Canelo/Floyd: Boxing At Its Finest

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floyd-mayweather-jr-canelo-alvarez(reuters)

These days, boxing is still a proud sport but has lost a lot of its fans to MMA action.   The latter provides a shorter, more blunt and sustained form of entertainment.   Boxing is like baseball.  The fundamentals, intangibles and sweet science behind every move is only for the patient people or the crowd who can wait for the big overhand right to the jaw that shakes a man and a crowd at the same time.  I fell in love with boxing when I first watched Sugar Ray Leonard and Marvin Hagler beat the crap out of each other with my dad and brother at a crisp young age of 7 years old.   Seeing two men stand in the middle of the ring and fire blow upon blow while receiving the same punishment was as thrilling as it got for a kid.  It was bloody, pure and old fashioned.  A man’s occupation being training to fight inside a ring for 12-15 rounds was an outlaw style of juicy.   Who didn’t want to watch that on TV if not experience it live?   Flash forward 23 years later and few people truly love boxing.   At least around my part of the world.   I mention boxing and it’s like describing a putt on a green to NFL fans.  They shake their heads, roll their eyes and say the illogical thing, “All boxing is fixed man.”   Uh, no it is not and actually, its cleaner than you think.    People often confuse corruption with judgement.   There are a lot of fights that don’t get judged right and a round scored for the wrong man can cost someone a victory.  However, that is the same as an umpire in baseball missing a call that could overturn a game.  Same logic.   No fix included.

Boxing has died and is barely alive these days even though a ton of fights have displayed a signature kind of entertainment.   Manny Pacquiao and Juan Marquez duking it out for a 4th time last year in a fight that ended in a one punch knockout.   Mike Alvarado and Brandon Rios slugging it out for a second time.  Any fight Andre Berto and Miguel Cotto take part in always produces a good fight with plenty of punching.   However, most people can’t even name 5 current boxers.   Two men that are breaking their way into any sports conversation this weekend, Canelo Alvarez and Floyd Mayweather Jr., are set to clash this weekend.   The weigh in is tonight and the fight is tomorrow.   This, my friends is boxing at its finest.  A young red haired silent Mexican destroyer against the aged perfection that is Mayweather.   Their personalities are completely different.  Their lifestyles couldn’t be more different.   They are isolated champions set to strike.  This fight took no convincing to make.  This was the fight fans were demanding.   The moment Canelo beat respected champion Austin Trout earlier this year, he rose to the top of the list of fighters Floyd had to take on.  It’s rarely that simple or easy these days in promoting and boxing, but this time, the stage was set.  Before I tell you who I think will win or what might happen, let me describe the fighters.  Each have fought in 44 fights and never lost.

We all know who Floyd is.   He’s 44-0.  26 knockouts.    He’s the flamboyant, loud talking, ultra-confident and unbeaten champion.  At 36 years old, he picks apart any opponent put in the ring with him.   He isn’t a perfect man outside the ring.  He likes to get into trouble with the law, whether its beating up his girlfriend, shoving security guards or not paying his taxes.  He’s a boxer in every essence of the word.  He grew up poor, earned his place and is now rich and famous.  He beats opponents before they step into the ring.  Back in 2007, he became the thorn that still rests in Oscar De La Hoya’s side.  He made the silent Cotto talk more in their pregame rituals.  Floyd made fun of Shane Mosley’s hair and shut him out in the ring.   Floyd’s long time nemesis was Pacquaio, and both sides contributed to a mega fight never happening.   Egos came into play there more than fists and words.  Floyd is an island and any fighter who dares to fight him can’t just step onto the shore, they must live there for 3 months.

Canelo is a silent champion.   He doesn’t speak English and prefers to keep his mouth shut in pregame sessions.   An undefeated 23 year old champion that lets his fists do the talking once the bell gets rung, Canelo has atom bombs for fists and has gotten better with each high profile bout.   Most boxing pundits thought Trout would take the cement footed, power punching and fire haired Mexican to task in their fight but Canelo looked like a changed man.  He bobbed and weaved, slipped punches, moved his feet and slowly yet surely defeated the older fighter.  He surprised me.  Think of a home run hitter suddenly spraying line drives through a shifted infield.  Canelo was added another element to his dominance and caught the eye of Floyd.  He is 43-0-1 with 30 knockouts.  He’s a powerful puncher but added defensive elusiveness to his resume.

Who wins?  For betting people, this is easy.  Betting against Floyd is like betting against the sun coming out in Florida.  Bad for business and bank accounts.   Luckily, I am not a betting man.  I simply can’t afford it.  I will spin it as blunt and precise as I can.  Canelo came down in weight to fight Floyd.   A growing man and a body that is resisting weight loss, Canelo is fighting at his lightest weight in quite some time.   Floyd came up 5 pounts from his usual weight to fight Canelo.   That may play a role somewhere tomorrow but my feeling is it will only work against Canelo, who will try to pack the pounds back on tonight after the weigh in.   The fight takes place at the MGM Grand, in other words, the House That Floyd Built.  It will nearly impossible for Canelo to score a decision in that place unless he pummels Floyd for 12 rounds and that won’t happen.   My prediction is Floyd taking more punishment than usual but at the very least sneaking out a decision.   I don’t think Alvarez will make it easy.  He can take a punch and more so than Floyd’s previous opponents, has the power and THE PATIENCE to wait out Floyd.   For the first 2-3 rounds, Floyd slip his jab and dance around, feeling Canelo out.   However, Canelo does this in his fights.  He waits, takes his time, measures his opponent and fires.  Sure, he has never faced a fighter with the defensive skills and elusiveness that Mayweather Jr. has, but Canelo isn’t stupid like Victor Ortiz.  He will get his licks in and connect with Floyd’s jaw line at some point.  When that happens and how often determines if he has a chance of shocking the world tomorrow.    His followers, Mexico as a whole and Floyd haters will bet on him tomorrow because he is likable and talented.   The majority of the world will bet on Floyd pulling out another decision because of the countless times we have went against Floyd and lost.   I thought Robert Guerrero would use his size, jab and experience to at least hang with Floyd in May but that didn’t happen at all.   Guerrero was too busy early and then too tired late and lost a shutout.   Canelo won’t do that.  He will sit back, wait and line up his target.   I don’t think he can beat Floyd on the scorecards, at least not in Vegas.   The only way Canelo can beat Floyd is giving him a taste of a medicine the Money Man has never digested before.   Raw unfiltered power.   If Canelo can rock Floyd a few times, change the veteran’s game plan, and turn the fight into a slug fest or escape plan, the kid may have a shot.  If not, I think he will lose a respectable decision to the elder master.   That doesn’t mean Floyd(who usually doesn’t do rematches) won’t dish the young fighter another chance.   If Canelo gives Floyd a decent hard time, a rematch will be all there is to talk about.   That and hopefully a great night of boxing.

My ambition.  I want Canelo to win.  I am not a Floyd fan but respect his record and talent.   I really like Canelo because he reminds me of my other favorite fighters, Cotto and Pacquiao.   Silent proud champions who let their fists do the talking.   When Cotto loses, he does so with dignity and always promises an entertaining fight.   Same for Pac-Man.  When Marquez knocked him out cold, the Filipino had no excuses and only praise.   Floyd talks a LOT and gets under a fan’s skin, but you must acknowledge what he has done for the sport.  If not for Floyd, the sport is completely dead.   Mayweather is the guy you love to root against and hate.  He is the perfect antagonist.   However, he earned my respect when he caught Ricky Hatton(the Hitman was previously undefeated) with a check hook and knocked him out.   Floyd has earned my respect the past 6 years by taking fights and producing wins.   He is a rich because he made himself rich.   He is the villain but not evil.   Floyd Mayweather Jr. is exactly what boxing needs to stay alive.   A face that everyone wants to see get beat.   Canelo is the perfect hero.  The talented, hard punching, smart young Mexican fighter who says little yet loses all knowledge of resistance once he enters the ring.  This is the perfect fight and represents boxing at its finest.

Enjoy and get ready for more exciting boxing this fall and winter.    Manny Pacquiao tries to reclaim his career on October 12th against Brandon Rios.   I sincerely think Pac-Man has his hands full.   Timothy Bradley has Marquez in October.  Cotto faces Delvin Rodriguez in December with his new trainer Freddie Roach.   Lots of good fights coming up but none as good as this clash between boxing’s brightest stars.

Canelo and Floyd are playing for blood tomorrow night.

For what it’s worth,

Dan Buffa

9/11: 12 Years Later

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Every year, I look back at that day.   A day where as a country we found out our defensive abilities weren’t as strong as we thought.   A day where realism struck several homes and loss carried a whole new meaning.   Rolling Stones’ classic tune, “Paint It Black”, was brought to life in New York City.  A sunny Tuesday morning was painted black indeed and stayed that way for years.   I know where I was and what I felt, and its amazing to think that 12 years have passed since a few planes in the sky changed our country forever and set off a wave of connection, bad decisions, hot tempered wars, and a decade plus of abandonment.  I didn’t lose anybody close that day but I felt the impact of others who did.   What can you say to make it all seem like perfect sense?

As a human being, we all have the ability to feel the impact of death.   I see a list of names and instantly think of all the people who won’t be able to spend another minute with those people again.   Death is a son of a bitch because its final and often there are no clear cut goodbyes.  The lost souls from that day didn’t get the chance to call their loved ones.  Sure we have heard the tapes of ones who did but I always wonder how many people got voice mail as they sat in that burning building, doomed plane or dark staircase.  How many people simply had to hope they would be missed.  Imagine a funeral for them.   How many people would show up?  People who made a pact to lose weight, call their parents more, live it up were suddenly facing down imminent death.  All kinds of people were seeing the rest of their life flash before their eyes that day.  I do believe it happens before we die.  A carousel of clips from our life start to play and to the individual it will most likely seem incomplete.  Death is brutally final not just for the people who experience it but the hundreds of souls who had a connection to that victim.   Young people, parents, daughters, sons, sisters, uncles, brothers, friends, cousins and co-workers.   If anyone thought life couldn’t change in an instant, ask anyone from NYC about that day.   2,996 people went to bed on September 10th, 2001.   They didn’t get a chance to go to bed on September 11th, 2001.   That will never lose resonance with me.

9/11/01 has changed for me in the past 12 years.  I am a father and husband now.   When I awoke on that day in my dorm at Mizzou and saw the burning buildings, I was single and going through the motions of college.  I hadn’t met my wife yet.  I wasn’t tied to anything but unpredictability.  I walked to my Psychology class and they quickly sent us home to our dorms to engulf 1,000 different angles of those planes crashing into the towers, the constant updates, horrifying pictures and the buildings collapsing like a jinga stack.  People jumping from the towers.  Victims covered in ash.  Innocent bystanders acting like they have never seen severed body parts before or had the chance to smell burning flesh.  Survivors can probably be counted as victims from that day of chaos.  I watched it all.  I let it in.  Felt the emotions, anger and raging fury send shock waves through my body.  I didn’t have a one headed monster to get mad at yet.  We didn’t yet know Osama Bin Laden was the mastermind.  This wasn’t a movie with three neat acts.  The bad guy is presented and the good guys get him and normalcy is returned to the surface.   The bad guy didn’t get caught for nearly 10 years.   The good guys ended up losing over 46,000 souls if you count the related illnesses, loss in the war and so on.   The people who died that day were only the beginning.  Anyone who worked on the site, sucked in the smoke and horrible fumes, or spent time there looking for loved ones had their lungs damaged that day.   It was like coal mining if it involved finding dead bodies every 30 minutes.  Anyone who went to war after were victims as well.   I am all for starting a war when needed, but for some reason George W. Bush invaded Iraq instead of just going after Bin Laden, the man responsible.  We lost thousands of soldiers fighting a war many of those lost souls never understood nor did we.   I am not saying Obama would have done different its fair to say the toll from that day stretched out over years.   That’s change.

Now that I am a father, I think about it differently.  A lot differently. I can only imagine if I left one day to go to work and this happened and my son wouldn’t see me again.   Imagine how many fathers and mothers didn’t come home that day.  How much explaining had to be done to little kids, teenagers or older sons and daughters about what happened to their caretakers?  A shit ton.  A lot of words and tears.   I think about my wife Rachel not coming home and the impact that would have on my family.  I think about losing a family member too but when a loss affects your every day home, your inner circle of loved ones, that’s the scariest scenario known on this earth.  I don’t know what I’d do without my wife.  I don’t want to imagine staring down imminent death and wondering if I will never see my son again.  It’s horrifying and that is how I relate to those who were affected that day.   If you didn’t lose somebody, the event can still affect you.

In 2009, I went and saw the Dave Matthews Band at Wrigley Field.   It was harmless really.  I took a trip on the Mega Bus and stayed with my friend PJ.   Weeks later, after I got home, I would find out that a bomber was attempting to blow up that area on that very night.   He planted what he thought was a bomb right outside Wrigley Field and left, only to be detained by the FBI/CIA(I can’t remember exactly which) because he was set up.   Law enforcement gave him a different bomb, a fake one, because they were working undercover to take down this cell.  However, I imagine from time to time if that bomb was real and how that would impact lives around me.  I exited the building on the side the fake bomb was planted.  I wouldn’t have felt anything.  My son would have never been born.   This isn’t easy to write or for some of you to read but it’s in my head so here we go.  9/11 did this to us.  It made us painfully aware of forces outside of our control.   Every time a plane flies lower than normal, I look up.

I don’t think 9/11 was a conspiracy or a coup.  I don’t rule out the idea that the government may have ignored intel or looked the other way but I carry the belief that our country was caught with its pants down that day.   We were blindsided.  Defeated straight up by a smart, crafty mastermind who planned it for years.  People lose sleep and breath over convincing themselves that we weren’t simply attacked by an evil force that day.   I don’t think Bush had anything to do with it and I require evidence to change my opinion.   Buildings collapse with 80,000 gallons of jet fuel running down their legs.  It happened and it was committed by the most wanted man this country will ever know.   We were knocked down that day and of course when we got up, a lot of wild swings and emotions were thrown around.   Alliances were broken.  New fear was created.  Bonds were made.  And you know what, a lot of connection happened.   People did come together and help each other.  Odd couples became friends.

I believe to this day sports played a huge part in healing that city and as a whole, our country.   The Yankees winning emotional late inning games and going to the World Series.  Mike Piazza hitting that game winner at Shea on the night baseball came back.   Jack Buck’s tour de force speech at Busch.  When we are shaken by bad circumstances, we look to sports and movies as much as friends and family.   It’s an escape for the most tormented soul.   At our weakest, sometimes all we need is a game to watch or a movie to invest our emotions with.   Simplicity lies at the heart of therapy.  Just my take.

I always say this to people I know about what happened that day.   No matter the cause, terrorists or conspiracy, those 2,996 souls are never coming back.  Finality tromps cause and reason.  If it were a coup, those people are still dead.  If it was a simple act of terrorism, those people aren’t coming back.   No crime to solve.   All we can do is prevent it from happening again.   Prevent the new Freedom Tower and the fountains and memorial from being attacked.   The United States of America will be targeted for days.  Every day.   It’s our ability to prevent it that separates us from the grave.  Stop fighting about what happened that day and celebrate the men and women who sacrificed themselves then to save a life.   Remember the sacrifice that happens every day by the people serving in the armed forces.   The ones who serve thousands of miles from their homes so we can feel safe in our own.  I try to remember the first responders who went into the towers, pulled people out and didn’t think twice before running back into the buildings.   You could have told them the buildings were collapsing in 5 minutes, and they would tell you I can get somebody out in 4 minutes.   They are the true heroes.   Certain people become firefighters or cops and are kind of brave.   Others are willing to put everything on the line to save another.   That’s sacrifice.  The courage to run in when so many are running away.   That is what I try to remember on this day.

That’s all I got.  Keep living.  Respect the privilege that we have today.  Living is a privilege.  Death is a conclusion.  I’ll never forget what happened that day or the heroic deeds that defined it.  We aren’t perfect but I hold a belief that to this day there are more good people than bad.   I could be wrong.  I could be right.  I will never know.  I do know that when Vinny gets older I’m taking him to NYC to show him what happened.  Let him see the thousands of names on the memorial fountains.   Describe to him what real courage is.  Those are questions I will be ready to answer.   As a son, father, brother, and husband, that is my right.

Sincerely,

Dan Buffa

 

The Golden Brett Returns

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I remember the St. Louis Post Dispatch’s sports cover when Brett Hull left the Blues.  A comic photo of him wearing a Stars uniform.   Hull left the Blues because he couldn’t find a way to fit into Joel Quennville’s system.  It was written up as a mutual parting, but as Brett Hull said today in his press conference at Scottrade Center in downtown St. Louis where he was announced as the club’s new Executive Vice President, he didn’t want to leave.  Hull’s last season with the Note ended in 1998 where he scored 27 goals and collected 45 assists as he transitioned from goal scorer to a versatile threat.  We all know the rest.  Hull went on to win two Stanley Cups(Dallas, Detroit) but his legacy stayed with the Blues.  He changed hockey in this town when he arrived in the late 1980′s and scored 41 goals in 1988-89.  He lit the fire that rebooted the shaky tendencies of the foundation off Oakland Avenue at the old barn.   Wile bitterness marked his exit, his return was showered in acclaim and warm authentic feeling.

Hull took the stage Monday night to take his new front office role and quickly reminded us of the greatness that represented his candidness with the club for so many years.  If you think Lance Berkman is blunt with reporters, he is playing with Hull’s playbook.   Assessing his new duties with saucy humor, Hull pointed out the reasons he was brought in.  ”I need to sell the remaining 16 luxury suites.”   His impact here will hit harder than that.   Hull won’t be directly involved with player personnel but his voice will be heard.  His intellect and knowledge got him this job as well as the face to reformat over the franchise press junkets.

I grew up watching Hull put goals in the back of the net.  I wish upon more than a few stars that he could get into hockey shape and get out there and show these younger talents how to truly become a sniper.  A well known lethal weapon that lights the lamp more than not.  Hull didn’t miss the net that often.  He was truly great.  Since he isn’t playing anymore, this role suits him and this team.   Tom Stillman is the rare owner who understands what a team needs and how to reengage a fan base.  He is sincere and not just another suit with empty promises.  Stillman, together with general manager Doug Armstrong and head coach Ken Hitchcock, are driven to score this town a cup.

While he is unable to score goals or suit up these days, Brett Hull is a giant step in the Cup Crazy direction.   The Blues front office, long known for being maddeningly inconsistent, is really taking shape and turning into a no-nonsense crew.  The Blues season is almost a month away.

-DLB

Cards Need to Maintain Focus

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I would love to sit here and pour sweet kettle corn over the Cardinals.  There are times in a baseball season where restraint is required and this is one of them.   The Cards swept the Pittsburgh Pirates over the weekend.  It was great, energized Cardinal Nation and reminded us what the team can do when firing on ALL cylinders.  Things went right this weekend.  Will they continue that way?  There is no telling what will happen tonight but first, let’s look back the glorious weekend that took place at Busch Stadium downtown.

Their starting pitching was stellar, allowing a run in 20 innings.  Joe Kelly was his usual solid self.  Adam Wainwright returned to ace form with a dominating 7 innings on Saturday.  However, the biggest surprise came from rookie Michael Wacha on Sunday as he brought out the brooms in shutting out the Pirates for 7 innings.  The rookie hasn’t allowed a run in 2 starts against the two teams who are currently engaged in a dogfight with his ballclub.

Wacha was filthy on Sunday.  He made veterans like Andrew McCutchen shake his head after striking out.   The Pirates couldn’t do anything with the kid’s overhand delivery.   When he went into his windup, The Bucs saw a 97 mph sledgehammer coming towards them and couldn’t put a clean swing on the ball.   They hit some balls hard and well but everything found a defensive glove.   Wacha doesn’t completely fool hitters but he throws them off with his unfiltered delivery and ability to go from the 97 mph gas to the 80 mph breaking ball.   Like I said, he is downright dirty good on a mound.

The entire team played with a confident flair that has been missing for a long time.  They didn’t score over 10 runs in all three games and demolish the Pirates.  They simply dominated every night and didn’t allow them to breathe for too long.   We got the lead first and kept it due to solid starting, an engaged offense and a tiring if effective bullpen.  This wasn’t the deflated Cards who could only muster single game victories in Pittsburgh or require extra innings and a Starlin Marte drop to win a series at home.  The Cards came into the series down 1.5 games and left it ahead in the division by the same margin.   We flipped the switch.  The question is, can we keep it that way?  Can the Cardinals sustain this loving feeling or will they wilt sooner rather than later?  This 2013 team has shown the ability to pull a 360 from game to game.   They score a dramatic victory and then get beat handily the next day.  How do we react to this epic sweep?

Can David Freese and Pete Kozma continue their sudden September resurgence?  They collected hits over the weekend series that have been missing for months.   Freese got around on inside fastballs.  Kozma didn’t strike out once and drove in 3 runners.  Pete felt a boulder drop off his shoulders on Sunday when he laced an RBI double into left center and didn’t see 1,001 tweets announce him as the most wanted man in Cardinal nation.  Will it last?  If these two lost causes can produce more, the loss of RBI machine Allen Craig won’t feel like an atomic bomb was dropped on Busch Stadium this month.

Waino fixed his tell that allowed The Reds to unload on him.   It felt righteous out there on Saturday as he tossed curves at a deep lineup and saw bodies become anatomical pretzels and minds rewired.   There had to be a reason he was so bad last week.   The team’s standing general, Chris Carpenter, spotted a tell and informed Waino about it.  The ace fixed his methods and got back to collecting zeroes from other teams.

Matt Carpenter deserves consideration for not just the MVP of the Cards but the entire National League.   Carp is a classic talent and as versatile as any.   He has 48 doubles, over 175 hits, 56 multi-hit games, and an on base percentage that makes him highly valuable.   There is no crack in his armor.  He had a rough July but bounced back in August.  He is a long term star for this team.  Home grown.

Remember, stay cautious.   Don’t take this series for an extended celebration.  Drop the date off, kiss it and move on.   There are 19 games left against mostly feeble teams but the division is far from won.   The Cards need to be consistent now that the majority of their games come at Busch and against the Brewers, Mariners, and Cubs.   The only team that can hurt the Cards are themselves.  If we end up in the wildcard game, it was by our own hand.   That game isn’t desirable.  If we get the Pirates, it comes at Pittsburgh.   If it is the Reds, we get them at Busch.   Let’s do this.  Avoid that scenario by winning at least 10 of the remaining 19 games and staying strong.

The 2011 and 2012 teams didn’t slow down until they were finished or simply outplayed.  The 2013 team has enough talent to make it to the World Series because unlike other teams requiring trades and waiver deals to beef up their rosters, the Cards turned to doors within their own organization.  We have guys like Wacha, Carlos Martinez and Tyler Lyons to fix the leak in any rotation problem.  We have Matt Adams to replace Craig.  We have September heroes who are starting to put on their ass kicking boots.

Can the rotation stay up?  What will Lance Lynn do on Wednesday?   What will Shelby Miller do when his innings load increases by 12-18 more innings?  Will Martinez ever get his leash taken off?  The baby oil hasn’t left Baby Carlos yet and it could be an issue if further deficiencies occur.  Mike Matheny is starting to understand what his young guns can do.  He stood by Lynn to give him one more try while general manager John Mozelaik compared the mentally cloudy righthander to Jack Nicholson from One Flew Over The Cuckoo’s Nest.  Matheny has to be strict and reactive.

The fan base must be patient and smart.  Don’t get too worked up over 3 wins in a row and don’t freak out if the Brewers and Mariners find a way to beat us this week.   Keep watching.  Keep supporting.   Keep your head up and intact.   The baseball season is entering that final push to the playoffs.   It’s grind time.  Can the Cards maintain the heat?

For more of my thoughts, go to my website, doseofbuffa.com.  Until next time, thanks for reading.

-D. Buffa

Rams Suddenly Comeback Kings

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Sometimes change comes in different forms, especially in sports.   It takes longer to notice than usual and even challenges your judgement.  As I watched the season opener of the St. Louis Rams, bad nightmares came back into my head.  Horrible penalties.  Broken down drives.  Secondary breakdowns.  Bad fumbles.   For some reason, I wanted to check the sideline for Scott Linehan feeling for the hair that had fallen from his head or Steve Spagnuolo on his knees desperately looking for a positive spin.  I looked for the various offensive coordinators that have tried to hustle fans into thinking touchdowns weren’t extinct but I would need a lineup card.  What were these band of misfit toys?

In the first 3 quarters of the football game, the Arizona Cardinals, equipped with a quarterback who can hit receivers and make quick reads, were making their move.  A 13-10 Rams lead was suddenly a 24-13 Cardinals march.  Like the cold water bottle lying in the middle of the desert, Carson Palmer flipped the switch on these Arizona receivers and made them fantasy hopefuls against our defenders at times.

At this time in the past 6 years, the Rams would fold up and die in front of their home crowd.   For years, the team punished out better judgement and made fools out of us for telling others they were our team no matter what.   As I struggled for hope yesterday, I remembered something.  Jeff Fisher is on that sideline.  Sam Bradford is out there and looks like The Sundance Kid before he stepped out in front of those guns.   Fearless and ready to lead instead of shell shocked.   This team looked different.  Who were these quick receivers catching passes and stretching the defense?  Who was the mini me version of Steven Jackson at tailback?  Who is that monstrous playmaking pencil charity producing tight end who makes Antonio Gates look like a lazy security guard?   The 2013 Rams are still a bloody mess readers but the one thing they aren’t coming to close to be calling is quitters.

The defense tightened up and starting getting to Palmer.  I am sure if you approached Palmer in a restaurant this week and suddenly said the name Robert Quinn, Carson would duck beneath a table.  Quinn had 3 sacks and a fumble recovery.  He rocked the veteran quarterback’s body and mind.   James Laurinaitis stuffed the run and gave the birds nowhere to go.  The secondary broke up a few passes.

And then, the offense engaged and took over, scoring 14 unanswered points, led by Bradford’s ability to play great 4th quarter football.   The kid completes passes, and suddenly showing an ability to move in the pocket and not freeze up during a pass rush.   At least three times, Bradford stepped up in the pocket and ran around and made a play.  On a late and vital two point conversion, he ran right up the gut for the extra points.   Tavon Austin on a post route.  Brian Quick on a slant.  Chris Givens anywhere Arizona future hall of famer Patrick Petersen wasn’t.   The real star of the day belonged to the biggest off season acquisition in my mind.    A man named Cook.

After fumbling a sure touchdown in the first quarter, Cook collected 2 touchdowns and over 120 yards receiving.   A man with the body of a semi truck and the breakaway ability of a Ram, Cook sliced and diced Cardinals defenders.   After coming up lame in his first real attempt at a touchdown, Cook finished strong like the rest of the team.   He is a game changing tight end and at that position, a cornerstone talent that may end up with better stats than Ricky Proehl.

The biggest difference I saw was the coaches ability to turn things up a notch in the second half instead of staying plain jane.  For the first three quarters, the offense was slightly quicker but lacked creativity.   Defenses could easily keep this in check.   Brian Schottenheimer unleashed a fresher set of plays that required daring playmakers.   Fisher tightened up the defense and let his coaches go to work.  The coaching staff adjusted to adversity and that is a first in years.

In short, the Rams took charge.  They didn’t welt and die in the spotlight of heightened expectations.  They rose up out of the ashes.  They came together and beat a divisional opponent.  This will mean a lot later when the race tightens up and this team looks for the flicker of hope in the dog days of the winter.  When things get cold and dry in a few months, this team will remember the win in the burning heat of the kickoff the season.  Unlike last year in Detroit, the St. Louis Rams got busy late instead of settling for a good effort.

There were problems.  Too many penalties after the whistle.   Cornerback Cortland Finnegan(a Fisher loyalist) committed two personal fouls that were simply heinous.  This was the bad side of Mr. Finnegan, a well known agitator with a history of losing his edge when desperately trying to get under the skin of opposing receivers.  For one game, he was trying to be Richie Incognito, the famous hothead who negated a long Steven Jackson run years ago after smacking a man’s helmet clean off.  Finnegan also got burned by Larry Fitzgerald, which isn’t as bad as the personal fouls.  Plenty of corners find themselves on the wrong side of Fitz, who looks rehabilitated with Palmer.  However, Finnegan has to be smarter.  He stood out the most in the overall lapses.  The Cook fumble and Bradford tipped pass(should have NEVER been thrown) for a pick 6 are also there.  These are real problems that could cause trouble down the road if not handled.

All mistakes aside, this group of football hounds smelt blood in the 4th quarter on Sunday and fought out a victory.  The Rams are 1-0.  Don’t go crazy yet.  There are 15 weeks to go.  Atlanta and Dallas await this team in the coming weeks.

For more of my thoughts, go to my site, http://www.doseofbuffa.com.

-Dan L. Buffa

@buffa82 on twitter

archcitysports.com

unitedcardinalbloggers.com

film-addict.com

 

10 Things About the 2013 St. Louis Rams

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It’s a beautiful time of the year for St. Louis sports fans.  Summer hitting its peak before fall enters the equation.   Leaves start popping up.  Mowing the grass ceases to to exist on your chores list.  And, football begins.   The Cardinals are in playoff push mode, but the Rams are just getting started.   Blues hockey less than a month away.   It’s the time of year where the sport merge if only for a few weeks or days.   Being a die hard baseball fan, it’s hard to think too hard about The St. Louis Rams in August, but as the season rolls around I gather my data, put together a few blunt thoughts and share them with the rest.   Here are 10 things about the Rams to look forward to, beware and generally expect.   I don’t like predictions.  I save those for bookies and the casino junkies with their mortgage payment in their hands.  I provide expectations based off what I see and what I expect to happen in the coming season.  Let’s start.

1.  Sam Bradford’s time is now.   Yeah, it’s been said a few times but I’m making it clear.  Sam needs to take this car out for a long drive.  He’s got protection in Jake Long, a new batch of wide receiver toys and most importantly, a healthy medical chart from his trainers.  With so many vital bodies falling around the NFL, the Rams made it out clean.  No big injuries.  No problem.  Bradford is ready to roll.  If you keep your ear to the paper and internet, you’ll find out people are fed up with the Oklahoma kid.   They say he is a bust.  No good.  Why didn’t we take Robert Griffin III and those shaky knees in that draft?   Well, wake up and get smart my friends.   Sam Bradford is entering the first year where he is expected to be produce very good things.   He has the same offensive coordinator from a previous season for the first time.   He is healthy and knows the playbook.   He actually has targets to throw to that aren’t named Danny Amendola.   Bradford isn’t a bust.  He just needed some consistency from his coaching staff and a new set of toys to throw to.   After being sacked 105 times in 42 games, Bradford has Long to protect him.  It would be nice seeing what he can do off his back.   He has a tight end in Jared Cook that can make plays.  Tavon Austin, Chris Givens, and Brian Quick are among the targets.   It’s fair to expect more from a #1 draft pick who was pegged to lead this franchise out of the gutter.  It’s wrong to ignore the details.  For his career, Bradford has decent to average numbers.   However, when healthy, Bradford has the potential to be above average.   This team is his own squad now with Steven Jackson gone.  The playbook revolves around his arm and not Jackson’s legs.  Bradford’s 4th season will reveal to us what the kid is made of.   His staff is young but fast.  He is a book smart all business no play mind.  If you think Bradford isn’t ready to win, you aren’t watching the tape.  Sam Bradford is set to roll.  This team is framed around his potential for the first time in 3 plus seasons.  I am not 100 percent sold on Bradford and I feel few are in this town but don’t ride him away yet.  He does hold onto the ball too long and had trouble with the deep ball, but slowly those things are improving.  We gave him the time and his room to shine is now.  This is his team.  Can he lead it?

2.  The young arsenal of receivers will provide Bradford with many versatile targets.  Austin was selected 6th overall for his ability to elude defenders and make quick breaks in the open field.  He’s a game changer.  Quick is your downfield high target.   Givens had an impressive rookie season and only figures to improve.  Stedman Bailey is another threat.  Cook is a big body who plays tight end but can make plays like a receiver.  The only drawback of this group is their age.  There’s little experience among the lot but that also creates problems for the defense.   Rookies carry their own bag of tricks.  If anything, this group will be exciting.

3.  Running back is a questionable area for a few reasons.   Darryl Richardson was solid for a few games in 2012 before defenders found him down below and started stuffing him before he could get his legs moving.  Richardson is a little back without the power to move bodies forward.   Is he really a starter or will his wear down early?  Can Isiah Pead hold onto the ball and make plays when inserted into the lineup?   Will we see Zach Stacy?  This is the biggest question mark and one that leaves you puzzled.   All the Jackson haters can now rest their anger on a trio of shoulders.  Chase Reynolds and Benny Cunningham are also on the depth chart but they leave little background to get excited about.   The running backs and wide receivers are exciting on paper but have little backbone to base an opinion on.   Who will take over this job or will it be a group of producers?   If it’s one guy, who is the smasher?  If it’s earth, wind and fire, then name  the bodies.   Confusion fills the mind here.   If you can’t run the ball, you have to be putting a large amount of confidence in your receivers getting the job done.  Lots of flash here.  How much substance?

4.  The identity of the offense.  The playbook is under wraps.   What is up Fisher and Schotty’s sleeve this year?   Both LOVE to run the ball but they have no proven #1 back.   Will they open up the passing game and hand the keys to Sam?  Conservative or aggressive?    What is the thesis statement of this movement?   The preseason showed little to none in the true plays department.    Once opened up, what is the identity of this offense?

5.  The defense has a high ceiling of potential and only foolhardy off field antics can get in the way of greatness.   Chris Long and Robert Quinn create the most underrated defensive end tag team in the NFC and Michael Brockers only got better at stuffing the run as 2012 went on.   Kendall Langfold is a sneaky body who can make a big play.  William Hayes and Eugene Sims are solid 3rd down defenders.   The linebacking crew is led once again by tackle machine James Lauranaitis and he is joined by returning veteran Will Witherspoon and the raw talent of Alec Ogletree.   Fisher took a gamble on Ogletree’s head because his ability was off the charts.   You saw it in the preseason when he created two turnovers against Denver and made huge plays.   Sure, he can miss an assignment and needs to learn the whole playbook but the potential is infinite for Alec.  Cortland Finnegan and Janoris Jenkins will get their fair share of takeaways but most take away the big play from the defense.   The safety position isn’t strong but can hold steady if Darian Stewart can stand up straight and not break down early.    If the raw talent, good behavior and skill sets can mesh well on this squad, the Rams will once again win some games on defense.

6.  The offensive line looks solid for the first time in years.   Long sits at left tackle with Roger Saffold at right tackle and in between you have the monstrous force of Harvey Dahl and the healthy body of Scott Wells as well as Chris Williams.   If this crew can keep Bradford upright more often than not, and I think they can, the offense won’t need magic from their inexperienced group of playmakers.   The most underappreciated spot in the league in pass blockers and run protectors.   You won’t see Dahl on a Madden cover but if he stuff the interior defensive line of opposing teams, Richardson and Stacy can find holes.   If Long keeps the big pass rushers off Bradford, big throws can happen.  It’s as simple as that.  If the QB is in constant trouble, the offense will flat line and the defense will break and games will be lost.

7.  Special teams didn’t look too shabby in the preseason but the real question is this.  Will Austin change the Rams return game and give them a threat to run the ball back?  It’s been a long time since Tony Horne rocked the house of the Ed Dome and one of Tavon’s attributes was his ability to return kickoffs and punts.   The unit didn’t allow too many huge returns and if the offensive end of the group can provide some fireworks, the pressures slips off Bradford’s shoulders just a little more.  Will the Rams special teams department be relevant again?

8.  It’s hard to question the commitment of owner Stan Kroneke.  He spent big dollars on Jeff Fisher and Les Snead and paid the money to bring in playmakers like Finnegan, Long and Cook to stabilize the operation.   He is an active business man and has provided the resources to make them successful.    Don’t worry about the team’s future in St. Louis right now.  Worry about playing football.   Kroneke didn’t fight to have full ownership of this team to run them out of a town he has held ties to for over 15 years.  He did his part to push this team and now the team needs to respond.

9.  That schedule allows the Rams to make a statement in their division early.  We face the Cards, 49ers, and Seahawks at the Ed Dome first in the first half of the season.   We get a firm test at Atlanta in week 2 and in Dallas in week 3 and in Indianapolis in week 10.   However, I don’t see many games that are completely out of the realm of victory.   We get the Bears and Saints at home.   We travel to Carolina and Houston but get Tampa Bay and Jacksonville at home.  Unlike getting New England in London or Aaron Rodgers at home, the Rams have a chance to be competitive in every one of these games.   Houston has a suspect defense.  We proved our mettle against our divisional foes last year.   We nearly beat Tampa Bay in their house.   We will have to deal with Cam Newton in his own temple but we don’t have to travel to Soldier Field to make Jay Cutler’s life miserable.   The Saints have no defense so that will be an offensive show.  Every game provides an opportunity to win.

10.  My expectation for this team.   9-7 record.  I could shoot it right down the middle but I’m not.  I want improvement but I expect some fireworks and if they let me down, I won’t feel as bad as I did during the Linehan-Spagnuolo era.   This team has kissed the bottom of the barrel too many times for me to get mad about them falling short of an expectation.   We saw this team play good football in 2012.  I expect better in 2013 with the same coaches, new fresh young talent, stronger O-line and the defense remaining a force.   Looking at the schedule, I think this team can win 9 games.  Call me crazy because it’s been done before.

Kickoff is tomorrow at 3:15 on FOX.  Two hours of baseball and then Rams football….and baseball.   The Rams start the season at home against an Arizona team that finally found a quarterback in Carson Palmer.  They will not be a pushover but neither are the Rams.  It’s exciting to come into a St. Louis football season and expect more wins than losses.  Goodbye dismal depravity.    Hello competitive action.

The Curious Cases of Joe Kelly and Adam Wainwright

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The narrative is messed up here.  At this time of the season for the Redbirds, the starter all would vote on in April to be carrying the team at this time is a man named Adam Wainwright.  He’s big, strong, dominating and recklessly brilliant on the mound.   He’s no-bullshit on the mound.  He’s fiercely confident and clears out the noise.   Off the mound, he’s funny, likes to dance, gets Jake Westbrook to move those old Indiana Jones hips, and claims to be an expert on barbecue.   Waino is the perfect baseball cover boy.  He goes against smoking, participates in charity, raises money through fantasy football and adheres himself to all crowds.

So why is this narrative impaired and crooked at the moment?  Joe Kelly, the unwanted man in May and someone who only found his way when Chris “General” Carpenter finally shut down his rehab mission.   Joe Kelly, the computer nerd who has a wickedly sharp sense of humor and a suspiciously sneaky high octane fastball to go with a deadly changeup.  Kelly, the unlikely hero from last year who mopped up Lance Lynn’s mess and politely went to the bullpen in September of 2012 when Lynn returned for his salvation.   Joe Kelly is the ace of this rotation during this maddening stretch run.   He doesn’t just beat teams.  He beats good teams.  He doesn’t just win games.  He wins important games.  He stops losing streaks and makes opposing teams scratch their heads.  They put runners on base against Joe, load the guns and fire blanks as Kelly escapes the inning with a strikeout.   Kelly is the unlikely hero of this rotation right now and without his 8 wins the team would be behind the Reds and sitting in a disappointing lake of crimson.  Kelly is amazing and a great story because in three months when trade talks bloom and the 2014 rotation starts to take shape, Kelly may find himself on the outside again.   Just wait.  Deep playoff run or not, Kelly will have to fight his way into next year’s rotation.   He was put up against Shelby Miller this past spring and didn’t lose via his pitching stats.   He lost before he threw a pitch.   Carpenter and Jaime Garcia bit the grass and Kelly couldn’t find his way into the rotation.   As Bernie Miklasz put it, he was the Porsche parked in the garage that only went on drives on night for no reason.

In April and May, Kelly threw 18.2 innings combined.  In June, he made 2 spot starts and pitched 5.1 innings in mop up duty for Shelby Miller in Oakland.   In July, he made threw starts due to the break and the need for Matheny to keep his arm sheltered when he wasn’t starting.  He won a game and got beat up by Miami and finished with an ERA of 2.55 for the month.   In August, Kelly didn’t leave any question and quickly made a statement.   On August 1st, with the Cards looking at a 5 game sweep, Kelly pitched 6.1 innings and beat the Pirates.  The rest has been laid out but let me give you the footnotes.   He didn’t beat scrubs in this stretch.   He beat the Dodgers, Reds, Braves and shut down the Pirates with victories in 3 games.   Let me repeat that.  Against a team that has driven the rest of the Cards rotation mad for the past month, Kelly has defeated 3 times since the beginning of August.   In back to back starts in September, Kelly has beaten the Bucs twice, pitched 12 innings, allowed 2 runs, struck out 9, walked 5 and threw 209 pitches.    Pittsburgh doesn’t like Joe Kelly.

Wainwright, the other side of the scale, troubled and misguided at the moment, will lean on his well earned pedigree and try to silence the critics and pitch well tonight.    As a fan, you will find out quick if Waino has it or not.  He gets hit hard early if he is off.  His curve will spin outside.  His cutter will be as straight as a Salas fastball.   He will look mean and fierce, but his pitches will be launched.  And trust me that the Pirates will be studying tape on Waino, going over his last two starts and finding out what the Reds are doing to the ace.  Waino’s problem is simple.  Pitch execution.  As a man who taught younger pitchers how to not tip their pitches and is under the watchful eye of Carpenter, I refuse to believe Waino is tipping.   It’s a tired arm issue.   It’s a poor execution against great hitters dilemma.  Waino has to be better because this Pirates lineup is stacked.   Why can’t he do something that Kelly has done 3 times in a month?  My friends, that is the greatness of baseball.   Little men rise up and surprise and older vets can fall as well.   Bad things happen to good pitches in a 162 game season.  The greatness of this game lies in its stiffening endurance.   I believe Waino will survive.  I believe he will find something tonight, react, pitch well and give us a chance to win the game.   This unlikely position Waino and Kelly are in isn’t bad for business.  It’s a realization that Kelly is a greater pitcher than most give him credit for.  The sabermetrics crowd are fooled by his work but the one thing that can’t be measured on Brooks Baseball and Fangraphs is how a pitcher reacts mentally in a tough situation.   With men on base and the stakes high, Kelly does his best pitching.   He likes to light the fires and get the room burning, but he is really good with a hose.  Look at the first inning last night.  Bases loaded, two out, Cardinal Killer Pedro Alvarez at the plate looking to do serious damage.   Kelly buckles down, makes a good pitch and gets a groundout.  Inning over.  Cards score 5 unanswered runs before running off with the game.  If Kelly gets solved there, the rest of the night could have been different.  This game is more temperamental and emotional that we want to give it credit for.   One moment can decide a game sometimes.   I don’t believe that was the case last night but Kelly always gives the offense a chance.   He has been the Most Unlikely Valuable Player of the second half.   The MUVP!  New award.

A Few Random Notes on the Team before I shove off for some movie work-

*The loss of Allen Craig is potentially hazardous to an enigmatic offense.   It does provide Matt Adams with an opportunity to play every day but the 2013 Big City everyday menu comes down to a strikeout or a home run with singles mixed in.   Losing Craig is bad news, even if it is for 2-3 weeks.    He has 97 RBI and hits .452 with runners in scoring position.   He can play RF and 1B respectfully and is a hit machine.   You can’t make hitters as clutch as Craig.   He is a destroyer who is on the bench and the updates on his injury are scary.  It’s not a fracture but it could be awhile before he comes back.  Well, stab me in the stomach already.   Craig’s right foot is still swollen from a weird turn at first base on Wednesday and he is in a walking boot.   Those two things have to disappear and then Craig can take swings and try to come back.   It’s going to be painful.   The injury was to his right foot, his planting foot which gives him his power.  It’s a good thing he can reach out and poke 2 run singles to left and right but still scary thinking how long he can play with it.  What is his pain tolerance and how effective can he be?  Part of me wants him to get as healthy as possible before returning.  Pinch hit duty at first.  This is where the DH comes into play in the AL.  Players nursing leg/foot injuries.   Craig’s role down the stretch is as important as any other issue with this team.

*Matt Carpenter makes a strong case for the MVP of this team in 2013.   Sorry Yadi Molina.  You are the best and deep down arguably the MVP but Carp Jr. challenges the theory.  He provided us with a legit leadoff hitter.  He plays multiple positions that range from 2B to the outfield.   He has 172 hits and 109 runs scored on September 7th.   He has collected over 60 multi-hit games and has 47 doubles and 7 triples.   His on base percentage is .385 so pitchers really hate him.  His batting average has been a steady .315-.325 all season long.   He also has driven in 68 runners and has 10 home runs.   The guy has been a deal breaker all year.   He gets on base for Craig and others to drive him in and made a smooth transition to 2nd base.  He’s pretty great and still young and cheap.

*That Edward Mujica guy is 36-39 in save opportunities.   Not bad for a guy who game over in a trade from Miami and created more puzzlement than excitement.  I feel good for Eddie and hope he gets paid well in the coming years for his newfound ability.  I don’t think he will ever be as good as he has been this season though.

*I really hate the warning game that the Umpires play when a batter is hit in a blow out game.   Molina got knocked down last night which prompted the ump to warn the pitcher.  John Axford enters the game, hits a batter and gets tossed.  It changes the game because no one can pitch inside and be effective.  It’s a handicap.   It’s stupid and unneeded most of the time.  Why do it unless you know for sure the pitch was thrown on purpose.  I do applaud Axford for getting his two cents in before leaving.

*David Freese isn’t getting any better folks.  Consider this my latest update that the former All Star is slipping.  His defense is cracking and his bat is weak.   He launched a 420 foot home run in Cincinnati on Thursday but hasn’t done much else this week.  He’s hitting .214 in his last 10 games.  He’s struck out 89 times this year.  He is slugging .377.   His power numbers are worse than Jon Jay.   Kolten Wong’s bat needs seasoning and at bats which means in my eyes Freese is seeing less playing time down the stretch.  Let his previously clutch bat come off the bench.  Sad but true.

*Lance Lynn and Jake Westbrook can politely leave the team now.  Lynn has a 4.56 ERA since the start of July and has thrown 5 horrible starts in a row.   He is a child on the mound, will NOT improve and can only cost this team wins.  Mozelaik didn’t admit point blank but defined insanity when talking about Lynn getting the start against Milwaukee next week.  For me, that’s the final straw.  Facing a bad team at home, if he falters, cut his check and kick him out to the bullpen.    Westbrook came back last night and allowed 3 earned runs in 1.1 innings of work.  Save me the bad luck talk and oddly placed ground balls.   Westbrook is garbage and ugly to watch.   He isn’t a good bullpen arm and will only get ripped apart in the rotation.   September is the time to cut fat from your lean team and Lynn and Westbrook are the overcooked fatty ribs at the barbecue.   Insert Tyler Lyons and Carlos Martinez into their roles immediately and tell me good things won’t happen.   Sticking with Lynn and Jake is like saying it’s okay to carry dynamite through a burning building.

*I agree that bench is weak and the Craig injury makes it look even weaker.  With Adams off the bench, you have Brock Petersen, Adron Chambers, Ryan Jackson, Aubrey Perez and Shane Robinson.   A few more sure but no real threats.   I find it hard to believe Mozelaik couldn’t have found some bench support in August to create depth just in case Beltran’s back acted up, Molina’s knee broke down again or Craig suffered another weird injury(remember him crashing into the fence in RF in Houston in 2011).   There isn’t a lot of depth on the bench.

I think I’ve worn out my welcome here.   2,000 words on the rogues in red.   Thanks for reading and Go Cards!

-Dan Buffa

@buffa82 on twitter

United Cardinal Bloggers

Arch City Sports

http://www.doseofbuffa.com

September, Cardinals and Darwinism

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Every baseball team goes through a pressure cooker during a season and finds themselves resorting back to their original strengths.   The evolution of a 162 game season shares its own blend of rewards and risks for any given team.   When I think of a team in September, I think of Charles Darwin’s theory of natural selection.   Over 30 teams play competitive baseball for the first 5 months before September arrives and an outline takes shape.   By no means is a stone pencil used to craft a playoff schedule, but as September rolls around the weak are shoved to the side and the strongest carry on.   Sometimes, the best team with shiniest resume on paper falls off to the side while other slightly weaker teams overachieve and blend together for great baseball.   Every September carries a different trait for each team and for the St. Louis Cardinals the past few seasons it’s all about survival.   Staying alive long enough to win the opportunity to play meaningful October baseball.   5 months of climbing and you jump off the ladder into a coliseum where other teams fight for their spot.  Darwin’s idea was the strongest will survive and that applies directly to baseball because the season is long, the fights are many and the endurance is key.   What happens to the Cardinals this month?  Do we fall to the side while a weaker injury deprived team like the Reds runs past?  Do the jump start Pirates, full of waiver wire moves and added power, throw us to the ground?   Or do we rise up, smack them down and remind the teams of their place in The NL Central.   The Cards are gunning for a division title, something they haven’t won in 4 years.  They have been wild card bunnies for their two miraculous runs in 2011 and 2012.  They have done things the hardest way possible and made their fans sweat.   What route do they take in 2013?  The wild card format is trickier because getting a spot there doesn’t ensure a series.  You have to hope and pray all the baseball gods are aligned in your favor and support you  in ONE GAME.   Remember the Atlanta game a year ago?  The Kozma Infield Fly drop, the Medlen start, the Braves near comeback which was cut short by a Motte heater settled in the stomach like a great bowl of chili.  I would prefer to not go through that again.  The Cardinals are good enough to win the division and I am going to present and answer 6 questions.   I’ve debated how I could write this playoff bound run launching pad blog for 2 days now and decided to throw popular questions to the walls and have my opinion swat them away.  Let’s go.

What is wrong with the big and strong Adam Wainwright?  

For the first time in years, I threw my head into sabermetrics and looked for reasons that could describe the second half of Adam Wainwright’s season.   He is a big and strong(Waino’s words and he is right) pitcher who three weeks ago was putting together a Cy Young caliber season but suddenly hit a rut.   His pitches seemed to be more hittable.  His curve or spun out of the zone.  His cutter didn’t do much cutting at all.   His sinker was smash appropriate.   His changeup wasn’t effective.   Take away his heroic start against Atlanta where he threw 128 pitches and a complete game and much of August and part of July is troubling for the ace of our staff.   People react so indifferently to an attack on Waino.   It’s like we should shake off his consistently trivial outings and carry on like nothing is happening to the most important pitcher on our staff.   It’s worth an investigation if you truly care and want to see if this is second half exhaustion, a tipping pitches case or general failure to get outs.   Let’s take a look.

First, the more general look at his basic stats.   His last 10 starts give a lot of answers.   When Waino was attacked by the Reds at Busch last week, I thought back to the last time he was hit so hard and so early at home and it came on July 14th against the Cubs where he gave up 4 first inning runs before recovering and pitching 6 innings.  Including that start, since the All Star Break, Wainwright is 3-4 with a 4.91 ERA.  He has walked 15 batters in his last 10 starts.   He walked a total of 14 in his first 19 starts.  He has allowed 4 earned runs or more in 4 of those starts.  He hasn’t pitched horrible in every outing.  He pitched good enough to win in Atlanta and at home against the Dodgers.   He was rocked by Pittsburgh in that horrible series a month ago.  He avenged the losses to CHI and ATL in back to back starts at Wrigley on 8/18 and at home on 8/23.   Then came the Reds starts.   In his last two outings spanning 8 innings, Waino was been hammered for 15 runs, 17 hits, 4 BB and only 5 K.   In every start since the break but the 7/14 outing against the Cubs, Waino had struck out 5 or more batters.  This past week, he isn’t getting strikeouts and when he does they come after the majority of the runs have scored and the opposing lineup is more relaxed.  Waino is giving up more home runs in the second half.  After allowing only 4 HR in the first three months of the season, Waino has allowed 9 in the past 2 months.  His ERA for the month of August alone was 4.78, helped by the 9 earned runs to the Reds last Wednesday.   It’s easy to say Waino hasn’t been the same pitcher he was in the first half and his ability to get back to that form or not may determine if this team can stand tall at the end of the season.  Okay, here’s a deeper breakdown of Waino’s pitches.

Via the elaborate and detailed site Brooks Baseball, Waino is getting torched by lefthanded batters since July 14th as well.   His Whiff percentage is way down and his line drive rate is up.    His curve is still effective against righthanded hitters but the lefties are starting time it bash it.  The swing and miss rate on his curve is down in the past 2 months.   Looking at the batting average against his individual pitches, the curve is still his best pitch with a .219 average.   The cutter has been raked for 5 home runs in his last 10 starts and his sinker is allowing a .350 average.  His four seam fastball isn’t getting torn up but has allowed 5 walks.   His changeup produces hits when its put in play.   Once hitters put the ball in play, the average jumps up for the curveball.  Waino has 32 K’s from his curve but once its put into play or hung, it usually produces a hit with a .375 average.

Conclusion-Whether it’s the pitch counts or general fatigue, decent lefthanded hitters are timing Waino’s secondary pitches, jumping on his first pitch fast ball or waiting for a hanging curve and doing damage.  Overall, he is getting figured out more often than not.  Does this go away with more video or prep?  No.   Waino will have to get out on that mound and be more effective.   He is a professional and a rotation ace.  He is a Cy Young caliber pitcher who is still 15-9 with a 3.14 ERA(jumped from 2.68 in past two starts) with an outstanding K/BB of 182-29 and a WHIP of 1.09.  However, are the 5 complete games coming back to haunt out pitcher?   Lot of pitches for an arm to throw and we all know Waino’s intensity is off the charts in any start.  Yesterday, you could see a Carpenter like menace on the mound and on the base paths.   He is furious and should be.   Does he need to skip a start?  Yes and no.   He starts against the Pirates on Saturday at home.  This is a game which will hold some answers.   The past two starts can be chalked up as the Reds having Carp’s number.  The sandbox of Great American Ballpark fools many hitters.   At home, in the confines of Busch against a newly empowered Pirates lineup, the tests will come hard and fast for Waino.   Next week, he faces the Seattle Mariners at home, a severely weak hitting team that will show if Waino’s struggles are fully grown or only come against superior hitting.  If Brendan Ryan takes our ace deep, it’s time to panic.  Until then, hold up and relax.  Waino is getting beaten up as our most of the Cardinals starters in the past month.  Stay the course and keep an eye on him but don’t deem him dead armed just yet.  The Friday start against Atlanta can’t be forgotten, even if it came against a team without two of its best hitters.   Waino needs a game to settle the score for himself and at home on Saturday could be it.   Next question…(promise with less words)

Is Matt Holliday finally turning it on?

Yes sir.  This isn’t unusual.  Holliday is a strong finisher and always rakes in the last two months of the season.  Slowly but surely, his stats are climbing.  In his last 10 games, Holliday’s white hot bat has slightly cooled but still saw his BA climb from .284 to .287.   He has 18 HR and 74 RBI and his on base percentage is a robust .368.   He also hits very well against the Reds and Pirates, which is great because there are six games left against them this month.   Holliday isn’t having a great season but with 25 games left in the season(yes that’s all folks) he has a chance to at least hit .300, hit 25 HR, and drive in 90-95 runners.   We may call it a down year in the end but as long as he gets hits when we need it and has a great postseason, Holliday’s regular season stats can be taken with a grain of salt.  Unlike most high paid players, Holliday’s actually hustles too.  Small bonus point.   One thing I have noticed lately is Holliday’s double plays have went down in the past 2 weeks.

How much longer can Matheny stay with Lance Lynn?  

Not much longer with newly arrived Memphis hands like Tyler Lyons and Carlos Martinez arriving today.   Lynn has been torched himself for a 4.57 second half earned run average and he had a terrible August.  In his 10 starts, dating back to July 13th, Lynn is 2-6 with a 5.46 ERA and given up 69 hits in just over 59 innings.    He has walked 25 batters to 45 strikeouts over that time period.   His ERA has jumped to 4.29.  He hasn’t been given much run support the past 3 starts which may be revealing his Achilles heel.  A pitcher who has gotten an average of 6.1 runs per start all season shouldn’t have a 4.29 ERA.  Lynn’s worse trait is his two cent heat.  He comes undone easily in innings and recently, his bad starts are defined by one horrible inning.  In a nutshell, Lynn is amazing in April and May but the wheels start to get loose in June and they come off in August.  Two years in a row.  Lynn has 13 wins but a lot of those victories are supported by a big offense.  Remember the game in Miami where a horrible Marlins team tore him up for 6 runs but he got the win because we scored 13 runs.  Lynn can put together a great start, like he did on August 4th against Cincinnati where he pitched 8 innings, struck out 11, walked 2 and only allowed 2 runs on 4 hits.   He strikes out a lot of hitters with that four seam fastball but he gets burned when he doesn’t trust his secondary pitches.  His pitching motion and mechanics can uncork themselves in an inning if things go wrong.  He is talented but mentally short circuited like fellow Cardinal Jaime Garcia.   This can’t be taught or fixed by anyone other than Lynn.  Chris Carpenter can put Lynn through angry pitcher boot camp and still do little to help.  In my eyes, Lynn is trade bait because he has a shiny record covered up by a huge win total but when examined further reveals cracks in his facade.   If you want a first half chief, go for Lance.  As a 32 start pitcher, he is only a decent 3rd or 4th starter.  If he erupts in Cincinnati this week(remember the great outing a month ago), Mike Matheny has to think about plugging in Lyons or Martinez.   Sure, we didn’t envision winning the division without Carpenter, Garcia, Lynn and Westbrook not in the rotation but in 2002 we used 14 starters and went to the NLCS.  Go with the fresh arm and the better choice.  Speaking of moves made for the right reasons, how about Joe Kelly?

Will Joe Kelly be broken?

Looking at his sabermetrics(which I don’t have to present), a man can be perplexed by his greatness.  In 10 starts since July 6th, Kelly is 7-0 with a 2.16 ERA.  He has walked 25 batters in those 10 starts with only 34 strikeouts.   He rarely produces more than 6 innings per start.   He has allowed 53 hits in 58 innings in those 10 starts.   However, Kelly’s genius lies in his ability to pitch out of jams.   When runners get on base and things get murky, Kelly buckles down.  Like Allen Craig with runners in scoring position, Kelly gets deadly the noisiest moments and saves his best pitches for the toughest spots.   You can’t teach that.  Without Kelly, the Cards would obviously be short 7 wins but more importantly, a lot of losing streaks would have continued.   Kelly stopped another one on Sunday at Pittsburgh.  He threw 6 innings and shut down the Pirates after they decimated Shelby Miller and Lynn on Friday and Saturday.  Facing the same lineup, and getting a few good bounces, Kelly shut down the Bucs and salvaged a win and helped the Cards survive.  That is what Kelly does.  He is that cold can of Budweiser Select that gives you the perfect feeling after a long day.  Sure, it’s not as tasty as a honey wheat or thick stout but it quenches your needs and delivers the goods as expected.  Joe Kelly is the second half MVP and the only way that is possible is if his manager finally decides to throw him the keys to a spot in the rotation.   I don’t see Kelly breaking down because he knows how to pitch and get key outs.  He won’t make it look pretty but I expect Kelly to continue to pitch well because of his strong mental makeup.

Who am I most excited about out of the September callups?  

I want to see what Carlos Martinez can do but feel like he has been short circuited in a way with his up and down status all year long.  Martinez has a great talent but hasn’t been given the opportunity to get comfortable.   Lyons, Brock Petersen and Keith Butler will all provide a boost and Kolten Wong is an exciting guy once he gets more at bats but the guy I want to see play is Ryan Jackson at shortstop.   I didn’t think I’d be saying that name in the same sentence as “most excited” but with the need for a boost from the SS position at the moment, Jackson is the guy.   I assumed Oscar Taveras would consume all the excitement but he recovering from ankle surgery.   Say what you want about Jackson’s quick 2012 appearance but he deserves the opportunity to turn the #8 spot in the Cards order into an interesting at bat.   His defense is solid and his bat can only be better than the bench deprived Pete Kozma.   RJ deserves a full audition to see if he can spark this lineup that sputters with Kozma in the lineup.   Pete is as automatic of an out as the pitcher in the past month so its important to find a better player to pair up with Daniel Descalso.   Do you DFA Kozma?  I don’t think so and have definite proof that Matheny wouldn’t pull that trigger but a change is needed.  You can’t go into a September push with that weak of a hitter in your lineup.  Especially if you have a RF in Beltran with a weak back and Yadi with a weak knee.   I would like to see Greg Garcia get rewarded for his strong Memphis season and he can also play shortstop.   I want a solution at SS soon.

Who is the unsung hero the 2013 season?  

Seth Maness, Matt Carpenter, Allen Craig, Edward Mujica and Kelly don’t count.  Why?  They aren’t “unsung” heroes.  Writers, bloggers, fans, and the media have done quite a bit of singing about them.   For example, read my above section on Kelly and the 9,000 other blogs on the other 4 redbirds.  They are great but the man I am looking right now is Shane Robinson.  A utility outfielder who was never more than a pinch runner or 5th outfielder on previous Cardinal teams but this year has taken his game up a notch.   His defense in the outfield is very good.  He goes back on balls well and has good range.  He has a decent arm that doesn’t make stupid throws to home plate that involve 6 bounces(hello Jon Jay).  Robinson has been stronger at the plate as well, hitting .282.   He only has 103 at bats but that just goes to show you how effective is when called upon.  It’s not easy sitting on the bench and suddenly being called upon to contribute.  Robinson hit .252 last year with 166 at bats.   His average is up this year and his on base percentage is .398.   He has 22 walks to only 13 strikeouts.  He knows how to work a count.   He is the unlikely strong candidate to get that spot start in CF or RF and produce with it.   Descalso is a unsung hero candidate to a certain degree but plenty of people appreciate his production and versatility.   Robinson doesn’t get enough credit for his utility work especially because it’s more sparse than DD.

That’s all I got.  I could spend time telling you David Freese needs to get less starts at 3B because he isn’t getting big hits anymore while hitting .235 in his last 10 starts and his defense is unraveling.   I could tell you Kevin Siegrist is as untouchable as Trevor Rosenthal in trade talks.  I could tell you losing Michael Blazek in the Axford trade isn’t surprising because the cost to do business in 2013 is very high, especially for a Cards team with a stack of MLB ready prospects.  I could tell you to hang tough and keep your head up as the Cards rock our internal structure and raise our blood pressure but you know that.  I could tell you baseball is hard to watch because it’s slow, articulate and stressful but that is what makes it great.   I will say this.   The strongest teams with the will to finish what they started in April are the ones worth being scared of in October.  The Cards are strong.  The question is…are they strong enough?  25 games to go.   6 more against the Reds and Pirates.  Two words.  Go Cards!

Thanks for digesting this latest dose of Buffa and come back next time.

-Dan Buffa

Saturday Stream of Consciousness

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Don’t take these words personal.  It’s just one man’s opinion.   The stream of consciousness begins now.  Anyone who prefers perfect structure in their blog reading may want to jump ship right now.  Bringing it via the bullet point.

Sports

  • The Cards haven’t scored a run in 18 innings of play and nearly 4 days.  Think of all the stuff you have done since the Cards last scored on Tuesday night.   Mind boggling. Let that one settle into your cerebellum.  After winning 5 of 6 from the Braves and Reds, the bats have gone silent and our pitching has been bruised.  Adam Wainwright sent fans into a saber-metrics investigation with his 9 earned runs allowed performance and Shelby Miller had a lot of issues with Garrett Jones last night in Pittsburgh.   Jones had been struggling this month before collecting 4 RBI against our young gun.   Francisco Liriano is making the Pirates look like lottery winners with his 3 shutdown performances against the Cards and overall record.  When he pitches, it looks like a golf ball is being thrown towards the plate.  There are times in the season where the ball resembles a beach sized water toy.   Against Liriano, the Cards bats are powerless.  It’s a good thing we faced the familiar A.J. Burnett tonight and a rookie on Sunday.   It’s hard to accept two brutal losses in a row but remember the important part.  Against every Pirates starter other than Liriano, the Cards have done well in their last three Bucs matchups.  There is hope.  In baseball, bad things come in pairs.
  • A fresh question is asking which Lance Lynn will show up today.   The troubled young mentally disturbed hurler hasn’t been that solid in his past 3 starts and needs to settle the score tonight.   If baserunners reach and an umpire doesn’t tie a bow around every pitch Lynn throws, a problem may surface.  How will Lynn handle it?  His biggest demon is himself on a mound in hot temperatures.  One thing people haven’t pointed out often enough is the effect of the temperature on Lynn’s pitching.  Sure he has lost weight this season but stats show that the big man doesn’t fare well in the heat of the summer.  Hot temperatures make certain athletes lose their edge a little, and the sophisticated practices of pitchers make them a prime candidate for mental instability.   How does Lynn finish the season?  It’s about time he takes command of his role on this team before it evaporates.  Don’t get too lost in his win total because it’s misleading.  Take away the 6.2 runs per start of support and his record would be a lot different.
  • Hottest Cardinal hitter?  NOT PETE KOZMA.   I won’t take shots at poor Pete.  He is the most picked on Cardinal since Tino Martinez flunked out at first base and popped up to third base more than any free agent acquisition ever.   Pete is being put into the lineup and doing his best.  He is a .215 hitter and won’t improve unless the minor league guy with the voodoo beads from Bull Durham pays him a visit.  What are the other options?  Ryan Jackson should be here this next week.   He has barely gotten an ounce of opportunity so he needs to see some time at short because he offers the same quality of defense and his bat can’t do any worse than Pete’s.   There’s the wild card in Greg Garcia, who has risen through the ranks of the Cards minor league system, can play shortstop and is hitting well at the moment.  If you are a playoff bound team, a manager can’t put Kozma into this lineup.  Daniel Descalso’s defense isn’t good enough and his bat is streaky so a new body is needed.  Put a new band aide at shortstop.
  • Where would the Cardinals be without Matt Carpenter, Edward Mujica, and Allen Craig’s newfound production this season?  No offense to the true MVP in Yadi, but without those three redefining unlikely results, the Cards are in 3rd place easily right now.  This is the Obvious But Still Credible Statement section.
  • Changing sports, Tim Tebow was released today by the New England Patriots.   Look, I am a Tebow supporter(minus the god worship) but at this point, he may consider changing positions if he wants to play in the NFL for a living.  Sure, he could catch on somewhere else and hold a clipboard in the hope that a starting QB’s knee would be trampled and his backup would get hit by a bus, but the realistic chances for the former Gator Wonder Boy is to consider tight end or fullback.  Why not?  Give it a shot.  I will never forget what he did in Denver.  He took a 1-4 Broncos team and took them to the playoffs and made 4 miraculous comebacks.   He made 3 precise and beautiful throws to upend the Super Bowl probable Pittsburgh Steelers in the playoffs.  Then, the Colts released Peyton Manning, John Elway got a stiffy, pulled in Manning, and Tebow was tossed to the curb.  The Jets, one of the team’s Tebow came back and beat in the 2011 season, traded for him.   Rex Ryan refused to play the guy even when Mark Sanchez forgot which jersey he was throwing to and got hurt.  Instead of entertaining your fanbase with an exciting player, Rex stuck with someone else and Tebow spent a whole season on the sidelines.   Ask me what should have been done and I will say once the Jets knew they were out of the playoffs, it was time to pack the house, rip up the playbook and hand the ball to Tebow.   Why not?  Anyway, The Patriots brought in Tebow this summer but he didn’t play well at all and got released today.   If he doesn’t want to switch positions, then Tim may want to understand that his dream of leading another team in this league could be over.  He isn’t getting any younger and when the Jacksonville Jaguars coach overruled the ownership(who spotted dollar signs in hometown kid Tebow) and refused to sign Tebow, things looked dim for the guy.  If he doesn’t want to switch, please become a coach and not a commentator.   Tebow is an inspirational story who never said a bad word about a coach or other player when he was refused the opportunity.   He is a winner with an emotional maniac intensity on the sideline.  Young players will look up to this guy and may run through a wall for him.  Sooner or later, if he wants to keep his pride and not switch positions, Tebow will be forced with a choice.  I hope he decides to become a coach.   I haven’t played football since high school and I would strap on pads right now and do drills under his command.   Sports is a business and a tough reality but there’s always opportunity if you are smart.  Tebow Rant over.
  • The Rams have a legit shot to win 8 games this year.   Decently soft schedule and an improved younger roster of talented skilled players.   If we can find a way to run the ball, Sam Bradford has a healthy array of WR targets to hit.   The defense is back and strong.  The coaching is only more knowledgeable of their staff and players.   I don’t think the Rams make the playoffs but I do think we reach 8 wins for the first time 2006.
  • Teemu Selanne is coming back to the NHL to his most expected location.   The Anaheim Ducks.   This was a given for any NHL fan.  Selanne likes the Ducks organization and its near his California base and is a team he hasn’t left in quite some time.   I’ve had a faint wish that Selanne would suddenly chose to come to St. Louis because he is exactly what the Blues need.  A feared experienced outsider who can SCORE.   Selanne can still light the lamp 25-30 times and give you a presence that benefits other players.  He has a shot at 700 goals with his comeback(25 needed) and it’s hard not to root for him.  He is one of the last action hero goal scorers in hockey who can still be efficient.  He refuses to get hurt and is one of the coolest cats off the ice.  A wicked accent to boot.  My heart longs for Teemu but he will spend one more season as a DUCK.
  • With all the injuries the NFL has seen this preseason, the Rams made it out okay.  Roger Saffold went down but there are bookies in Vegas who had bets and odds on that already happening.   A lot of NFL teams lost impact wide receivers, offensive lineman and tackles.   The Jets may have lost Sanchez but that is just a week or two early.  The preseason and 2 a day practice zones of July and August provides a lot of opportunity for dark days in training camp.    Luckily, the Rams made it out unscathed.

Movies-The Latest Crumbs from my site, film-addict.com

  • What to see this weekend?  Closed Circuit.  A sly, tightly paced, and well acted British thriller that focuses on government surveillance.  The movie is smart enough to know that this is a real problem and put on a fine exhibit here in this deadly courtroom story.   Eric Bana and Rebecca Hall star but Jim Broadbent has the juiciest scenes.
  • What not to see this weekend?  Getaway.   Alana Hammonds, a critic for my site and a soul I trust, called the movie a horrible experience.   She urges movie goers to leave this one in the “maybe” department.   A throwaway action film with little intrigue.  Her review is better than my setup.  I promise you.  It’s on the site.
  • Do you know the character actor, Adam Scott?  By face you do.  By name, you have no clue.  Read more about him in our character actor spotlight.
  • DVD pick of the week.  MUD, the latest bullet in Matthew McConaughey’s comeback train.   A beautiful film about two kids and their connection with a mysterious wanted man on an island.
  • Trailer of the Week.  McConaughey again in a true story about Ron Woodroff, a man who contracted the AIDS virus in 1986 and started an underground medicine supply since the hospital only gave him 30 days to live.   This trailer will get to you and may net M.M. an Oscar award.
  • DO NOT RENT G.I. JOE: RETALIATION.  This action vehicle with the Rock is plain stupid and a waste of your brain cells.  Have a few beers instead.  Experience will be better.

Music-5 songs to listen to if you want something different.

  • Alabama Shakes-“You Ain’t Alone”(their entire album, Boys and Girls, is worth checking out)
  • The National-“Hard To Find”
  • Of Monsters and Men-“Dirty Paws”
  • Phosphorescent-“Song For Zula”
  • The Civil Wars-“Disarm”

TV-A Few Notes on Shows I watch and A Couple Comments on Ones I don’t

  • The biggest problem with television shows is catching up to the ones you passed up back in the day.  I remember pounding through 3 seasons of Game of Thrones, 4 seasons of Sopranos, and 3 seasons of Entourage to catch up.  I also watched 3 seasons of Grey’s Anatomy.   I find myself getting tempted by quality sources to watch Breaking Bad and my resistance is waning.  It’s an AMC show and I really like Bryan Cranston.  It’s just I have to watch around 56 hours of it to catch up.  It’s ending in 2 months so I may just wait.  Still, this is what happens when you pass up on a cool little show about an aging cancer carrying science teacher who starts his own meth lab.
  • I also want to give Strikeback(Cinemax) and Hell on Wheels(AMC) a chance.  That’s a combined 40 more hours.  Who has the time to do this other than drug addicts?
  • I am a certified Banshee(Cinemax) fanatic.  I literally can’t get enough of this show and recommend it to anyone curious or needing a different kind of series.  Season 2 just wrapped and premieres in January.
  • Ray Donovan gets better and better every week.  Shocking, violent and full of heart.   The acting on this show is top notch.  Watch now.  8 hours in.
  • Low Winter Sun on AMC(follows Breaking Bad) is worth a look if anything for the fine talents of Film-Addict Character Actor Spotlight feature Mark Strong.  The British actor is all grim heart and brutal stone as a cop covering up a crime he committed out of pure revenge.  It’s not perfect and very slow but this show will only get more tense.
  • Dexter is suffering a from a bad final season.  There I said it.  I won’t spoil much here but I want more from these peeps.  It’s playing like a show that has 2 or 3 seasons to go instead of batting down the hatch and closing up lines of communication.   The heroic killer is always juggling four different things and looking over his shoulder.  I’m starting to think either he will die, his son will perish or the Miami metro department will be blown up and Dexter will accidentally help make it happen.   This show needs rocket fuel in its final weeks.

That’s it.  I’ll keep it slick and cool like that.   No random finishing crap that only takes away from the blunt package.   Sports, movies, music and television.  I am out of bullets.  Come back hungry next time because I will be coming guns hot.

Thanks for stopping by,

Dan Buffa

Cards Make A Move for Axford

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Instant take on this move is the Cards are taking a chance on a former closer who once saved over 40 games in a row.   The Cardinals know all about the once dynamic right arm of John Axford because a few of those saves came against their team.  Axford was a dominant closer as recently as 2011, where he closed 46 of 48 games in taking over for retired saves leader Trevor Hoffman.   In 2010, he came up and helped an ailing Hoffman and closed 24 of 27.  In 2012, the wheels came off.  He blew 9 saves, walked 39 and gave up 10 home runs in less than 70 innings pitched.   He just couldn’t convert the way he used to.   It got so bad that Axford shaved off his trademark Wyatt Earp like mustache and adopted a new approach to the plate.  It wasn’t sad to see because the Brewers are in our division and are a constant foe.  Axford hasn’t improved much in 2013, losing the closer job and when he got the opportunity to shut the door, he has failed in all six attempts.  After plowing through the NL with 70 saves in 75 appearances in 2010-11, Axford has gone 35-50 in the last two seasons.

Guess what Cardinals fans?  He isn’t being brought here to close games or even pitch in high leverage situations.  He’s just another arm who can pitch.  This is John Mozelaik taking a bird with a broken wing off the scrap yard who is still young and durable and giving the tormented pitcher the greatest gift of all time.  Yadi Molina.   The catcher who has turned average aging arms and young raw rookie guns into seasoned vets in less than 5 months.  Mike Matheny and Molina knows how to handle troubled pitchers and will implement Axford into pitching coach Derek Lilloquist’s system.  This is a low liability move for the Cards with a potential upside.  The Cards will pay a little of Axford’s 5 million dollar contract and he is arbitration eligible next season which means the Cards don’t have to bring him back.  This is a good stretch for Mo and the team to make on a guy who was brilliant and confounded hitters only 2 seasons ago.  One wonders if the Brewers collapse in the 2011 postseason, which involved an Axford blown save, affected the right hander at all.

It’s easy to dismiss this deal and cry out for a bigger move.  There are parts of me that want the Cards to at least look at Dan Haren or Kyle Lohse.  However, let’s not doubt Mozelaik’s ability to pull dull diamonds from the woods and turn them into shiny clean cut jewels.   Remember last July when we made a deal for a nobody reliever called Edward Mujica and thought we were dumb to let go of Zach Cox.  Well, Mujica was a dynamic 7th inning bridge and this year has turned into the NL’s second best closer(yes, better than Chapman).  Cox is washing out in Double A for the Marlins.  Axford has a more credible resume than Mujica as he arrives in Pittsburgh today.  He has 106 saves in 4 seasons of work.  He was once a great reliever.  If there is anybody who can find that greatness again, it’s Molina, Lilloquist and Matheny.

Hopefully this means the Fernando Salas era has reached its conclusion.  The ineffective RH can’t seem to pitch an inning without allowing a run and save me his Memphis stats.  Those are minor league hitters and games that mean very little.  All that matters is what he does up here.  He has been crap for a long time.  He isn’t what he once was in 2009.  His fastball is flat and hittable.  His sinker doesn’t do much sinking.   Let’s call it a fair swap of RH talent here.  Axford in and Salas out.  This probably won’t happen but the best thing the Cards can do for Salas is designate him for assignment.

In other news-

*Michael Wacha going to Springfield and not Memphis means he is in line for a Tuesday start in Cincinnati.   Springfield ends play earlier and Wacha will be turned loose.   Tyler Lyons and Carlos Martinez are also candidates but in my mind they both lack the wow factor that we have seen from Wacha’s pitches lately.   The college star deserves a chance to earn that fifth spot because this rotation can use a little lightning.   As much as we don’t want to factor in Adam Wainwright’s season long pitch counts into the equation of the other night’s collapse, we have to be honest and say Waino has been a bit inconsistent in the second half of the season.   The rotation could use more insurance.

*The bigger issue with Wednesday’s 10-0 ass kicking may stem not from the lack of Yadi Molina in the lineup but the missing presence of talented backup Tony Cruz.  Cruz has caught Waino plenty of times and is a better hitter and defensive catcher than Rob Johnson.   The Memphis veteran isn’t a good player.  He can’t hit and his defense is average as best.  The wild pitch that skipped back to the brick the other night would have been smothered by Molina or Cruz and it led to a bigger inning.  Johnson’s ineffectiveness really makes me wonder what Mozelaik didn’t like about John Buck(recently dealt to the Pirates) or another catcher like Kelly Shoppach.  Both of those guys aren’t gold glove catchers or big monster hitters but they are each better than Johnson.  Once Cruz went down, it was time for Mo to find a catcher.  That’s a fact.  The bad thing is it can’t be done now.  The waiver deal expired two days ago.  We can only hope Cruz’s hairline fracture improves and Yadi’s knee doesn’t implode.

*Pete Kozma update.  3-44 in the month of August and rumor has it that his hair is falling out.  The mullet is going down.  His psycho analysis is edging closer to the breaking point.  I feel like Pete is that poor kid in the classroom that the teacher keeps calling on for answers knowing Pete doesn’t have a clue.  Maybe he is the player to be named later in the Axford deal.

*Really hoping Kolten Wong isn’t banished to the bench simply because David Freese had a couple of RBI hits.  Wong is still a threat with his speed and solid defense and in my belief, will hit with more at bats.

*Do we need Dan Haren?  He could boost the rotation but he isn’t required for us to win the division.   Playoffs could be a different story, especially if hitters figure out Joe Kelly with runners on base.  Haren would cost some prospects but offers experience, a hot hand and a guy you can count on in the playoffs.  Do we need Haren?  Does your car need a spare tire on the highway???  It wouldn’t hurt but isn’t a huge important factor right now.  The rotation has shown an ability to bend but not break.  Can we count on them holding it together for the next month and onward?  That’s a dicey question.

The Cards begin the night a game ahead of the Pirates in first place and have the next 9 games against the Reds and Pitt.   This isn’t the season but will definitely tell us which direction we are facing for the final three weeks.   Division crown or wild card probable.  Ask this blogger and I’d rather not deal with a one game playoff again.   The Cards are good enough to win the division.  After that, it’s too hard to tell.  Depends on their play going into the postseason, but even then, the crapshoot begins.  We went into the playoffs playing horrible in 2006 and won it all.  We played fantastic baseball going into the 2011 postseason and won it all.  Same for last year.

Baseball is like life in so many ways.  It’s relative and ongoing.

Thanks for reading,

DLB