team has grown quite comfortable in.

The brutal part is the idea of losing to the Cubs but ladies and gents, this is a 97 win team. They aren’t a band of scrubs. They are good and will be for the foreseeable future. Get used to these battles in the NL Central. This NLDS is a preview of things to come.

Just don’t count the Cards out yet. The Cubs won’t be doing that after seeing their untouchable ace pitcher, Jake Arrieta, allow four earned runs Monday night for the first time since mid June. Both of these teams are great. For all the offense that has been on display this week, it will come down to which bullpen can be more effective. That’s it.

Play ball!

Matt Carpenter: The 2015 Cardinals’ MVP

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Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports
Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports

If there is one guy who can pick up a stone and sling it at the immortal Jake Arrieta, it’s Matt Carpenter. He has a history of knocking down tough guys in the playoffs. Clayton Kershaw, anyone?

When I sat down and started thinking about which St. Louis Cardinals player meant the most to this 100-62 team, it came down to two players for me. Neither was a pitcher. As good as the rotation and bullpen was, it’s hard for me to give to a player who only appears in a fraction of the games. For me, unless a pitcher is unreal like Clayton Kershaw, the MVP is an everyday grinder. For me, it came down to Matt Carpenter and Jason Heyward. While Heyward was a steady hitter from early May until the end of September and a gold glove candidate in the field, Carpenter takes the top spot here because of his effect on the Cardinals.

This offense does go where Carpenter’s bat takes them. When he hits, they win. When he seems to spiral out of control and go into a massive slump or becomes unlucky at the plate, they lose or don’t win as often. Carpenter had 52 multi-hit games in 2015 and the Cardinals record in those games was 35-17, which is a .673 winning percentage.  When Carp collects a couple hits, the Cards seem to win a lot of games.

In 2015, Carpenter had another great statistical season. He started off hotter than anyone in baseball, hitting .372 with an OPS over 1.000. He cooled off in May and went into a prolonged slump in June and July, taking off a series in Pittsburgh due to exhaustion and dehydration. He also moved out of the leadoff spot in late April and wasn’t the same afterwards. Chalk it up as a weird coincidence or a crazy stat, but Carpenter seems to be at his best when he leads off.

In 314 at bats in the leadoff spot in 2015, Carpenter hit .314 with an OPS of 1.023. He slugged .634 from the leadoff spot. In 260 at bats elsewhere, he hit .224 and his OPS was below .700. One can say he simply happens to hit good when he is in the #1 spot, but the stats back up the fact over the past three seasons that Carpenter likes starting things off.

Carpenter’s .871 OPS in 2015 is only two points shy of his 2013 breakout season total. His OPS+ of 135 is only five points shy of his 2013 total. Carpenter’s WAR(via baseball reference) of 4.0 isn’t as otherworldly as his 6.4 in 2013 but still stands as a solid mark.

What separated Carp from the pack in 2015 were his power stats. The man became a lethal power bat. Carpenter led the Cardinals in home runs(28), RBI(84), doubles(44), runs scored(101), and on base percentage(.365). He was 2nd to Randal Grichuk in slugging(.505). His ability to get on base consistently compelled the Cards to win a lot of baseball games but his ability to strike a lethal blow to the opposing team with a home run or double was just as decisive.

Carpenter’s 151 strikeouts also led the Cardinals and that was a product of his expanded strike zone. Carpenter’s swing seemed to adapt to more a power stroke and that led to the higher percentage of whiffs. In 2015, offspeed pitches got the best of Carpenter, especially in June(25 percent whiff percentage) and September(30 percent). Still, the higher strikeout total can be digested as long as the OBP, SLUG and overall production stayed prevalent, which it did in 2015. Also, Carpenter drew 81 walks.

The defense isn’t flashy but Marp can make a great play when needed. Carpenter won’t win a gold glove at third base but he gets the job done and can also play second base, first base and the outfield. His versatility in the field outshines his sharpness at one particular position.

In the end, Carpenter’s ability to get on base, hit for power and put together an all around consistent season at the plate and in the field makes him my MVP candidate for the Cardinals. He battled some tough spots, but more than any player personified the grinding aspect of this 2015 team. When he is on, the Cards seem to win games and his effect at the top of the lineup is vital to their success.

You can’t go wrong with Jason Heyward, but my Cardinals MVP of 2015 is Matt Carpenter.

Sure, Carpenter is only 0-16 against Arrieta with five walks and four strikeouts, but everything changes in the playoffs. Certain players have a way of stepping up. Carpenter is one of those guys.